What Happens To Gold And Silver Next? Look Out Below?

I have been sharing this observation for a while now, as others have mentioned on this thread like Domain555 that PMs are absolutely doing nothing.

It really isn't surprising tho. For the past few years with all the world events that have been happening and none of them result in any sort of reversal for gold and silver.

The market clearly doesn't see a need going forward for gold and silver to be bought and without steady buyers, gold and silver will continue to flop around and remain in their downtrends.

What is even more scary is how most everyone wants to keep buying silver as it drops. The rush to buy on days when prices drop is not the time to do it because you are not getting a deal from dealers and you arent getting a deal from the market as prices continue to go lower.

Again, I would be very careful buying around here. The best thing would be to keep saving and saving until there is more clarity.

Looks like we got a range here developing, as we didnt see any sort of follow through selling on Wednesday.

With Friday our last day here of the week, I would be hard pressed to think anything pushes it lower but we'll see.

Just a quick note on numbers for this week-

To me, so far, just another range developing, in this case its just one lower range after another as gold and silver slowly breakdown in their downtrends.

Gold- for this week, keep an eye if it breaks 1145.90

Silver- for this week keep an eye if it breaks 14.62

Should be interesting to see how long the premiums over spot on silver stay higher. Will the premium continue to go up or will it go back down? Only time will tell :)

I find it interesting how so many people are advising AGAINST buying silver because the price is low and dropping.

Isn't buy low-sell high like the first rule of purchasing commodities? It seems like if we bought a pile of silver fifteen years ago then we would have seen super high returns five years ago.

@tbolts10

I really no clue, none. Even if I guessed, I would be totally wrong. What has worked for me and as I was taught was continue with the trend until it says otherwise, kind of the old "guilty until proven innocent."

It is pretty clear from all the price action that prices are going to keep going lower. It has been slow grinding price action that keeps moving lower and getting closer to the yearly lows. We settle into a lower range each time, chop/sideways price action and price drops. There is zero evidence that price wants to stop going down.

My strategy has always been to follow the trend, stick with the momentum and avoid focusing on where it will end up. There are many reasons for this, one being psychological, as it would be better for the mind to be in tune and alert to the change in trend/price rather than fixated on a certain price and expectation of it which may never come to fruition.


Buy low, sell high has been and is always taken out of context by people in general. I have repeated this many times over and over but again in this order here are the reasons why "buy low, sell high" doesn't apply to silver and gold-

1- how low is low enough? Ask the people who bought monster boxes at even $30 an oz for silver and ask them if they got a bargain? Was 30 low enough? Surely if 30 was low enough why not then back up the truck at 25, at 20 and why not now at 15? Anyone who has bought "low" expecting to turn over a profit is deeply underwater.

2- Buy low, sell high doesn't work when you have an asset that is in downtrend. Price will continue to go lower from the initial purchases. By the time the trend changes one will either have run out of money, lost all heart in buying each and every dip or one might even just sell at a loss out of frustration.

3- Commodities are not investments. They are regulated by the simple law of supply and demand. In fact, in some cases they are worse than a stock, because at least with a solid staple stock that has a long history of paying dividends, at least you are getting paid something while you wait. With commodities, you get nothing but increased risk of loss while you wait.

4- Everyone says they can wait it out, that their time horizon is decades. Unfortunately, life brings many unexpected twists and turns and it is exactly when you need the money that most that you will most likely have to liquidate, therefore not allowing you that time you were counting on.

The financial markets do not work on buy low, sell higher. The markets only make a move when there is a solid, good reason to buy. In most cases it is buy high to sell higher. That is done as a safety net, let the markets do the heavy lifting FIRST and then follow.

Now I know everyone will say: 'but yea but by then, its already high". This is why we pay attention to price first, as proper entry points allow us to buy high, avoiding the pain of buying too late and later allow an exit in a proper manner. This is how it has been done for decades and decades now.

Look, I was buying gold when it was in the mid 300s, mid 500s, and my last purchases were in the 700's. I was not buying when it went lower, I was buying as it went higher, laddering in. I saw the mistakes and was taught that you do not average down, especially in a downtrend, you cannot win, at all. So again, in a downtrend, trying to buy every low is going to end up being an expensive and frustrating experience. But hey, its not money, I can only repeat the warnings and leave the readers to decide on their own.

Finally, yes, I have been tracking MCM versus spot prices now for a while and while I wont go deeply into this right now when I have more time in the future I wish to publish a sort of study, how MCM and other dealers ratchet up prices higher when PM prices drop lower and how they often do not follow closely PM prices.

The best time to buy according to my data mining and tracking, is when markets are in lull and doing nothing. Dealers tend to move back on the premiums. I suspect this is because when prices do nothing, everyone loses interest in buying and dealers, who need to keep moving inventory, roll back the premiums.

Obviously there is a psychological connection between PM price increases and decreases that triggers a "buy" signal in the mind of stackers and others who like PMs. The dealers know this and make use of it. Why there is a rush to buy silver and gold when prices drop is beyond me. It is not like you are getting a deal as prices are going to lower in a downtrend.

@Connor

I appreciate your kind comments and encouragement, thank you.

Besides trading and being involved in various asset classes everyday, my interest spills into coins. I do LIKE gold and silver just as my fellow collectors here. Therefore, knowing where prices are going is so important to my collecting of modern bullion and nonbullion coins.

I like my somalian elephant coins a ton. I love the various african series bullion coins that are out there. I do like the Pandas. I like some/handful of RCM coins. I could go on.

However, what I do NOT like is paying for a coin and watching it slide with the prices of silver and gold. Right now there are very few modern gold and silver coins that are not being impacted by PM prices.

As an example- I enjoy those african ounces in antique finish from that German mint. They have some 3 and 9 oz pieces I would love to buy. I would LOVE to get some somalian elephant gold, I would LOVE to get a kilo elephant coin.

However, personally, and this is just me, I just cant justify buying that much silver and gold at these prices when things are going lower. I would rather sit tight and be patient because I do not want to over pay. The elephant Kilo coin is a perfect example. MCM and their prices are for the kilo not near or trailing PM's prices. So therefore I am going to sit and wait. All dealers are doing this however, I just use MCM as an example because of their wide coverage in terms of being a big dealer.

Other coins tho, like these 9 ounce silver antique finish African ounce coins, such as the elephant or rhino, they have steadily dropped as PM prices have dropped. I am sorry but 3 or 9 ounces are too much for me to buy at these prices, when I know by waiting they will be lower. I can see buy 1 oz here and there but thats it. At least an 1 oz of say Somalian elephants will help me along as I collect lol


I mean I have data showing how prices on sheets of pandas as an example has been dropping by the hundreds as silver has dropped here in its downtrend. I would want to buy a kilo panda but I just cant see buying that much silver and then knowing its going to cost me less.

Anyways, everyone has to do what they want too. I can at least satisfy my itch for coin collecting with an oz here and there lol

I do not know how low we go but it is very clear to me that silver is not going down, nor gold.