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What Happens To Gold And Silver Next? Look Out Below?

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Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts
 Posted 06/08/2016  10:22 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add yup7676 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Take note-

PMs remain range bound still but miners breaking out, some making fresh 52 highs.

so much for those worrying about prices going lower LOL. If it starts an uptrend, it keeps going, it doesn't stop just because it pulls back.
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Cascade's Avatar
United States
7390 Posts
 Posted 06/08/2016  10:33 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Cascade to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I didn't doubt you for a second yup
Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts
 Posted 06/08/2016  10:40 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add yup7676 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
just one additional note, I have mentioned this in the past but it seems a predominant theme or TREND (get it, trends are where the money is at?) is that going forward commodities are breaking, in tandem, their steep downtrends.

For weeks now, and months really, the softs, grains, PMs, all have been either basing and breaking downtrends or making yearly highs. Get a clue, institutional money is going towards commodities of all sorts.
Valued Member
United States
154 Posts
 Posted 06/08/2016  10:59 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add zack6736 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
@yup
"For weeks now, and months really, the softs, grains, PMs, all have been either basing and breaking downtrends or making yearly highs. Get a clue, institutional money is going towards commodities of all sorts."
Good news for us, but overall, not good news for the state of the economy. ie, what are the "Basics"? Food! Shelter (hopefully we all have. LOL) A commodity to trade; PMs! mmmmm Yup, is this a typical part of the business cycle?
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edthelorax's Avatar
United States
287 Posts
 Posted 06/08/2016  11:03 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add edthelorax to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
yup,
You said "institutional money is going towards commodities of all sorts."
I agree, therefore I will be looking at Dr. Copper for stocks that haven't turned yet(since copper really hasn't turned).
Do you know of any junior copper miners/ developers that are not too heavy into gold (I know that may be hard but I want a "pure" copper play if one exists.
TIA I'll let you know what I find.
Ed
New Member
United States
4 Posts
 Posted 06/08/2016  3:19 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add cltyank to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Does anyone trend the correlation between currency and PM/commodities? My Company, based here in the U.S., is heavily exposed (exports) to currency exchange. Is this just a coincidence that as the dollar weakens, PM's strengthen? Learned this in Finance 101 35 years ago, does this principal still apply?

BTW, this Forum rocks! I read all and thank you so much for the feedback.

Tx,
Jeff
Edited by cltyank
06/08/2016 3:21 pm
Pillar of the Community
MontanaCMR's Avatar
United States
606 Posts
 Posted 06/08/2016  4:05 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add MontanaCMR to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
It's been a fun ride over the past few months. My only disappointment is the movement seems to be linked to a weakening economy. With poor employment numbers, interest rate hikes are in question, which pushes the dollar lower, and we enjoy the ride. Ideally, demand for silver in products outpaces supply in a strong economy.

I've also been wondering about what is described as appropriate entry points. I'm still learning and gathering information about this. It was only a few weeks ago that like $17.80 was considered a buying point. For me, if I have any sort of strategy forming, I like to see a longer term uptrend and then buy the drops. I still don't see the risk of this when compared to buying at the peaks if, overall, the metal is in a longer term uptrend. It's been said these things don't roll over quickly. If this is the case, why not buy the dips?

Finally, I'm still learning about exit strategies, profit taking on big up days (like today), and adding to a position. For me, I don't have a set amount, though I'm happy with my position. However, part of me would like to add again sometime from funds I have in the stock market. IMO, I'm probably more confident (over the next 3 years) in silver, something considered very volatile, than the stock market.

Wednesday night is one of my favorites because the IgoldAdvisor report comes out on youtube. The reason I mention it is because several of you who post in the thread could be that Chris guy (I have no idea who he is). It seems his theories, philosophies, and strategies are very consistent with several of you in this thread.

Thanks again for everyone that contributes to this thread. Even those who only like PM should benefit by having an idea of where the trend in PM stands, though I'm still convinced it's anyone's guess.
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ilikeikes's Avatar
United States
1205 Posts
 Posted 06/08/2016  4:28 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add ilikeikes to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
NIce bounce in the `trend lines trenches' THe range is what it is, until. It isn't anymore! the 1 area 1 would avoid profit chasing are some base metals copper, zinc, and aluminum
Valued Member
United States
154 Posts
 Posted 06/08/2016  8:04 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add zack6736 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
@ Montana
I need to learn more about exit strategies as well. I have the SILJ ETF, and not sure how far to ride it up. One article I had read stated that if silver hits over $100/oz that the SILJ would also. If this is the case, I would just stick with the ETF all the way, then flip it into metal in the end. Opinions?
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MontanaCMR's Avatar
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606 Posts
 Posted 06/08/2016  8:52 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add MontanaCMR to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Hi Zach,

I am hoping to hold for a couple of years, but would like to take profits and add to my position when possible.

