What Happens To Gold And Silver Next? Look Out Below?

We had talked at the beginning of the week and over the weekend how this would be a big and important week for gold and silver,, and it was.

Notice how, for the most part, all we got was a set of lower highs and lower lows for days with gold, with a few bounces. Silver had a similar pattern, tho with a few more bounces, and while its off its yearly highs as well, the chart price structure doesn't look as weak as golds. Whether that holds going forward or means anything, we'll have to wait and see.

Gold, watch that 1206 that we talked about yesterday next week. See if we break below it, if we do, see how price reacts. I got a hunch, based on price, we see some sort of bounce around here.

Silver, hey I was thinking the drip in price would have us touch this week the upper end of that previous range but didnt happen. Perhaps it holds here but again, more clues should come in on silver next week.

I know most everyone has got to be disappointed. Thats OK. This is NOT going to be an easy uptrend. A lot of overhead resistance from 4+ years of a downtrend is above gold and silver. its going to take TIME to eat through it, in a sense.

As far as the miners, I think the gold miners are going to take some time to set up again. Silver miners, as silver, dont look that bad. Looks to me like for now they are sitting on the lower end of their ranges whereas the gold miners just need to reset again and form new bases as mentioned before. Again, TIME is key here.

.. and guess what. We are now going into some of the most boring, do nothing, meaningless time periods of the year. Its entirely possible that during this time period the PMs, the miners for the most part go dormant and start to form their bases over months.

This is the time of year where things kind of go on their own way and some assets will have a stealth grind up, others will grind down and others will just chop around and do nothing, and again, I think thats where gold and silver will play their part, doing nothing, just chopping around.

It is in that time period, the chop, sideways "do nothing" time period, where actually bases and ranges are formed. Seems funny but thats how it works.

That said, let me repeat again, as I do over and over and OVER, that we remain in an uptrend. Gold and silver and the miners hit yearly highs. Breaking a 4+ year downtrend was HUGE, it was EPIC and when any asset hits a yearly high, also known as 52 highs. if you are a buyer, that is where you want your money at. That is an excellent spot to start buying.

I realize for the vast majority of folks, that concept is probably one that is hard to grasp, hard to understand how after hitting a yearly high and hearing the trend just started, that then you see a bunch of selling. If you have doubts tho, please refer to a handful of charts I posted up from the last weekend. This sort of pattern is common and it happens in many assets in uptrends.

I will be posting at a slower rate here going forward as we enter this slower time period, I will be leaving a few positions on but not entering anything new and wont be looking closely at the PMs.

If I do see something urgent, if we see something that is threatening this uptrend or if we get some sort of stealth rally here and things change (because remember, markets are dynamic and ever changing) I will do my best to get on the stick and help out here.

There is so much I would like to say, now that I am talking to people who can understand me when I speak of PM's and related equities. I will try to reform my posting habits to be more readable. I am used to posting on yahoo more for my own record of my thought process than trying to reach anyone with a flexible opinion.

I feel that I have made some very relevant posts there and it would be most helpful if there was a way to reference some of them. For example What I wrote on April 12th about The "weekly silver chart" is extremely important to next months silver price. I also find it hard to really relay my thoughts without establishing some credibility first. We don't really have time to do that properly for you. If someone could help me with this that would be great.

Everyone says no one knows what is going to happen to the price of gold or silver. Sometimes I do. When we were traveling the country in 03 I stopped at probably 50 coin shops and a dozen shows and many of them laughed at me when I said silver was going to $50 again I didn't think it I knew it somehow. I have learned assign a percentage when I say "a chance" For example, there is a 95% chance that the December lows will not be broken. There is a 70% chance we will see new highs within 4 years. The point being no one can be right 100% of the time. (Except my wife) If you can be right 70%+ of the time and know what to do when you are wrong then making money should be easy. (so is staying married)

If we can take care of my "back-story" I can try to get the boss to screen shot a few charts since I haven't been able to share charting in a long time. If it relates to PM's, I have an opinion on it. I will give it for the asking.

