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Replies: 5,649 / Views: 461,161 |
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
3789 Posts |
BEfore we look at gold and silver, did want to note the miners are breaking out today with a gap up. pretty good move.
gold, with a big break out higher today. This break out looks good so far, we have 3 month highs here. You can see how this started with a shorter time frame, a break out (b/o) of a few days, with continued buying sets up an even bigger move. Also we should note gold today has made a continued higher highs, higher lows,, indicating forward progress.
Silver is bring up the rear, still lagging in terms of breaking out higher over a long time period but still making higher highs and higher lows. I'd say in general with gold making a break here, silver should follow, we'll see.
so good price action, maybe this time gold will hold and build on this progress. Remember, we have many price levels above us so it will be interesting to see how gold reacts.
All too often we have had counter trend moves like this, sharp rallies or bounces and then they fizzle out. Therefore, as I always say, it will take time and patience to see how well this holds, to see who is in control.
be patient and just allow time to work things out, dont get too anxious in case things fizzle out again.
Edited by yup7676 02/04/2016 11:35 am
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
3789 Posts |
I forgot to mention something else, an interesting side point-
last week, around this time, the BOJ came out with their negative interest rate talk. Before that talk happened, the japanese was in a trend, pretty much at yearly highs and then it was knocked down.
in a week since that announcement, the japanese yen has recovered all its losses and is pretty much right back where it was before it got dropped kicked. My point: the japenese is extremely strong despite the actions of the central bank.
Generally speaking, the Yen is considered a safe haven in turbulent times and by it getting into yearly highs puts it in an uptrend.... and furthermore, does this signal a time period where the market forces no longer feel the central banks can help economies? are markets saying this time central bank action doesn't represent proper pricing in financial markets?.... I have no clue, no opinion, dont really care, just an observation based on price action.
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
3789 Posts |
Gold continues to look good. It broke out again today, made a higher high, higher low. Still moving up tho now its pretty much flat.
its been a nice tradeable b/o. A couple of thoughts going forward.At some point, expect some sort of pull back. When it does happen, pay attention to how deep it is, how much selling happens.
If you want higher prices, you want to see gold holding these gains the more preferable scenario one wants to see is a mild pull back with a range built, in other words some side ways action before moving out higher.
It would be better also for this buying to continue on after moving higher and again just giving time to digest it.
Another scenario would be for gold to break down again but re-test where it broke out from and bounce from there. This would be the least wanted scenario but it could happen this way as well.
For now be patient. I will repeat again that gold and silver remain in downtrends, they have to prove they can break out out of this downtrend especially since we have seen this sort of move over and over and over to finally see it fizzle out and gold ends up hitting yearly lows.
So far tho, gold has allowed traders a b/o to play and perhaps it can build on this so lets keep an eye and see how it goes.
silver also made a higher high today and higher low indicating in a shorter time frame that it is moving up as well. Still lagging behind gold but let us see if/when it catches up.
Finally, miners look very good, and are breaking out again higher. Its been a while since they have broken out.
I hope to have some charts out this weekend.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3843 Posts |
Compared to other commodities, gold and silver are top performers and are having an excellent start in 2016 with some really nice gains!
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Valued Member
Canada
343 Posts |
Odd, I thought there was going to be a smack down today and it never happened. Nice to see gold and silver closing out the week on a high note. If this can be sustained until the end of the month I think that would be some good news.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
5856 Posts |
I'm uncertain about next week, this can be interesting time.
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Valued Member
Canada
343 Posts |
I've read elsewhere that due to Chinese banking holiday all next week that it may be easier for the prices of PM's to be manipulated downwards - but who really knows . . .? It's nice to see that silver and gold are catching a bit of a break but I still think we are in a deflationary trend and silver - more so than gold - will be subject to downward forces.
For this year I'm trying to be more disciplined about my purchases - trying to get under spot at auctions - though that is proving to be a challenge - many others out there doing the same so finding bargains is tough.
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
3789 Posts |
just one thing I wanted to add before I forget.... in the final hour, the gold miners really took off.....
I havent seen the miners act upward in a long time like that...
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Pillar of the Community
United States
606 Posts |
So Yup, what ya thinking?
It looks like both silver and gold have smashed through some key levels.
I hope the downtrend isn't over because my favorite buying day was in the 13s. my hope was for it to stay low for,the next 5 years as the hobby is a lot cheaper than my first purchase at $19.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
7390 Posts |
I think it's still way to early to tell anything yet but I too want to know what Yup's tea leaves are sayin 
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Valued Member
United States
134 Posts |
I would think it needs to break and sustain over the October 2015 highs before anyone should get their hopes up too much.
Regardless, I'm still a buyer in small amounts ($30-40 per month). It's a fun part of my coin collecting hobby.
Edited by mendelman 02/08/2016 10:04 am
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Valued Member
Canada
343 Posts |
Wow - just looked at the charts - haven't seen this type of movement in a long while . . . Any smack down is going to have to be massive in order to get prices down to where they were a couple of weeks ago. It's going to be tougher to pick up bargains anywhere.
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
3789 Posts |
pretty busy AM here but I Will say this.
Silver looks good here, finally breaking out in a big way, a gap up... Gold, good follow through, big gap up.
the metals are pouring on the steam, and take a look at the miners, the price action in the final hour Friday was impressive in terms of price and I cant recall whens the last time the miners acted like the market wanted them.
so far so good. Lets see how this gap holds going forward. What you want to see is the gap from today holding and not being tested later in the week.
so again, technically speaking in terms of price, excellent price action and building on it.
and no Cascade, absoultely no tea leaves or crystal ball here lol just my trusted friend, price action has given us clues, day by day.
going forward it will be interesting to see if gold and silver and hold these gains, build on them and continue to move out higher. at what levels will there sellers come in? how heavy will the selling be?
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
3789 Posts |
oh by the way, look at the yen, yearly highs, this is in an uptrend.
FOr whatever reason, the BOJ has lost its power. So you have bonds and gold up, the yen...
perhaps the market is rotating now into miners and metals as the US stock market enters a downtrend.
time will tell what happens but we are going to have lots of clues and really the ultimate indicator will guide us, and that is the price action.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
7390 Posts |
Well I must have the Crystal ball then because I knew pretty much exactly what you were going to say 
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Replies: 5,649 / Views: 461,161 |