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 Replies: 5,649 / Views: 461,577 |
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Valued Member
Canada
293 Posts |
So yup7676, what's your best prediction here. Are we looking at $17 silver or $12 silver in the next while?  Edited by GaryN
05/01/2014 1:42 pm
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
3789 Posts |
Hey Garry
well you know I don't have a crystal ball and giving exact prices, of that I would tell you I'll always be wrong.
However, the more we stay sub 20 here, the higher chances this goes to yearly lows first before anything else.
For now, I think we have this small choppy grind down. The first area to see where we get clues as to how low this is going in the short term is if we break 18.90sh area first.
There's a couple scenarios from there.. we could-
a- drop like a rock with no sort of bounce and re-test yearly lows
b- drop into that area and bounce upwards and do more chop/sideways action
c- slice right through the 18.90ish area, proceed to the yearly lows of silver in the 18.22 area and then the selling really ramps up and we make new FRESH yearly lows below 18.
Its going to take time to see which one plays out. nothing would surprise me but at this point I expect seeing a slow drip down. Shoot, we could see a bounce as well where we do not re-test those 18.90is lows either.
Whats key is to be patient and watch the price action, it is giving plenty of clues, which the biggest clue is that silver continues to slip and is still stuck in a very strong downtrend.
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Pillar of the Community
United Kingdom
548 Posts |
Silver is currently near a 4 year low. It's a horrible part of my portfolio right now.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2168 Posts |
Now if only premiums would go back as they were prior 2010! They were about 5% on junk, now they are still about 15%
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
the thing is... silver is looking very ugly. At some point it has to get to a price point where the market decides that the price reflects the proper pricing to supply and demand.
Price wise, ideally, it would be nice to see it flush out and find an area of support, hold it and base out from there. In other words chop around, go sideways for a long time,,, then move on out higher from there, holding the gains,,, and continuing that price action. That is what you want to see if you want stable floor and higher prices.
we just have to be patient and just watch...
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4333 Posts |
These low prices are a gift.
When I listen to LED ZEPPELIN...so do my neighbors...
Roll hunting since '77
Dirt fishing since '72
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Valued Member
United Kingdom
183 Posts |
pm's could be on the rise, and I thought pm's moved
in the opposite direction to stocks.
HH
edit: could be gazprom wanting june payment upfront
by 16th may from ukraine. my mistake, stocks have dropped.
Edited by HawkHybrid
05/02/2014 10:59 am
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
Here's the bounce I mentioned after describing three possible scenarios.
... and that is all this really is, a bounce. Its been following this same pattern which is selling, then a bounce, chop/sideways then a move lower.
to me, this silver price action is like a slow motion train wreck...
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Valued Member
United States
405 Posts |
Yup, so are you saying that this bounce is a bad thing? It will fall back down and test the 18.75 range again?
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
@CJ
Yes I am saying this bounce really means nothing, it was to be expected. The way price has been acting has been to dribble lower, bounce, chop/sideways action, drop, bounce.
Furthermore, the price action of the market has been to sell every single bounce for many months now. Nothing has really changed.
These kind of volatile bounces really dont hold for much or long.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3843 Posts |
I guess the question is: At what point of the cycle are we? Personally I think that we haven't quite reached the despair stage yet although we are getting closer.  Edited by Joe2007
05/04/2014 2:29 pm
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1026 Posts |
Who cares I have at least 400 ounces and plan to keep that till I die and then my kids can fight over it, unless the economy falls apart then silver will be the real money once again as it has always been down through the centuries.
Why drive yourself crazy if you are worried about the ups and downs then you should not buy PM.
Just my 2 cents
Personally I still feel the economy has not seen it's worst I feel the bubble will brake impossible not to now.
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Valued Member
United Kingdom
183 Posts |
I just can't work out how the us plan to solve
it's $17T debt when it's running a yearly deficit.
won't a default eliminate huge amounts of trade?
HH
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Valued Member
United States
174 Posts |
I think the common thought is that since we are the global leader, we cannot go belly up.
I think the next 10 years will show differently, perhaps not belly up, but several slips down, allowing other countries to become more of the go to currency.
I don't put all my eggs into any basket, however, Gold/Silver have been around for thousands of years as currency and there is NOTHING else that is globally valuable and recognized.
I've got a few AU/AG eggs in a basket. When demand hits hard, I don't think we will see a gentle swing up, I think it'll be textbook supply/demand situation, and will be hard to come by at any price. We merely got a taste of it a few years ago, high premiums, low supplies. On a global basis, if everyone bought a couple ounces, supply would be tapped out.
I have no certainty in this happening, if I did, i'd move some more eggs over. I just already want to have mine in hand (without NEEDING to ever get rid of it). My next big buy will be if prices drop 70% and then 50% of where they are today, but never risk any money I need.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
Obviously everyone is buying PMs because they are hoping to make money or have some sort of success as a "hedge" (which using PMs is a laughable hedge but that I;ll save for another time)so its important to care about the pricing.
If you are buying to "hedge" where you buy will determine how effective your "hedge" will be. If you are buying as investment, where you buy will determine how well you will do on your return.
It is a standard and common rule that when one speculates, a good investment, or a good speculator, will show a profit from the start. So if you been buying at higher prices from where we are at and are in the hole, the odds are stacked against you,,,, and I mean big time.
Furthermore, time doesn't necessarily guarantee a safety net, in fact one of the biggest mistakes is saying "I wont be selling for 100 years". Well two things happen there- 1. when you need the money is exactly when you will be underwater with your initial line and you will pull out and 2. chances are high that a long time period comes and goes and your investment in PMs doesn't absolutely ZERO.
Commodities, especially volatile ones like PMs do not act the same as stocks. You do not paid a yield. On top of that, whatever your opinions are regarding PMs and the "how, why" they will or should do this will be wrong. Only the market can decide and know that with certainty.
So to ignore whats happening now and insist you are in for the long haul .... when you are buying in the wrong spots, will be a very painful thing to go through.
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Replies: 5,649 / Views: 461,577 |
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Posted 05/01/2014 2:44 pm