Just my not so humble opinion.
Ed

I guess the best way to explain my investing history is a time line in one post so those not interested do not have to navigate around a bunch of OT posts. So here it goes forgive me if it a little long.

When I was born I was given 11 shares of GE which I held and reinvested dividends.
I took Economics as electives at Penn State because it was fun and sooo easy and in a way beneath me as a engineering major. (NOT true)
1992 stared working at a factory making powder coatings for a day trader. watched and learned.

1999 Started taking an interest in coins, realized there was a 20 year bear market in PM's and started buying silver. Mostly filling roll sets of Franklins, Washingtons, and Roosevelts. By 2008 was like 20 1/2 rolls of quarters from all 3 roll sets.

2001 Decided to sell GE, diversify. I woke the morning of my appointment with Edward Jones and told my wife I had a dream GE went to 20$ a share. $45 at the time. She said "good thing you have an appointment to sell today" That was the morning of September 11. When the market re-opened I sold some GE at $33 and bought GOLD $4.33 I think which was GFI before the switch to MYSE. My first PM stock. When I called him to buy more he said "OK, but don't buy any more" I fired him and opened a Speedtrader account. The founder REALLY liked my boss (20 trades a day at 10$ea. So I had a small peak into the big-leagues so to speak. This helped me learn a lot of the rules and regs.

2002 Stared posting on Yahoo, went 100% PM's (except trading) learned about most of the miners.

2003-2008 Got my boss buying $1000 bags, dummy traded out of all the good stocks I showed him. Was the manager and would get the plant running, go in the ofice at 9:30 ask haw the market was and would chart on advanced GET (the only thing I miss about the place) Probably the #1 software of the time. Until 10 ish then take lunch in the office and at 3:45 sit and watch the close and chart till we felt like leaving. During this time I turned 20 into 125 then all the way down to 1. I never took any out but actually added to buy EXK at like 2.

2008-2010 I turned the plastic factory into a bio-diesel factory with all in-house fabricated equipment mostly designed by me, capable of producing 6000 gal./day. Fully permitted, made the newspaper, had good relations with a huge local competitor, getting PA and US Gov rebates. (1.75/ Gal tot.) we had oil contracts with several major potato chip makers. Being on salary I was able to spend 20 hrs a week in front of the market.

2010 I taught the bosses grandson the "golden boy" how to run the shop and then was fired because of dis-agreements over lack of production due to my safety concerns. 8 months later (plenty of time to fix any of MY errors) they blew the place up. Big-time. There is news video if you search "Erie biodiesel fire"

That brings me to a point where I can easily copy and paste my most relevant yahoo posts. The gap in posts between 2011 and 2016 is because I was not in stocks, couldn't really afford to add much to savings and was starting our own companies. This should give everyone a chance to see my performance in an easily verifiable format. I have only made 2 pages of posts on yahoo since 2011. There is a basher on the EXK board. I have experience with the psychology behind his MO and recognize it. I know it sounds crazy to let some wanna-be lunatic (much smarter than he sounds) influence investing but it is what it is. He challenged readers to check my record so I did. I am surprised at how well I did calling silver and EXK.

I looked at my post history just in case my wife was right in thinking "maybe he is stalking because he listened to you and lost." Normally I don't care at all what someone on the internet says. In this case, the fact that he is trying so hard to discredit my new sentiment gives me confidence enough to actually start recommending this to the people I know will listen. I have seen this behavior before although much more refined. If anyone remembers sht_house_rat from the SSRI board you will know what I mean. The day that sht_house_rat finally agreed with me and "went long," I got the feeling that I should sell my SSRI (2008), but I did not act upon it. I will never forget it, and am not going to make the same mistake again.

So here is a brief history of my EXK posts. These are all cut and pasted from yahoo EXK message board.

edthelorax Jun 3, 2010 10:14 AM
I even sold all of my silver stocks for the first time since 2002.

