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Replies: 5,643 / Views: 460,316 |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
606 Posts |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
711 Posts |
Just adding some year to date charts for the new page.  
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Valued Member
United States
154 Posts |
Read an interesting article about why gold is seasonal. Had to do with farmers buying gold after their harvest to 'save' their earnings, India buying gold for the brides for adorning their wedding and how this time of year is considered to bring them good luck, and also how gold is bought for celebrations in Asian countries for the new year. I'd like to have the extra $$ to buy some gold bullion, but will have to be satisfied with gold miners and silver bullion. Anyway, I believe that silver will outperform gold in the long run, simply based on the fact that silver has been the 'go to' metal for hard currencies throughout history and also the fact that it's is an industrial metal used in electronics in an ever increasing digitalized world. I've been curious, how many that follow this thread have actual bullion they can hold? I have stacked a nice collection of Canadian Maples, and bullion rounds. Not much into coin collecting. But I do like the Maples. The silver dollars have too much of a premium price, as I look at it, the $ is better spent on bullion.
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Valued Member
United States
154 Posts |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1205 Posts |
@Zack..I know Mr. YUP is not a big fan of "seasonality", just into the price movement and trend, with "outside" forces neutralized into pure numbers. At the end of the day, no matter what one tries to do to "The Market", "IT" always does what it wants to do, in time. Many believe the gig is up, and, there will be a heavy price to pay for mis-guided tweaks from both Government and Company CEO's, in last-ditch attempts to appease shareholders and "look good" on paper. "On Paper" is the problem...Reality is a whole different animal. THE only solution to get on track is to, and, this WILL happen no matter how hard anybody, or, any tweak tries to prevent it, is a correction to balance the internal stability that has been lost. Like a gyroscope out of control, eventually, the vertigo is solved, but, as we have seen in the past, only by synthesis of heavy pain for those involved in risky situations heck bent on profit-taking and manipulation, with the balance sheets eventually going back to where they should be. This is a Country off-track...we lost our ability to have and keep the engine filled with coal, that runs the train. Loss of manufacturing to other countries, to make more profits, has ended up destroying our base of control, and, with the lost taxes, and revenues, combined with out-of-control Government spending with NO limits, leaves the train sputtering at the station, awaiting water and fuel. What would happen if you saw a list of the TRILLIONS of dollars GIVEN away, by our Government,(YOUR $$$$), to 175+ countries, that SHOULD be stopped, and, kept in our own vaults? Why do we waste so much money between give-aways, and wars, then, end up with a broken poverty-ridden brick road to collapse, at the expense of the poor and the suffering? You can't trust Trump, because, he wants to isolate, and pull back, but, in the meantime, his ties and shirts are still being made overseas? HOW can he even look into a tv camera knowing this lie of principles, I'll never know, nor understand. "I'm mad as hell, and, I'm not going to take it anymore"........1976...... So..go to your windows!...go to the streets!!...go the your government building steps!!!Rise up, yee, and grab your forks and shovels..., and, shout.....and shout...uh...hmmmm...I forgot what I was supposed to shout about.........I gotta run......isn't there a sale at OSH on made in China Garden tools?
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Valued Member
United States
154 Posts |
@ilikeikes I agree with what you're saying, and sounds as though you've been reading, or have read J. Livermores book. Watching the price does give indications of where it's going to go. As for the train analogy, it's outta coal, but it's running on fiat dollars running away as fast as it can towards the ravine with the bridge out. But what are you gonna do? My solution is miners and bullion, food and wine. Don't want to get into politics, not the place here for it, but will say this, 'Evan McMullin' . But, no matter who wins, the train has left the station!
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1205 Posts |
Loaded UP on bullion..and mining stocks....bring it on, I say!
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
3789 Posts |
Take note, today silver broke the LOD from yesterday and dropped below the range it was in. Where it closes will be interesting today and then we need to see what happens next week.
Do we get more follow through selling or do the buyers step in as usual? Time will tell and more clues we'll get next week.
Gold still in a range but could follow silver breaking the range. AGain, we have to just wait and see, next week brings more clues and answers.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
606 Posts |
yup, I'm guessing you have an eye on Corn? I've been watching it for a while and it has some similarities, IMO, to silver. Corn was as high as $55 and is around $19. I know it's different, but silver was at about $50 and came down to around $14.
I'll keep watching.
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
3789 Posts |
@MontanaCMR
no not really, corn is in a downtrend, not interested in buying it and no interest in selling short so not on my watch list.
