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What Happens To Gold And Silver Next? Look Out Below?

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Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts
 Posted 02/23/2015  2:48 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add yup7676 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
http://www.ebay.com/itm/2013-1-oz-S...em1c4e8d65e0

the above auction is an excellent reason why you do not want to be messing around with a commodity in a downtrend nor do you want to commit large amounts of capital to buying silver and gold in a downtrend.

This gentleman took roughly a 50% plus haircut. Everyone says they dont plan on selling and will hold "forever" but that often will not be the case. It pains me to see someone have to take a huge loss. There was no reason at all to buy 400 ounces and take such a loss...

Ignoring price action is very painful and no one can beat the market.
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Silverworld11's Avatar
613 Posts
 Posted 02/24/2015  04:31 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Silverworld11 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Yupper your a big downer. His business is not your business Yupper or anyone's business. I am pretty sure nobody ask u for yet more examples of what u do not like to see people do with their Fiat and Silver.

Did u rub it in his face or did you just want to hold R hands here on the forum with this so called bummer story?

When Yen the Hen,gets it on with D.C. this week,please hook up a chart if you would.
Edited by Silverworld11
02/24/2015 04:33 am
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macmercury's Avatar
United States
5856 Posts
 Posted 02/24/2015  05:34 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add macmercury to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Besides the 50% plus loss, the ebay seller paulinoe2409 has 50% positive feedback, seller sold the same lot to a winner not long ago and back out for $7500, most likely it would be the last time he/she will sell with that same account.
Valued Member
BluegrassRiver's Avatar
United States
324 Posts
 Posted 02/24/2015  07:16 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add BluegrassRiver to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Yupper , we appreciate you pointing out the example on ebay. Most of us did not see this. It is our business because it is a public sale on ebay. The seller has credential problems as pointed out by macmercury. I don't think the invoice is legitimate. He is trying to take advantage of buyers inclination to get a great deal by profiting off someone else's mistakes. It is very tempting. While we don't want to lose in a downtrend we all know it will eventually become an uptrend. So, we try to learn where the bottom could be and buy accordingly.
Valued Member
realmoney's Avatar
United States
110 Posts
 Posted 02/24/2015  10:27 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add realmoney to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
the above auction is an excellent reason why you do not want to be messing around with a commodity in a downtrend nor do you want to commit large amounts of capital to buying silver and gold in a downtrend.


I like to buy things when their prices are low. Will gold and silver go lower? Who knows? But they are lower than they have been the past 5 years or so.

Not a whole lot of places to put your dollars these days. Most the markets (Dow, real estate, etc.) are at or near all-time highs. Certainly its not a good time to put your dollars there.
Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts
 Posted 02/24/2015  11:44 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add yup7676 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Simple textbook trading 101: Yearly highs beget even higher highs. Yearly lows beget newer yearly lows. This never changes and has not changed in markets since their inception.

The stock market is the place to be putting your money at currently and has been for several years now. Trends run much longer than anyone thinks possible. New all time highs are a buy sign, not a sell signal, they foreshadow even higher prices to come.

In financial markets, there are no such things as bargains. When assets are being sold and hitting yearly lows, financial institutions are exiting the door and walking away. We have seen this with gold and silver. They are not bargains at these prices. You cannot apply the same metrics of buying something on sale or reduced at the store when it comes to financial assets. It does not work that way.

Sorry, but absolutely no financial institution were buying gold and silver as it made yearly lows. No, they were net sellers.

I have always said it and it remains true, the price action is the most important metric to follow and pay attention. Without it, you cannot win the game.

BTW as far as the auction, I did not originally see the feedback, which is a good point. Nevertheless, I will point out that 2013 sheets of silver pandas are still 23% below their initial offerings.

Bottom line: anyone who thought the bottom was in 2 years ago and bought a sheet of Pandas is still underwater. No bargain there lol
Valued Member
United States
174 Posts
 Posted 02/24/2015  11:45 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add LeoS to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Good point, realmoney. This has been working down for a few years, and might just keep dropping or stay flat for another 20 years, who knows?!?!?
However, none of us want to kick ourselves waiting around for a bottom that will not be easily noticeable. If you look back a few weeks ago, I believe YUP was potentially saying the bottom could have passed us and we were on an uptrend. The other tough part, is that if say the bottom is here at $16, not recognizing it until at $19, 20% potential was lost. I do also realize that if a 20% drop is soon to come, that could also be a loss.

I buy because it's low, and it's money i'd spend on other things that are consumables (dinners out, iphone, computer,etc), so this has been good discipline for me. I miss nothing I haven't bought, and still have some value in what I did.

I am not an "all in" kinda guy, so my % of investments in AU/AG are small in comparison to entire portfolio.
Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts
 Posted 02/24/2015  12:00 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add yup7676 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
@Leo

Yea I still think, until the December 1st 2014 overnight lows are violated, this can avoid going lower. If those give way, the chances for much lower prices are pretty high and there will be good opportunities to sell short silver and gold as they fall.

To me, I am not interested and could care less what happens to gold and silver. Shoot I made my money on a trade weeks ago when it ripped higher and then jumped out as it stalled. TO me, the big money is not made in catching bottoms or tops, that is a suckers game and cannot be done.

My big money is made in catching the move when it is confirmed to start, whether that is selling short or buying an asset on a break of a certain price.

