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Pillar of the Community
2087 Posts |
Quote:
I dont really see a correlation between the stock market and PMs, and despite the world being a volatile place, I really dont think that will help silver and gold, just look at all the events that have been happening for weeks at a time and gold and silver just continue to grind lower. So I think its going to take something different than just volatile times for it to get going. I have watched the gold price movements since 1981. There used to be a negative correlation between the gold market and the stock market. However ETFs seem to have ended that loose relationship. Now gold is traded on the stock market. If anything gold now looks to be positively correlated with the stock market. ETFs are probably making gold much more volatile simply because they trade on the stock market. IMHO ETFs make the chances of large movements in any direction much higher. ETFs only magnify the momentum they don't create it ( so far) I have said this before. With out ETFs gold would more likely be trading around US$800.00 ( yes the market sets the price: all I am saying the ETFS have been an added factor in the market) As the price drops ETFs add strongly to the downwards momentum. US$800.00 or even lower is quite possible if panic sets in in regards to ETFs. |
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
3789 Posts |
I have traded for a while now, and the same patterns exist, repeat, come and go and what is known for sure is correlations do not always work hand in hand all the time, they come and go.
However, what I was referring to was that there seems to be some thought that because stocks are high, gold goes down, so therefore, when stocks go down, gold will go up.
That remains to be seen. I have seen gold and stocks rise together. I have seen stocks and gold go down together. I have seen stocks go down and gold go up.
So it comes and goes, its never set in stone.
BTW, gold is getting smoked today. Dont buy today if you are feeling an urge, just wait and be patient.
There will be PLENTY of deals coming and for a while. I been getting pounded it seems always on a daily basis being told " best deal of the year" and "our special price while supplies last". Yea right whatever. Please just wait and you will see much better prices with less risk.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1590 Posts |
I have to agree, there are a lot of ads wanting you to buy, buy buy! I get the impression that a lot of the bigger sellers are trying to unload their stock before the prices crash. If they, the big boys, really thought Silver and Gold were in a dip they would be quietly buying, while keeping their prices stable. One of the guys I deal with in California emailed me today and offered a $1000 face bag for $15,000 and a $1000 face bag of Morgan and Peace dollars for $19,000. Morgans still have a premium, though it is going down; and I expect it to go down even more. However; a fair price for 90 would probably be closer to 10 percent over melt. And with melt going down so fast........ Needless to say I turned both down. |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4333 Posts |
Holy smokes JMK that's high, just checking Provident, $1k face 90% bag for $13,763.
When I listen to LED ZEPPELIN...so do my neighbors...
Roll hunting since '77
Dirt fishing since '72
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Pillar of the Community
United States
6478 Posts |
Silver in the sixteens now. Gold under 1200. Wow.
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Valued Member
United States
299 Posts |
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Valued Member
United States
98 Posts |
I would have to agree with yup7676. I think silver will go further down to $10 in next few months along with gold under $1000 as well. I'm tempted to buy more silver now but will wait. I just wish I saw yup7676 posting few months ago :(
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4333 Posts |
It may fall to $10, but will any physical silver be available at that price?
When I listen to LED ZEPPELIN...so do my neighbors...
Roll hunting since '77
Dirt fishing since '72
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Pillar of the Community
United States
759 Posts |
A common theme in this thread is either directly or indirectly trying to determine what to do with PMs. It's also obvious that most posters are going to do what they want to do regardless. That's fine; its your money. Let me just request this though...when the downtrend finally reverses, go forward in your investment life having learned the lessons of a vicious downtrend and be able to recognize the signs and apply this recognition in the future. The results will likely enable you to realize significantly more profits and avoid more losses than whatever this PM chapter of your life produces.
To be honest, deep inside I'm not even sure If I fully believe in technical analysis, but I do know this: whether it's through merit or a self fulfilling prophecy of major market players, it is a valuable tool to consider. Things still look ugly for gold and silver based on the charts. I've learned to listen. Good luck all.
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Pillar of the Community
2087 Posts |
Gold and silver are commodities.I believe if you are going to invest in them you have to treat them like any other investment. know when to buy, know when to hold and know when to sell. A prudent "player" will know what they want to buy at and what they will sell at. Such a player will have two sell points. One set so as to lock in profits, the other sell point is set to mitigate against loss ( know what you can afford to loose) I started buying in 2003 The market became so volatile in 2009 ( as set by my risk tolerance) that I sold half my holding. The profit paid off a mortgage and render the remaining half of my holding "free" ie gold would have to go to US$-50.00 ( thats negative) for me to make a loss. I recall some gold bugs telling me that I was an idiot.....I could have made heaps more money. The fact is they still have all the gold they bought at the same time.....and the gold price is now currently worth what it was when I sold. That means, in my book, they have made a loss as they haven't even got the interest they might have gained if they had just put the money in a interest bearing account.
