Hey yup, No need for one oh one (101) commodity lesson and or supply and demand. We are dealing with conspiracy theories, stale news etc as they be too cool for school.
Stale news - For those following - Gold Miners de hedged back in 2009 to 2011 area. And they cannot hedge as they would be hurting themselves more doing it (tying to RE hedge). Do some DD.
As I said before, this is coin collecting forum and NOT and investment forum.
Nothern, I don't think we will see 200 in gold. However I see more pain in commodities. And who knows what the bare chest Russian horse rider who collects Siberian tigers is going to do next.
This youtube vid is about Nickel / silver etc which is kinda interesting "but" go to the 6:40 min mark and listen to what he says about Goverments "Never Lying" about a pending dollar devalue.
Gothic might like this one...
Oh ya this guy also bought 1 million dollar worth of nickels.
WELL that was quick... I was expecting a bit more of basing and range bound trading. However, gold really managed to drop out of the current range today, silver is testing the lower end of the range.
With gold breaking lower out of the range, I think that increases the probabilities for gold to continue a grind to its yearly lows and from there its going to be interesting to see if it once again crashes past it or bounces. Have to wait and see, it would not be a surprise to see gold drop more before bouncing.
The brings me to silver. Does it hold on the lower end? Or is it going to follow gold lower? Again, have to wait and see.
I see the overnight futures low of December 1st as the line in the sand. Seeing these are the yearly lows, coming back to visit these and probing this area in price could very well bring fresh new yearly lows in gold and silver.
As always, take things day by day and be patient, the price action will give the clues we need.
Quote: Ceylon - Bas, you looking at candles for the bear flag?
Yes, on gold - daily candle/closing prices.
The silver pattern is similar although a little different due to the down spike around 1st Dec. If we discount that move there is also a bear flag working off either closing prices or wicks. Bear flag also on the hourly - so more downside to come IMO
Yea I know what you mean. I figured I would do that for those that are out there who do not believe conspiracies. Hey, all I can do is share what I know and see everyday, what I know what to be true.
IT is interesting you mention about stale, old news. The news about the hedging is completely useless. Two reasons- 1. The report is based on old data, Q3 data,, we are not in Q3 anymore so that report is essentially, as I have always said, OLD and OUT OF DATE. Of course no one realizes this but hey what can I say lol. 2. Its nothing but a paid research report, I have access to countless paid reports, you ignore all that stuff, it means nothing.
The fact of the matter is if you look up the SEC filings of the miners, they are actively hedging and active in the futures market to a certain degree. The entire commodity complex is full of active market participants from a wide range. No one is using the futures market to hold back prices nor does the futures market have any capability to add to the "supply" of commodities.
But I agree with you, the vast majority of people who believe in wild conspiracies won't ever grasp that. Very sad if you ask me. It is also a shame that many folks do not know how to share actionable real time data and information. Remember my friends, markets are working in the now and into the future, 3-6 months out. Any and all reports that come out are old and out dated, pretty much DOA. First thing you learn and are taught as a trader. Again, a pretty simple concept but it is lost on the vast majority of the public.
For the small amount of time I sit in front of a TV it would be a huge expense.
I'm even thinking I can mange without one now. In future TV's will be almost obsolete - (like land lines). Smart phones, tablets notepads - portable devices will be where you watch things - and on demand.
Gold is still moving sideways in a retracement pattern (possibly forming another bear flag), so I would expect a reversal down again around 1190 - initial drop to 1150 perhaps. Movements may be a bit erratic due to the holiday period.
Expecting silver to roll down soon as well.
There will be a bottom eventually, and I'll be buying some
Quote: For the small amount of time I sit in front of a TV it would be a huge expense.
I'm even thinking I can mange without one now. In future TV's will be almost obsolete - (like land lines). Smart phones, tablets notepads - portable devices will be where you watch things - and on demand.
You are kidding right? If not, you may be in the minority. Cellular-based internet is very expensive if one uses any amount of data. Land line based data delivery is much cheaper. TV's aren't going away any time soon, and I sure don't want to give up my 70" monitor for a 20" laptop, that's for sure. Can't wait for the holigraphic technology that's on it's way -
When I listen to LED ZEPPELIN...so do my neighbors... Roll hunting since '77 Dirt fishing since '72
Quote: You are kidding right? If not, you may be in the minority. Cellular-based internet is very expensive if one uses any amount of data. Land line based data delivery is much cheaper. TV's aren't going away any time soon, and I sure don't want to give up my 70" monitor for a 20" laptop, that's for sure. Can't wait for the holigraphic technology that's on it's way -
Just based on my 3 children (aged between 19-40) - who never seem to watch TV. (Two of them dont own TV's). I watch about 3 hours a week, and one reason I dont watch because adverts are on every 10 minutes.
Perhaps because in Oceania the number of free channels is very small, it might be one reason. Although it is possible to pay for SKY cable which gives a reasonable number of channels. Also in Oceania the weather is mostly good and people are out doing things in nature.
TV watching might vary from country to country, and depending on age, but TV sales are documented as down 10% pa since 2012.
"Today's GDP just underscores that on a relative basis the U.S. just looks very good, and all the stars are really aligned for the dollar," said Camilla Sutton, chief currency strategist at Scotiabank. "Not only do economic and fundamental data continue to surprise in terms of their divergence from other places around the world, but the Fed increasingly seems like one of the few central banks that will hike rates in 2015." The one potential issue is that the bullish dollar trade is so deeply ingrained in the market consensus. "It's very, very hard to find anyone who's willing to talk about being a dollar bear, and it is a concern when you can't find someone on the other side of a trade," Sutton said, adding, "But currencies have a way of trending for long periods of time, and it certainly seems that there's still more upside for the dollar here." --Alex Rosenberg, "As American Economy Soars, U.S. Dollar Roars", http://www.cnbc.com, December 23, 2014.
The trend is underway The risk is gone Don't be alarmed The Fed will save the day. :)
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Posted 12/22/2014 8:14 pm