With so many things to trade everyday, gold and silver are nothing but numbers to me and thats it. I have no emotional attachment to them as others have.
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mdpmedia's Avatar
United States
3546 Posts
 Posted 02/24/2015  1:31 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add mdpmedia to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
If my conversion math is accurate, currently Greece owes the European Bank just over $ 450 Billion (with a capital B) US dollars in debt.

Also this bank refuses to lend more $ until Greece enacts some pretty severe austerity measures.

Logically, it shouldn't be outrageous to hypothesize that a ripple effect throughout the world 'could' conceivably transpire pending millions of Greeks gobbling up gold because of the possibility that non-government-owned gold may become outlawed.

Look back at the FDR move in 1933.
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Domain555's Avatar
United States
1804 Posts
 Posted 02/24/2015  1:47 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Domain555 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
mdpmedia


Quote:
If my conversion math is accurate, currently Greece owes the European Bank just over $ 450 Billion (with a capital B) US dollars in debt.

Also this bank refuses to lend more $ until Greece enacts some pretty severe austerity measures.

Logically, it shouldn't be outrageous to hypothesize that a ripple effect throughout the world 'could' conceivably transpire pending millions of Greeks gobbling up gold because of the possibility that non-government-owned gold may become outlawed.

Look back at the FDR move in 1933.



Very good point.

We have no Gold, but our wedding rings.

Even FDR let you get you ring(s)

FDR locked your safety boxes in your bank, if I remember correctly. If your gold was with other things like wills or deeds, you were not alowed to get the papers, without a GOV person looking and ready to grab your GOLD coins. Please correct me if I am not right.
Valued Member
United States
174 Posts
 Posted 02/24/2015  6:59 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add LeoS to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Other economies bring up another perspective. It's fine to say (and think) that U$D is the go to. However, if I did live in a more insecure economy and had any nest egg, i'd be buying gold and silver like no one's business. Yes, the big investors can buy U$D, but I bet the average Joey in Greece cannot. I bet he could find some gold though..... I wonder how/if this could have a longer term impact.
Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts
 Posted 02/24/2015  7:25 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add yup7676 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Actually, the average Joe can indeed get himself some dollars or dollar exposure.

He can buy contracts on the futures market as they do have retail accounts that would allow you to park it in dollars, you can also buy the safety of US T-bills.

I personally would not go to gold and silver for protection. I would go right to the dollar and T-bills.
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realmoney's Avatar
United States
110 Posts
 Posted 02/24/2015  7:38 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add realmoney to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
personally would not go to gold and silver for protection. I would go right to the dollar and T-bills.


I would agree for the short term. The EU is crumbling and these investors will park their wealth in dollars...for awhile. This investing basically a game of musical chairs. You don't want to be holding fiat when the music stops.
Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts
 Posted 02/24/2015  7:53 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add yup7676 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I'll stick with dollars period. They are not going anywhere. I am not going to run to silver and gold.

the USD is where I will park it at. There will not be a breakdown. Everyone keeps saying that many countries own gold. That is true but also when you mention that, you should also mention that all world countries own by far, USD as their BIGGEST currency holdings.

I have no horse in this race but I do know that it is worthless to bank on any sort of long lasting, nuclear Armageddon financial crisis.

The fact of the matter is even if, let us say it "was" fiat... you cannot over power or go against CB's.

As a trader, rule number one you go with is follow price action. IF gold and silver end up being safe havens along side the USD and US T-Bills, so long as price action confirms it, then sure putting some into gold and silver would make sense.

To me tho, to buy a declining asset doesn't make sense as my years of experience have shown me and my bank account that you make money in markets by following where they are going and riding that trend in whatever the direction is. You don no put money where it is not going anywhere or going in the direction you "think" it should go.

Going against the market or buying and holding, especially a commodity that clearly is out of favor, is not wise financial sense. I can see maybe someone buying a roll or two a year of silver. But outside of that, buying regularly a declining asset just isn't the best use of anyone's money.

I certainly wouldn't be using your guys money to buy and silver or gold on a regular basis, I'd be putting it work in areas that are working right now. AFter, I am pretty sure everyone that buys gold and silver do it with the intention that it increases in value.
Valued Member
realmoney's Avatar
United States
110 Posts
 Posted 02/24/2015  8:18 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add realmoney to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Yup,

You say the dollar is where 'you park it at', then say you don't have a horse in the race, which is it? I do agree you cannot overpower the central banks. They will fail. It happens 100% of the time. Fiat currencies cannot last.

As for following price action. That would work in free markets. Unfortunately, there are 0 free markets out there. Just look at the demand for gold and silver. The physical stuff has been shattering records. It's the 'paper' gold and silver markets that have been keeping the price low. I do not consider myself a trader. In fact, I believe that most traders will get burned, just like they do in every recession or depression. Most are not on the inside and do not know when the strings will be pulled.

Since you claim to be a trader, I say to you good luck. As for me, I am not a trader. I buy a little here and there, but for the most part I make enough money to get by. Since I do not have a 401k, don't 'own' a home, and do not have stocks recessions have very little effect on my life.

Gold and silver are also not a declining asset. If you believe so, I'll give 5 crisp dollar bills for a roll of dimes (pre 1965 of course). There may be some peaks and valleys, but for thousands of years gold and silver have HELD there value.
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