What Happens To Gold And Silver Next? Look Out Below?

@Domain555

I am solely on the technicals. Fundies really dont mean much to me. To me, the price action is what is pure truth.

I dont get paid to analyze why something is going to go up or down. I simple wait based on trends to take or start a position.

More specifically tho, I am a momentum based trader, trend following. Therefore whats of keen interest to me is buying 52 highs, selling 52 lows, and selling or buying breaks of trend lines out of long bases, or periods of consolidation. I have been doing this for years now, and this pattern in gold and silver, are long term trends, downtrends for now.

and yes, sometimes I will go off of both daily and weekly charts.


No bother at all here in asking, appreciate your feed back.

@Gothic

Hmmm, well lets breakdown what Gothic is saying and I want to show everyone why he is incorrect ,, which is totally fine and hey there is nothing wrong in buying PMs, just this isn't the time or cycle to be investing in them.

First of all he relaying and quoting CFTC COT data that is old. I hope you do realize Gothic that by the time the data and positions of traders is released it usually a week old.. which in our context is basically like sharing info thats years old in terms of markets. So sorry to say, but you cannot guide your opinions based on position data that is a week old or more.

Next- the USD has hit yearly highs and is sitting again at nearly yearly highs. It is in a clear uptrend. This trend started out months ago and the momentum is up, momentum does not sputter and die instantly. Anyone who is selling short the dollar is getting trampled and will continue to get trampled. So good luck with thinking the commercials are "right". One of the first things you understand in trading and in commodities is you do not hinge your opinion on published data.(IF it was that easy to decide what was happening next with an asset because such and such was positioned and it was broadacast everywhere then everyone would be billionaires lol) This is the same sort of rebuttal PM bugs used back when gold and silver first started their decline,,, that the "commercials are net long" and therefore prices would rise. Wrong.

3rd- EVERYONE loses money in the markets. No one skirts losses.

4- Waiting for confirmation and signs of a bottom are what all institutions and profitable traders that have experience do all the time. No one says "I am going to man up today and buy a lot of silver because it will come back". Sorry but no one in the market buys based opinions or blindly guessing that it will come back.

5- Commodities are extremely volatile and do not attract the same sort of investors as do stocks or bonds as an example. They do not have the same type metrics used in stocks and bonds. In stocks and bonds, you have metrics that can be used to value a stock and based on that some institutions will average in. Sometimes a fund will get involved and do shareholder activism on a declining stock.

But again, this is done because the fund is able to pin point something of value within the company to push the shares higher.

commodities do not have this. They simply work on supply and demand. period. That in turns means there will not be value investors or bargain hunters looking to buy in the commodity space.

I say it again- buying a declining asset does not result and or end well.

@domain555

Yea thats pretty much it, its very long hours starting with preparation, waiting, trading the sessions and then it starts all over again...

thats pretty much me too. I trade my size by market conditions, set ups, patterns that have worked in the past, I never trade unless I get confirmation, and I never go into a trade without knowing what I will risk and use as my stop.

I trade only when I have an edge, and I maximize my edge so that those trades are very profitable so that when I hit a trade that doesn't work, the loss is very minor.


Its a tough biz. REquires a lot of patience, waiting and discipline. I will be more wrong than I am right. But when I Am right by the market it, the rewards are very big and make up for any minor loss.

The dollar will continue to rise, the trend is up

Coal names arent just down this week, they have been in a powerful long term dowtrend is mid 2011

this isn't the "turn" of the week for PMs, they also are just following along the path of least resistance, the downtrend.

:D

oh and btw- correlations work and sometimes they dont work. A weak dollar does not guarantee strong commodities, as any trader knows. But of course a printed article failed to mention that....

Sorry my friend but you are wrong. Trends always work. Trends in financial markets go back to the opening of all exchanges, as far back as over 100 years.

Its ok tho, you dont have to believe me, in the end, as a trader and someone who does this day in and day out, for a while now, I am very confident of what I do and say.

You are free to believe what you want to :D Just dont say I didnt warn you....

Yup--thank you for all your contributions here and I wish you the best.

@silverbug

I see you are using one of the ETFs from Toronto exchange, for a decline in the gold PM price which is good, good job my friend!

I am glad to see fellow members here benefit from the decline in prices. My thoughts and intentions here have been to save my fellow community members and friends from suffering the grief off seeing purchases go lower on them and that money can be made on both sides of the coin, pun intended lol

To all of you, please dont get me wrong. I am not saying I dislike the metals. I really do like gold and silver, I love collecting coins of gold and silver. I am not against gold and silver.

However, there is a time to be buying them, selling them. The worst feeling ever is to buy something and watch it fall in value, ESPECIALLY if one is investing and looking for some sort of return down the road.

There will be a time when this downtrend stops and ends. But time and patience will be needed, and it will worth the wait.