Next mention of silver or silver stock:

Selling
by edthelorax Jan 21, 2016 4:15 PM

Everything I can so I can buy Endeavour. I have not held any stocks at all since 2011 and just opened an account and bought a few at $1.04 Hopefully I can get more cash in by Mon morn. I will continue to buy EXK anywhere near a dollar with every penny I can muster.


edthelorax Feb 24, 2016 4:25 PM
I whimped out and bought at the close $1.68. I have said the stock market would rebound and here it is. . I think it will only last a short while. I also said that I felt the next breakout in PM's would come on a big DJIA up day and that could happen real soon. Everyone is used to the inverse relationship between the SM and PM"S I think PM's will do what no one expects and go up with the SM. So even though the charts are saying I should wait for a better price my experience says, coming off a real bottom, the pullbacks are sideways and the moves up are fast, that way it always looks topped off and a better price will come but it doesn't or like you missed the move . Tomorrow probably would have been better I chose to do what I am still telling my friends to do and buy and don't worry about the pennies.

edthelorax Mar 17, 2016 2:22 PM
Silver is breaking out after being a dime above 15, gold is down at the moment, SPX broke the 200DMA getting really close to 2060 and gold/silver is down to 79.

edthelorax Mar 28, 2016 10:55 PM
Please do not construe anything I say as any form of advice.

edthelorax Apr 5, 2016 11:59 AM
I am still expecting a big up move in silver before June

Silver weekly chart
by edthelorax Apr 12, 2016 8:40 AM

The silver 5+ year weekly chart is beautiful to me. There is a certain symmetry when combined with the aspects of charting that paints a picture that is very soothing to me. Stockcharts only gives me 5 years. I put the 80. 150, and 500 week moving averages on, you can see why I chose them by the way the fit in 2012 and 2013/14. I love the way it handled the 80WMA over the past month. There aren't a lot of trendlines to be drawn for the next $5 or so. There is one that goes along the early 2015 bottoms that meets the 150wma at 18ish and you saw EXK work through similar points in a couple weeks, Blue sky till 4 did not mean not down at all nor does it imply a top at 4. The stocks have definitively said silver is gong higher the chart already says that it broke out but some people need the break above 16 to be able read it in the chart.. I think silver will have a move that looks like those of EXK as it broke out.
Very exciting watching it all

What now
by edthelorax Apr 21, 2016 10:28 AM

With ave vol hit before 10 this AM, 10% of the float traded in the past 2 days EXK is seeing way more action than the other silver miners is the buyout closer than expected? Now that the $4 target has been reached, how much resistance is there here and how long will it take to work through it? If it weren't for the fact that silver barely broke out on the weekly and isn't near the $20 target I would lighten up a little. There is a nasty gap at $3 which should be filled but won't if there is a buyout or if silver blows through $20. MGN left a gap in 03, I think and it didn't get filled until like 2012. It looks like there isn't much resistance after $4 until 8ish. I defiantly remember the miners had a way oif "taking turns" going up quickly. It seems that there would be laggers like SSRI now which would all the sudden shoot up while others consolidated.

Target
by edthelorax May 3, 2016 10:53 AM

I'm looking at $3.52 for the bottom of this pullback. This would go with $16.80 silver. It would be very helpful to the trend (charts) to consolidate down to these levels. I don't think I will have any buying power until after it hits this. I'm hoping it goes down for two or three weeks and does fill that gap. I am hoping we miss by a penny on friday and went below 3 next week so I can do a closing, get some cash

My Opinion 5/12/16
by edthelorax May 12, 2016 9:59 PM

I like EXK very much I hope to buy more soon. My near term outlook for the PPS is not favorable to short term holders. It is very favorable to me as a long term investor as I should have "dry powder" very soon. I feel that the shorts will have a moment but better know what their plan is beforehand. I have a plan, will follow it and am not going to get scared into changing the plan. All of the charts look like shtt Ten Year,SPX,INDU, Gold, Silver EXK, Doctor COPPER! GE C Apple Walmart charts are about to beakdown or have already. The only decent thing I see is WTIC black gold XOM CVX. Investing in PM's especially silver requires diligence and a very strong stomach. I have selected several buy points leaving room in case of capitulation lows. And would need $4.20 or better on the upside to change to plan B.


My new outlook EXK, Silver 5-28-16
by edthelorax 2 hours 10 minutes ago

After much thought since reading a post about my opinion on Friday I have a new out look. I was wandering what I could be doing wrong if the said poster was agreeing with me.