Ultimately, I'd love to have just profits invested by the second year.
Valued Member
United States
154 Posts
 Posted 06/09/2016  02:08 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add zack6736 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
@Montana
Taking profits and buying back in during the dips would be nice, but I'm a bit fearful it might get away from me. I did do this once and was able to pick up an additional 100 shares with the profit, missed the last opportunity though.
I believe the uptrend will run quite awhile, so will have time to figure out an exit strategy. I know SILJ was formed at the end of 2012 and the highest it's hit was $21, but believe there is potential for it to go higher than that with this next uptrend in silver. It came close yesterday to hitting it's 52 week high of $14.23; hit $14.03 then closed at $13.88. Nice profit. Hopefully today will do as well. Work nights and watch the PM on the foreign market during the night for entertainment and to get a feel of what might happen during the day here.
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MontanaCMR's Avatar
United States
606 Posts
 Posted 06/09/2016  6:24 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add MontanaCMR to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Sold a small amount of fund today expecting a pull back sometime. If it pulls back enough, I'll add it back in. If not, I'll be happy with nice profits.

IMO, a win-win. I figure, why not. Buy at $8, sell some at $10, buy some back again at $9.5, sell some at 10.75......hopefully buy more at 10.25 but time will tell.
Pillar of the Community
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3789 Posts
 Posted 06/09/2016  7:42 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add yup7676 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Observations for this week-

if you have been following along at home this week this things are clear and obvious, expressed by price-

1- Gold: made a trip almost to the low end of the range last week, came away from it and followed through on the upside, testing the first upper end of the range and closing above it yesterday, the upper range being 1263s which goes all the way back to mid February.

With the action today, gold had follow through from yesterday and now is sitting on the lower end of the 1206s and remains below the higher end of the range which is 1306.

For all intent purposes, gold still remains range bound until it makes its fresh 52 highs, which the next price point to break is- 1306.01 These ranges are so easy and clear to see. If you cannot grasp the simple concept that price moves between ranges on retracements and that ranges are a necessary part of price action, then you are probably going to be lost for a long time.

Gold remains in an uptrend and if it keeps grinding here from range to range, a shot at yearly highs will be on tap soon. Breaking the yearly highs will bring fresh yearly highs. Simple as that.

2- As we saw last week, silver found support at what was previous resistance, the 16s. It bounced hard from the 16s, traveled past one range and now sits in the last range before the yearly highs. This current range silver sits in is the 17s on the lower end and low 18s on the upper end.

Once again, if you have failed to spot these well defined ranges in gold and silver, you really are going to struggle. If you cant grasp how ranges work in price, understand pull backs in an up trend, then also you will struggle going forward.

For this reason, you must inculcate it in your mind that yearly highs you buy and that no matter how much they pull back, they will hit in time, another yearly high. This is how it always works, since the day exchanges for trading opened over a hundred years ago.

If you cant stomach pull backs in commodities that are in an uptrend, then you should just get out and leave your money in cash.

Miners- continue to act well. As I pointed out a week ago, EVEN as gold and silver pulled back, I noted and shared here gold miners that were making 52 highs.

If I was adding to a gold mining or silver miner, I would add up here, seeing that a retracement has occurred, followed by a fresh yearly high which is a BUY signal.... and yes, I dont care if after buying the yearly high, the stock drops and drops and drops... the point is I am buying an uptrend and received confirmation of trend continuation. If you cannot grasp that simple concept I dont know what else to tell you.

Again, uptrend remains in gold and silver, it is strong and we are working with very clear levels, which is how price action works. If you thought we were going lower after this pull back or done going higher, you were gravely mistaken.. in fact you probably need to educate yourself further on how trends work.

Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts
 Posted 06/09/2016  7:58 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add yup7676 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
@zach

Zach, I really dont pay much attention to things such as business cycles, not to sound mean or arrogant, but I really dont care. Point being- I am here to spot the trends, up or down, ride them as long as I can and profit from them. I dont get paid to figure economic conditions. Furthermore, even if I did, I would probably be dead wrong.

Why are the grains going higher? I dont know, dont care. Gun to the head: supply and demand is the only rule you need to know in commodities. Clearly the demand side is ramping up and the grain markets, the softs, are looking into the future and clearly are aware of some shortage in those commodities and so prices are now rising.

Trust me tho Zach, AFTER the prices have risen, then the "why" will come,, we will know, many months later, why prices rose. But for now, if we are to make good money, our only concern is to spot the trend, get in as it starts and receive confirmation and ride it until it dies. As I have been encouraging you, your job, my job, is to hold the PMs until this trend dies. We dont focus on how high it goes, we dont focus on when it dies, we focus on riding it.

So far, all the overwhelming evidence, expressed by price, which does not lie, is that PMs are going higher and are not, for now, going lower. Focus on the uptrend. The BIG money will be made by just SITTING on your shares until this trend dies.


@Ed

I really havent looked at copper closely as its one of the commodities that has switched between trying to break its downtrend and then roll over again. Copper remains in a strong downtrend and remains a sell for me. I do not buy commodities that exhibit that price action.

I did however tho look quickly from some copper miners in a screener, I have no idea what their mix is in terms of being 100 copper focused or not but this might help-

FCX- the old standby

NSU- sure is trading like a copper miner

SCCO- looks like the only pure copper play

All those look ugly to me, certainly dont fit my parameters for buying. Hope that helps
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MontanaCMR's Avatar
United States
606 Posts
 Posted 06/09/2016  8:08 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add MontanaCMR to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Good stuff, Yup.

It gives me confidence in staying in he market and having fun buying drops and selling peaks throughout the process. About 80% just sits there.

I noticed APMEX has a bunch of elephants on sale. Lot of different stuff to choose from.
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