What Happens To Gold And Silver Next? Look Out Below?

I think german bank issues are a NON-EVENT. I could be wrong but I base that on the fact that DB, has been in trouble and been nosing diving all the way back to 2015! This is NOT news. The market has largely ignored this and moved along.

Also, notice how gold and silver have just been faded on this event.

The boost for gold and silver will NOT come from this event.

I still think its all technical in nature. We have a lot of overhead resistance to get over and its going to be a big battle, WHICH might see silver and gold break lower.

However, the market will decide what happens so we need to sit back and watch.

I hope to put some charts up this weekend and we will discuss where we will jump off this trend and close things out if this area doesn't hold. As I see it, IF this area does not hold in the coming days, weeks, I would take it as a strong signal to walk away from gold and silver for the time being.

Just curious YUP...when you post your numbers, are you using the bid or the ask, say off Kitco? Right now, Gold sits at 1317.10 and 1318.10.....Silver at 19.13----19.23.
I know things probably may have not bottomed out, especially silver...I don't think I will sell...I can tolerate red for longer than most, knowing when the upside hits, it's worth the patient wait.
Thanks
Calvin

Got it, thanks..here's 1 small token of positivity:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/co...0-2016-09-30

Ok lets look at some charts and see where we sit.

Before I proceed, I want to remind everyone and stress that charts do NOT predict the future. We cannot predict the future. Markets are dynamic, ever changing and constantly processing whats happening in front of them and are forward looking.

We use charts as reference points, to see where we have come from and were we currently stand. We deal with probabilities and realize that we deal with uncertainty every single day we have money in markets.

Right now, with gold and silver, where we stand, we are in an important area. A resolution is coming soon and it is important we discuss the scenarios and prepare for which one happens.

GOLD-








We have seen gold chop around in a range now for roughly 3 months. It is now at a point where the range is going to be broken. Let us talk about the range and specifically the lower end. That was 1319s. Gold has repeatedly go into this range, touched it, bounced or it has breached 1319 a few times, dipped lower and then managed to get back into that range.

As of this writing, gold on Friday broke below the 1319s and closed below, in fact it closed the day at almost its low of day. This is usually a sign of more selling coming in.

When we look at the chart, we can see that 1305 is the low point. There are three possible scenarios we must observe, none of which we know will happen:

1- Gold bounces yet again from 1317

2- gold drops lower this week, past 1317 and bounces from an area below it

3- gold breaches 1305 and proceeds to drop faster and harder, slicing past 1300.

Which one is going to happen? We do not know with certainty. Probabilities are high tho that IF gold cannot hold this 1305, it is going much lower and the chart structure will change going forward. Remember, an area, the more is is probed by price, finally gives way. In this case, we see gold has repeatedly probed the lower end of the range and it is hard to imagine that it can continue to hold on and bounce.

Now let me throw you a curve ball. Sometimes, a range can be broken, a flush happens and then a strong bonce occurs which pulls the asset away from the lower end of the range and doesn't touch it again. I would place this as the least possible scenario, seeing that gold has not managed to hold on to any of its rallies thus far.


Silver






Exact same thing here for silver as we see in gold. First a range with the lower end being the 19.60s which silver has broken repeatedly. It is now sitting in the second lower range, which has a low of 18.70s. If that gets broken, lower prices are ahead and again, chart structure changes.

Again, either silver bounces hard from this area or it once again sells off into the lower end of the range it is sitting in which is the 18.70s. If the 18.70s give way, lower prices are a high probability for silver.

If these low areas do not hold on gold and silver, the chart structures will change and could be the first signs of the trend undergoing a change. If we continue this same pattern of getting into a range and breaking lower, into a NEW lower range, that is telling us price is starting to change. So we will be looking closely to see if this pattern is now starting to emerge. Again, allow the elements of price and time to show us the way.

Now does this mean, if months later, we start to see that this was a turning point in the trend and see that we are now inching CLOSER to the yearly lows, does this mean that we are going right now a downtrend?

That all depends. Crude oil went from a yearly downtrend into getting out of it in less than a year. Yes, you saw that right, oil went into a downtrend, broken down 4-5 months ago and then months later has found itself trying to turn and getting within striking distance of yearly highs!

Point is- we are seeing some wild swings in trends that quickly turn and change on a dime. Whether gold and silver are going to do this we do not know and cannot basis what one asset does based on another. Each one must be allowed to play out what it wants to do and follow the price action.


Finally, if you have profits and have been sitting in this trend since the start of 2016, you might want to start to give serious thought to closing out positions and booking profits. Perhaps sell half and hold the other half. Whatever you do, do not allow a gain to turn into a lose. Have a plan. IF this range doesn't hold here for gold and silver, I know personally I would have ZERO issues with closing out positions and waking away until there is more clarity about the trend.

slow break downs thus far for silver and gold.

it is interesting to note a brokerage house came out defending a few names this morning as well.

should be a very interesting week, cant wait to see how things play out.

Tough day, with Silver breaching 19 again, so, here we go. After last years "hardening"(I bought in early, in late summer on some miners), and, dealing with the long weeks of drops, which lasted into early Jan. of this year, I'm pretty good at disregarding the red, and, knowing within the cycles, another upswing WILL happen, just never know when. I DO know, next time I will be taking profits out, and, will pick a fixed percentage to do this. So, money will be put aside, will weather the next downturn better.
The big parabolic rise we all want...in reality, nobody knows when it will start, top, end, and, it could be years out, my game plan of a couple of years now seems off, and pushed forward, which is fine, I'm only 58.
As far as my "flippers", they get bought and sold, like any other stock...they just happen to be miners...my long term holds are just that...hold and patiently wait.

I think, again, based all on price, one reason this trend has had such a bumpy run up (as I had mentioned early in the year, it would be bumpy) and has not been pretty at all, in PMs, is all the overheard resistance above.

I mean just think, gold has FOUR YEARS worth of price levels above it right now. It will take an a lot of time and buying to get past it. As I have repeated many times, just BREAKING the downtrend was a massive undertaking and thats a big deal.

With the element of time, silver and gold should be able to cut through it, even if they have to dip lower from here.

Realization of a rally in the dollar and a rise in interest rates is starting to set in. I think at the least, a short term downtrend is to be expected.