I read this just as EXK was making a double bottom at 3.03. Because I am trading (DSLV) I must be able to adjust to every situation. The conclusion I came to is, that my forecast of lower silver prices still has a chance of coming to pass. Although the chances have diminished to the point that I feel I am "walking over dollars to pick up dimes"
I think the out-look for gold is similar to April when gold was sideways and silver shot up dropping the ratio.

There has been strong over-seas buying of silver for the past week every night only to get slammed in London or NY.
My silver target is only a couple % away, the potential gain by waiting to buy is nothing compared to the potential loss of not being in the market. Ask anyone that was waiting for a better MGN pric
e.
Looking back I feel we are in a situation more like 2008-09 than 02-03 the gains off the bottom was like %1000 (thousand) without any mini-crashes. That would put EXK at 10. Another 10% lower now will not matter then.
Silver is extremely under-valued under $30 investment demand is where the end of the line is coming from for the cartel.
Very rarely do I try to convince anyone of my investment ideas. If I would have followed my own advice when I gave it to a friend I would have had done way better than I did at the time. Put ALL your money into NTO comes to mind. Or WTZ or SSRI in 03 or EXK in 08.
EXK is selling at a 30% discount from last month. Buy the dips comes to mind.

Therefore, Tuesday morning I am SELLING DSLV. and DOUBLING my EXK in shares, not cash terms. This will leave me dry powder, just in case.

If you just finished reading all of that congratulations!

" I know you think you understand what you thought I said but I'm not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant" Alan G.

Hi Ed. Welcome to the board. Nice having more input here. Based on actions by gold and what yup has said, am thinking I may take a loss on my gold miners and either go with more silver miners or maybe CCXI which looks like it may be heading upwards.

Thanks Ed. Don't understand all you said, but that's alright. I am unhappy with myself for not having closed out my holdings in the miners the day I got up to go to work and everything was way up. I thought to myself that something wasn't right, as miners were way up and gold and silver was going down. But was in a hurry and figured I'd deal with it the next day which was the day the miners started falling. Could have had a very nice profit and gotten back into silver miners with a lot more shares with the profits, but missed the opportunity so I'm still holding. The SILJ I plan on holding, but the barrack gold stock I've read had about topped out. And the funds are sitting there going down, and yup has said that gold needs to reset so I might as well put that $ into a stock that is moving upwards, and the CCXI looked like the best option to me. But with it I will use a trailing stop loss on it, which I had not used on the miners since it was so volatile which I now regret not having used. The SILJ I plan on buying more of later once price starts moving back up. Per yups recommendation, read Livermores book, and learned a lot, but one must know how to use the knowledge which I did not do that day :-(

It's an interesting time with bullion of all sorts, commodities in general. This 2016 year seems to be a transition year from a long downtrend to the mild uptrend since the low mid Dec.2015, at least for gold. I made some mistakes(selling out in early March...should have held core positions), jumped back in, and, in a nutshell, really do not see the uptrend moves I WANT to see until 2017, with 2018 perhaps the breakout year, so, just holding and watching, with minimal tweaking.
Gold is so touchy to outside events, anything could happen on a daily-weekly period, but, I cannot predict the future, so, I watch with "baited breath"(WHO, made THAT one up?)

@zach

Gathering profits from the markets is a process and a system, part of which is based on what you are looking for and what fits your emotional make up best.

Sometimes booking profits comes down timeframe, market conditions, patterns.

For the most part tho it never changes, you should always looking first at position size, what are you willing to risk and stop out at and then once you have profits, how much time do you let it run, what kind of trailing stop do you use, etc.

The PM miners are going to work out, its just going to be very sloppy, choppy, full of violent moves. I think you might find yourself getting turned around tho if you keep cutting and jumping back in, then frustrated as the market moves away from and back to where you were at.

I would suggest you cut your sizing down more, slow down and stop chasing and realize that for the coming months, the market is going to pretty much down nothing so its going to mask certain moves. As an example- ABX dont buy it until it has made another fresh 52 low, that way you stay out of the swings.