What Happens To Gold And Silver Next? Look Out Below?

"Some of the problem with purchasing physical PM was due to supply issues. Premiums are high as well."

And you are in the April delivery period. This was a no brainer thats why I went on vacation.

Looks like push or pull back from somewhere, up to $24 now!

Yup...you have to admit there has to be very heavy short covering going on today.
Silver has gained today way more than any other commodity which obviously signals healthy dose of short covering...silver up 6.39% then copper was next best performing commodity at 3.12%.
From everything from corn to oil to cattle everything was up in the 0.5% to 2.5% range....silver was higher then this.

Of course your going to say, "In fact, it would have been much better for gold and silver to continue to sell off."....your a short seller....your not going to be pumped seeing silver ever go up.

The underlying principles that will led PM sector higher over time remain in tact...rate cuts in Europe...loose monetary policy in the US, and a bunch of stimulus in Japan.

The central banks of the world got a cheaper opportunity to buy some gold for the reserves...we should all thank Goldman Sach and Jp Morgan for this.

So again, whats key to remember for gold and silver, and using your proxy GLD and SLV going forward are-

1- GLD , how does it react as it goes to fill the gap. 143.43 is key as this was the point where we had the first day of selling. Ideally, want to see the gap closed first, and then that it holds and chops and bases here,,, and I am talking in terms of price.

2-Silver is next, SLV as your proxy if you are keeping track at home. Again, getting into this gap, and filling it, then getting above and stay above it by chopping and basing will be key.

I expect resistance at these points because price has memory, that is the sellers could very and can step in at these points.

As we progress in the move, should it move, I will look to see how far we can go.

Again I repeat that the downtrend is not over. These moves happen all the time and one should be careful in thinking that the all clear has been given.

Remember, I don't care if you agree with me or not, I don't care that you like or don't like me. I only want to adhere to what the market is saying, what is the price and volume telling me. My whole objective is to spot what the market is saying, I am not personally looking to be right, this is about being on the right side of the markets direction, I am neither for or against silver or gold. This allows me to be truly unbiased as I have been.

You can blabber on and on and on on theories why gold and silver are higher, that means nothing to me, zippo. You can blabber on why they should be lower, and yet I say,, if the price is saying otherwise, I will take price over opinions every single day of the week.

Hey everyone. I have been following this thread finding it very interesting and thought I would finally chime in.

To start, I just dipped my toes in the market and purchased an ounce of .9999 fine silver in the form of a reverse proof 2013 Canada Maple with the snake privy. The sleek reverse proof, all those 9s, a limited mintage PLUS an animal spirit. I am sold on this series (at least these past two years). Anyway, the point isn't about what I got. The point is that have allocated funds to purchase PMs (mostly as numismatics) and have been waiting expecting this drop and only yesterday pulled the trigger.

The gun only needed one bullet as the target was small and easy to hit. I got the coin for a good price that was far from possible for me last year when I purchasd the dragon privy. The gun has more bullets and I plan to purchase more silver and sometime in the next year my first gold... The key is when.

As of today, I am not ready to purchase more physical PMs as I see the price continuing to fall in the medium term. One thing to note (for disclosure) is that I am out of the country, making it difficult to purchase whatever I want at a fair price (or else I would probably have bought more than a single ounce!).

To my point... I am now a buyer of silver starting at these prices, but a cautious and excruciatingly slow purchaser during this econimic climate.

I have stated this in other threads, referencing articles, quotes, and graphs. I will stick to my own words now... I believe we are reaching the tail end of a secular bear market. During the past 100 years, PM prices have increased and spiked during each secular bear period. The trend has been for them to collapse to significantly lower prices during some late fragment of each cycle. PMs would then continue to be weak and "underperform" during the subsequent secular bull market.

A similar trend has been forming as large stake holders have moved money from PMs to equities and other "riskier" areas that have proven long term higher returns (according to what has been the case statistically in recent history).

Now, do not believe that I am endorsing taking your money from PMs and moving into equities. That is far from the case. I do believe though, that in the medium term PM prices will continue their downward trend. I also believe that will continue in the foreseeable medium/long term as it seems the secular bear market has already ended or more likely will be coming to an end in the next few years or less.

But, our government is disfunctional and the Fed's bond purchasing will come to an end. With this the case, I expect a period of volatility and a drop in equities as the issues are worked out and can-kicking ends. This is when I expect a retracement of PM prices to higher levels. This will be short lived as the economy will recover and the trend to leave PM will resume and prices will again continue to decline and continue for many years.

This is my opinion. Either way, I will enjoy that coin and look forward to getting the others on my list. Most likely when I return this summer.

So many things can make all this change. It seems like the wild wild west out there sometimes, and I find it fascinating!

To finish, one more thing. It is hard for me to gauge public opinion in US while I am away. I have read interesting things, though, about a posible end to austerity. This could be a game changer for the markets, but I am still cautious on gold and silver.

Ciao everyone.
Enjoy whatever time a day it is where you are!

I forgot about one item I wanted to add, a couple days ago someone had talked about the miners and their production and what not.

Last night I believe it was, NEM announced a reduction in their dividend, a very negative signal. This would imply, going forward, production will be less from the miners and that they are expecting lower gold prices going forward.

Last night I believe it was, NEM announced a reduction in their dividend, a very negative signal. This would imply, going forward, production will be less from the miners and that they are expecting lower gold prices going forward."

To imply that means they are expecting lower gold prices forward from a dividend cut shows your lack of knowledge...are you for real?
Stop looking at charts all day and think a little bit.

Newmount cut their divy because of production problems due to low grades (hence lower cash flow) and to give the balance sheet more flexibiltiy....AND THEY PLAN TO PRODUCE MORE GOLD in second half of the year...how do you form an opinion from that...that Newmount expects lower gold prices.

Very uneducated statement..enuff said. Stop staring at a chart all day...and read and think a little bit.