So for the person saying "buy buy buy" I have to ask whats your exit strategy?... my bet is you don't have one and probably don't even see the need for one.
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Valued Member
United States
174 Posts |
great points Austrokiwi.
I do have an exit strategy, it's similar to yours was: I started buying both gold and silver (physical) around $1400/$30 respectively. I've been increasing my buy as the price drops. As it continues to fall, I buy more. When it starts to rise I slow my buying until $1400/$30ish. When it hit $2000/$40ish, I start to sell. When it hits $2800/60ish, I will dump 1/2. The remainder I sit on for longer term (Post retirement/etc).
Yes, there are assumptions in there (that it WILL climb), but I have only put in fun money, so I will never need to sell it. Might take 4 years to reverse or 40.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
couple of responses to leave here-
@jimkendall - I am sensing, from all the offers and constant flooding of emails and seeing the offers at sites, that dealers want to unload, unload, unload and unload into declining prices. What I cant grasp for the life of me is why are people being so unwise and buying into these declines?
IF you cant resist the urge to buy, wouldnt you at least want to let the decline drop and then buy... all I know for sure is buying into these declines, this grind down, is a losing proposition for anyone buying this decline.
@fistfulladirt - there is ZERO shortage of silver and gold. No one is going to flat run out of these PMs anytime. You will always find it, and CHEAP. Heck I remember buying american eagle silver dollars for 7-9 bucks back in the day lol, they had TONS of them at the coin shop lol
@onebowl- TA is not to be viewed as a 100% probability. There is no such thing in the markets. TA tells us the past not the future. However, TA is still the only and best way to profit from markets because the price action, which TA looks into, never LIES. Price never ever lies.
When we look for trends, momentum, breakouts in terms of price however, those are rarely wrong and we can certainly benefit from them. You are correct tho, I sure hope everyone, remembers this price action in gold and silver for the future. I too am certain that the vast majority, even tho they know and its been proven silver and gold are in strong downtrends, will continue to buy PMs.. but hey its their money, not mine.
Like Austrokiwi said, most folks have no exit strategy. I can assure you all that the market players already exited a long time ago and there is no "secret buying" there is no accumulation, rather their continues to be steady distribution. Its a shame to know that a lot of folks here even if they sold right now, they could still bank 20, 30% returns. You can always buy later and lower.
Its a tragedy that the vast majority are going to sit on their gold and silver and not sell, watch it go full circle, then talk about how they wished they sold or talk about how they had doubled their money as it steady grinds down.
I hope I am wrong. I hate really to see anyone lose money. But its a real shame. I just dont see a rapid rise again nor do I see a return to higher prices in a matter of years.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
606 Posts |
Yup,
You have provided a lot of interesting advice. On variable, and everyone accounts for it differently, has been an unexpected positive for me.
As someone only interesting in coin collecting for two months now, I notice for me that:
1. When I buy a coin, it feels like a real purchase. I know that sounds odd, but if I buy a stock, I don't feel like this at all. In other words, I spend less, because of the coin collecting.
2. When I buy a coin, I don't even think about selling it and buying something else. For me, not only am I spending less on other junk (newest gadget that chops carrots or something), but I consider the money gone forever. If I were saving up money in the bank, I would probably end up spending it on the super deluxe carrot chopper of something.
I realize this shows weakness and a lack of discipline on my part, but is is my reality. I also don't know the price of enjoyment or how to quantify that as well.
What I am describing is a little bit at a time however, and not a big % of investing. Given the costs to get in, store, and get out, I don't think silver as a pure investment will ever be right for me. I do think I will make a lot of money off it however, for the reasons mentioned in this post.
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
576 Posts |
Part of my long term investment plan was to invest heavily in a great start up company that holds the patients for and manufactures a great "super deluxe carrot chopper". After reading MontansCMRs post I know that I am on the right track, you just can't buy one.<<<<<grin>>>>.
cheers all,
This is one of my favorite topics.
Liverpool
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Pillar of the Community
United States
5857 Posts |
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Posted 10/03/2014 09:52 am
@Liverpool