You cannot equate prices in one asset with another, they are all independent of each other. Corn is stuck in a very strong downtrend. Corn should be sold short until it can stop making yearly lows.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1205 Posts |
I did some zinc stock yesterday...just pure luck, the timing, after reading about all the mine closures in China & the Philippines, causing a supply crunch....I usually don't buy outside my comfort zone, but, so far so good... Now..let's be RID of all the speculators today, then, Monday, get back to business with serious non-robotic investors!
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
3789 Posts |
Many miners going out at the LOD,, usually this indicates more follow through selling on the next session. Notice how also the PMs went out at the LOD as well, again same principle, a weak close usually indicates or increases the probabilities more continued selling on the next session.
Dont be surprised if Monday you find your miners even down even much lower and into the week.
Make or break time for Silver. If there is no bounce Monday, I place the probabilities very high that we are going much lower in silver.
Gold, for next week, those 1319s have to hold or we see gold go lower as well.
The principles are always the same-
1- the more price probes an area, either up or down, eventually that gives way unless there is a quick rebound that pushes away from that area.
2- ranges, bases are the same thing. When a range or base forms, generally the direction it breaks is the next move of importance. Remember the saying, the longer the base the more we blast off into space. I like to talk about that rubber band, the more it keeps getting stretched, eventually it snaps... point is, the base, over time, the longer it runs, the stronger or more pronounced the move will be.
Remember too we are dealing with probabilities. Nothing is set in stone. That is why we take each day by day and always look for follow through or confirmation, all expressed by price. We also look the various scenarios in front of us that we can both follow along with price and be aware of what is unfolding.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
606 Posts |
I sold about 60% of my miners a little over a week ago to get in line with what Livermore said was a less stressful level. However, I think if we drop big Monday, I'll get rid of the rest and wait for another entry point. I may miss some profits, but no shame for me in getting out with a profit on my first major trade of my life. It's nice because what remains is profit at this point.
At least for now, I can't see a difference in something I bought at 10 versus 5. If stocks are no longer acting right, IMO I'm out. This is obviously a very subjective decision.
Best of luck to everyone.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
606 Posts |
@yup,
My comment on corn is to me it one to watch over the next weeks and months. Based on my experience with metals, I'm looking for assets that have been in a long downtrend and then make a 52 week high.
Knowing my personality, I'll probably start a slow catch of a falling knife. Just like my first silver spot was 19, I averaged down to $13.80. I know that's a mistake but my average was about $16. I'd have to look but my guess that turned out to be pretty close to the 52 week high price.
I still can't find where Livermore talks about 52 week highs. He talks about pivot points which could involve a number of possible analyses. Time will tell.
Edited by MontanaCMR 08/20/2016 01:14 am
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
3789 Posts |
@Montana Ok I get you, yes thats not a bad strategy for looking for yearly highs, following assets that finally break them. Tells us the trend is changing. Knife catching is not a wise strategy. You did well in buying silver where you did solely because as you bought, was the precise point in time where silver started to get out of its downtrend. Simple. There were plenty of knife catchers in silver tho, in the 30s, 20s, etc.. all those folks would have been exhausted mentally seeing silver going into the teens that it discouraged them from continuing to buying all the way down. I guarantee knife catching in financial markets will drain anyone who tries to do it. So be careful, if you start to see mounting losses, consider whether knife catching is something you want to do. Again, trying to buy assets in a downtrend is not wise. You sell short asset in yearly downtrends. Pivot points, and how he describes them, are an early template of identifying break of trend lines, in price. Trend lines are another type of price points. Its an area where price holds after being re-tested and then prices dont look back again and the trend changees, such as a downtrend. To answer your question- yearly highs or 52 highs, were the trade market of Jesse Livermore and to see this in print, you must read the first book written about him, the first which was written in 1923. I believe. It is called Reminiscences of A Stock Operator. This is the first book featuring Livermore, tho it was done in a sense, on a fictional trader, Larry Livingston, who really was Jesse Livermore and it was a series of interviews with a Wall Street Journal reporter. When Livermore wrote his book, How To Trade in Stocks in 1940, it is already assumed that people following him already had learned from him about buying yearly highs. However, in Reminiscences, Livermore states : "Go long when stocks reach a new high, which are yearly highs. There are several interviews done by a Richard D Wyckoff where Livermore discussed his methods in the Magazine of Wall Street which I believe also dates back to the late 1800s. Both of these can be bought on Amazon.com, and the Reminiscences book comes in several versions, one I believe comes with updated annotations as to how we see modern day application for Livermore's methods which might help you understand better in case you can't grasp the early style writing in this book. Finally, let me leave this final over dose of Livermore basic lessons, many I have repeated here a million times. http://www.newtraderu.com/2013/01/16/3048/
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Replies: 5,643 / Views: 460,316 |
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