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Replies: 5,649 / Views: 460,708 |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
606 Posts |
Yup,
Thanks so much for the detailed response. I know many of us are grateful for the considerable amount of time you spend to articulate trend trading.
It was interesting to read your description of different trend traders, and how some only trade the first two 52 week highs while others are willing to trade more than the initial two.
Even with the benefit of hindsight, I'm not sure how I would have traded out of the example chart you showed. IMO, it didn't show a lot of weakness before tumbling.
Again thanks for the amazing response to my questions.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1205 Posts |
@YUP..Livermore suggest taking profits off the table when over 100%...I'm curious, since many of my miners are well over 100% profits..lets say I bought 100 shares of XYZ for $10, a $1,000 investment...Now worth $40/share, and $4,000..........my first thought was/is...IF I sell shares to get cash out, I'm "missing" more action down the line!....so, does Livermore suggest taking out $1,000(selling 25 shares @ $40)..? Now, I'm down to 75 shares worth $3,000.......and have 1k put away for a rainy day? Ty Calvin
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
3789 Posts |
@ilikeikes
you could, but again, being in an uptrend and with large profits allows the holder a nice cushion to work out the swings in the uptrend.
Yes, we will see a pull back at some point, might even make some say that the trend is done, but thats why you buy right, sit tight and try to hang on and get as much as you can of that trend.
Ultimately, it is up to each individual to gather profits, again its about how much can you emotionally tolerate, where do we stand in the trend, etc. Even in uptrends there are pull backs, which might make one think in the mind "hey I should have just sold there" versus the "oh man I sold too soon".
So I repeat, one has to remember where one stands in the trend, has the behavior changed? Has the trend gotten any weaker? What is the price action saying?
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Pillar of the Community
United States
606 Posts |
Speaking of some thinking the trend is nearing an end, does anything think this is the case?
We have been in the uptrend, based on this thread, about 5 months.
I know some mention 30-50, I just wonder the rational for this based on supply and demand.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1205 Posts |
I LOVE days like this, when spot is down...and many of my mining stocks are UP...days like this give me vital information on PM, and behind-the-scenes trend viewing for favorable miners to keep adding to, although 99% of my buying was done long ago...small tweaks here and there, that's about it. Livermore was well known for his SILENCE. I don't brag, or boast with my small fortune in the works with both gold and silver miners..not my style either. But, I do like to share a stock for anyone interested in doing their own research. I was lucky enough to find out about this company, and just bought in Monday: First Mining Finance Corp FFMGF....OTC NOT a mining company, but, would classify as a "Hybrid Streamer". I believe it is undervalued for sure, I have NO idea where this one may go, so far, up 33% in 3 days.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
606 Posts |
So Ilike, you still think this uptrend has legs?
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Pillar of the Community
United States
606 Posts |
Paging Yup, Paging Yup!
You are needed on isle 9 for cleanup.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1205 Posts |
It's just in early stages
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4333 Posts |
27.5% on my AT&T YTD. Not a big fan of paper, but...
When I listen to LED ZEPPELIN...so do my neighbors... Roll hunting since '77 Dirt fishing since '72
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3546 Posts |
Quote: It's just in early stages  If whatever? new administration comes in and 'possibly' stimulates sustainable job growth and international trade, inflation is an inevitable historical trait over the long haul until the prime rate peaks out... If we see a scenario such as the one above, PM prices might possibly increase proportionally in relation to higher interest rates if history is any guide to use for future performance. However, we still haven't factored in aberrations such as the Iranian entry into the market once things really get going or not over there etc.
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Valued Member
United States
154 Posts |
@yup You asked some questions of us in your last post. I will give my view on what's going on. "Has the behavior changed?" For now I'd say yes. The fast run up after Brexit, the price is now consolidating, and has found support at the $20 level but is holding right in that range for now. "Has the trend gotten weaker?" I'd say no, by price action it's consolidating AND miners are holding steady or even rising even though silver has dropped from it's high on 7-4-16 of $21.20 to a low of $20.11 today. "What is the price action saying?" It's taking a breather and consolidating getting ready for the next push up; also, volume is stagnant as the market was saturated with 10 days of buying and price increase, 5 of which were heavy buying. The last 4 days and today so far have seen selling as people take profits and possibly fear easing off post brexit as people move funds from PM back into the market. "You asked where one stands in the trend?" For me, outside looking in since my trailing stop loss kicked in and sold the SILJ I had, thus am looking for a nice dip in silver, hoping miners would follow suite which does not seem to be happening. This time, instead of an ETF, was looking at PAAS, and also some Integra Gold since they are debt free and have excellent ground to mine; and it's cheap right now. Can pick up 1000 shares for under $1000. Just waiting on the PAAS to come down with the price action of silver, but am starting to think by price action that may not happen. This is my observations and conclusions. Also, going to pick up more physical and any $$ I can save there, I can put into the market in more miners. Have learned to be patient, but need to stay vigil as well. As you pointed out, jumping around looses one money. I've learned that lesson.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1431 Posts |
Well, it seems Turkey is about to shake up the markets a bit.
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Valued Member
United States
154 Posts |
Looks like the coup has failed. Am glad it happened on our Saturday so the markets wouldn't have time to react violently, although at the end of the market, there were some sharp price changes that no doubt was due to the coup attempt.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1205 Posts |
Convention week will mass hysteria and killing in the streets top off a civil war? My hope is for major unrest no killing but enough upheavals to of course create a risk-on atmosphere. The Country seems to be cyclical in a 1968 type of violent stage filled with the same issues of race, equality, and a hatred of Washington and it's worsening out of control spending and inability to function for the common person. The gun issues are creating a video game like bloodbath sorry to say. I want bullion to go higher of course but was hoping demand and paper central bank failures would be the catalysts, not mass murder
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
3789 Posts |
Just a few thoughts-
1- Anyone who continues to worry and has to ask if this up trend has more to go-
a- is carrying to much risk in gold,silver and miners and therefore their senses are being clouded
b- is not keeping it simple. Ask yourself, how long was the downtrend? Was it not for many years?
c- those who continue to jump around and vacillate are shooting themselves in the foot. You get paid by sitting on your thumbs and waiting. Yes, hard to do but once you been told what to do and see that it works and are not doing it, you are just setting yourself up for more frustration down the road.
d- if you are trying to make price targets or trying to stick to price targets on where the miners are going, once again, you are only setting yourself up for pain and misery. Do not waste your time with worrying about a price target on silver or gold. Just follow the trend. Price targets are a waste of time and only emotionally hurt you by either making you sell too late or too early. If you want to do that to yourself, then by all means, go ahead and think about price targets but you have been warned.
The miners have managed to disconnect from the price of the metals as was mentioned last week. Take that as another clue of how strong the trend is. PMs down, miners up.
That said, as always, where you buy and from where is key.
Gold and silver are in uptrends but now are in a range. The direction the range breaks will be where the next move of importance comes from.
If you are sitting on silver and gold or miners from when we talked about the first break of trend lines or when they started making their first yearly highs, you are sitting on some nice profits and pat yourself on the back. Now your job is to let those profits ride as high as possible. IF you have missed this move from February, there will be another spot to get in but you must remain patient.
become a student of price action. everything else is noise.
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Replies: 5,649 / Views: 460,708 |