What Happens To Gold And Silver Next? Look Out Below?

@ yup,

I hate to admit, but over the past 5 months I'm not up that much by moving a little in and out... Maybe 8% if you include costs. It's been fun as I'm taking this month off, but not necessarily profitable.

@montanaCMR

I understand what you are saying. You want to avoid losses and you dont like the feeling of seeing what gains you might have, say after a run up for 20%, erased by say a 1/3 or half.

I can tell you from experience that you will never grow rich nor experience the full profits from riding a trend if you jump in and out. The big profits are made by sitting tight, buying right, having an exit plan in case things dont play out and sitting tight.

As we have discussed here, there is nothing wrong in playing just the break outs and then walking away. Or buying dips and selling rips as they say in an uptrend.

HOwever, you wont ever be able to capture the entire juice of a trend. It takes guts and even possible loss, (you cannot escape losses when you trade, impossible) to see a trend run its course or to allow it to do its thing.

I will give you a brief example. I bought soybeans when they hit their yearly highs, JUST as they started. You buy 52 highs. I had the proper execution, proper plan. I have done this and do it all the time. I bought what, it started in late may and I recently got stopped out for a loss. It happens. You cannot escape losses.

Other times, a trade that is trending, I get in and I buy the 52 high, and it goes below my buy point, which was a 52 high. However, understanding the pattern allowed me to modify my stop before I entered and sure enough, despite it going lower from my initial buy, in essence it re-tested the break out, which is totally normal, at first it started with a loss but it did go into its pattern making yearly highs.

so the point is- you must prepare yourself to see gains eroded. IT does not mean the trend is done. It is the normal flow of price in whatever asset is being traded.

We cannot say to ourselves, "i dont want to loses any gains so I am leaving here". Often that mindset leads to lost profits or being all mixed up.

REmember too that trading is hard, even with a trend. If it was that easy, everyone would be a trader and super rich.

I forgot, one additional question.

Do you think it's getting late for any entry in this particular trend? I've still got my core position from early March, but part of me would like to add more and then let it sit. However, I realize this should have been done months ago.

But lest say you have some additional funds. Would you wait for the next uptrend in another sector, or find another entry point in miners?

@yup
I stand corrected on my noting of 52 week high. I noticed my PAAS miner only up .01/share today, was shocked by that but as you've said, they need a rest. But when you use the term reversal, you mean a dip before continuing the uptrend right?
Does anyone else here sell short besides yup? I still need to study up some on that, but figure I've got time as this uptrend is just getting started.

@montanacmr

I live by a simple saying that goes back to Jesse Livermore. In reference to stocks, and really this applies to any asset, he said "no stock is too high to buy and no stock is too low to sell".

Again, with trend following you are following the trend, you are following price. Do I think its too late to enter gold and silver? No. There is still time to enter.

HOWEVER, where you enter as the trend ages and matures becomes important. You will only know where to enter this trend by following price.

I have repeated myself many times and I find myself once again repeating myself- You must know where you stand in the trend. We have discussed for YEARS now in this thread about ranges. About how they break. About LONG BASES. I have told you all you need to know about this trend and how to approach the trend.

If you have not grasped these very simple concepts that I have repeated over and over and over and over, then you must, if you can, become a student of price.

I wont repeat all the specifics because you can go back and read them in this thread. Go back as far as the beginning of the year.

To be brief tho- so long as yearly highs are being made, we remain in an uptrend. So the trend is valid. However, seeing that we are coming into over half the year, you want now to enter gold and silver after longer bases, preferrably, have been established.

This becomes tricky because the trend might keep grinding higher without giving longer bases. So the only way you can really deal with this issue, if you want to get in, is by again, legging in but going even smaller.

At some point this trend, before it dies, will start to change its tone. For the most part we have had steady grinding, with pull backs that get bought up. One day in the future, who knows when, this WILL change.

So your sizing will be important to both help you emotionally in your head/mind and also to limit risk.

I have one suggestion. If you are buying miners, you could wait for one to report or see how it has acted after its report. There is often what is termed an "earnings drift" where a stock reports a ER and it receives a favorable reaction by the market and proceeds to slowly rise for months into the NEXT quarterly ER. If you observe this say after a week, you could safely buy a line and just sit back and watch.

the other option would be just to sit out and wait until you see some sort of sizeable correction or flat period in the miners and then start buying the next fresh 52 high. The hard part to that is that this could keep grinding without it happening for a while.

This is why I told everyone here that one , and I repeat myself but clearly the point has been lost..

1- determine how much you are going to put in

2- buy the first 52 high with a line

3- add on the way up after some sort of range or base has been formed and broken upwards

4- sit tight and wait, let the trend do its work

Now, as I said before, no asset is too high to buy. If you have missed a move after many months, then you will need to be patient and really observe closely prices. If the trend continues and rises, thats good, you can still enter but you want to buy properly and again, manage your size in the event that the trend changes its behavior, even in the short term.

Patience, good observation skills and watching price become some of the most important assets as the trend matures. I am not saying you cant buy something rising even years later but again, it is important to enter properly, even more so after the move has started.

My plan is to continue to sit in the miners, gold, silver and add more down the road, but I am looking for better bases to buy at. While I am doing that I have been sitting for a while now in sugar, cotton, I did soybeans as I mentioned earlier but was stopped out and before the summer came in I traded and sat in countless other sectors in the stock market in up trends. Gold and Silver are not the only assets in uptrends.

So to answer your question, you could wait for a better base to form in gold and silver and also be looking at other assets that are in uptrends.

Just because an asset has risen and risen doesn't mean you stop buying it. Conversely, just because it has risen for months, years does not mean you blindly buy either. You need a proper entry. That is why you must become a student of price.

Thanks so much, Yup.

You are pretty incredible to take so much time to help others.

I can tell my big weakness is wanting to buy the pullbacks rather than the breakouts. Are on any other forums like sugar or corn?

.... and as mentioned yesterday, the reversals we saw yesterday were telling us a pull back was coming. how deep? who knows, we arent in the predicting biz