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 Replies: 5,643 / Views: 460,264 |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1590 Posts |
Fearmongering is what brought all these people out to buy silver coin; in the last couple of weeks. They bought because they heard that spot went down. The bought because of fear. And that fear kept them from realizing that while spot went down, the premiums went UP. In some cases, especially for Gold, those prices were HIGHER than they were before the fall. In fact I know several dealers that have laughed themselves silly because their prices never budged, and yet people still thought they were getting a good deal because of the FEAR that if they did NOT BUY RIGHT NOW the price would go up and they would miss out on THE DEAL. Which was really only a deal for the dealers.
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Valued Member
United States
329 Posts |
Thats exactly why I prefer the ETF. If you can't pick up the physical at extreme lows, then what's the point of buying it in the first place as investment or money? This is especially true of Silver where premiums are sky high.
Edited by wjl
05/11/2013 4:56 pm
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Valued Member
United States
432 Posts |
I think I am going to melt down all my silver and gold. With those junk materials I plan on making a real shiny safe so I can store all my precious yen, dollars, and other fiat.
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
3789 Posts |
Uh yea,, what Jim said,,, about dealers laughing silly,, thats exactly what I was told also couple weeks ago.... that people got sucked right into buyng when the prices fell and they didnt even budge on mark up
Its a shame but I mean the buyer has got to be aware in the first place
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
746 Posts |
Well, it was a might drop, so panic buying was a sure thing. I didn't notice premiums going up while the price was dropping.. but who wants to catch a falling knife? There were online tie-ups, out of stock messages, and non-competitive pricing though. Premiums were added shortly after the drop. But, that depends on the dealer, of course.
If the customer is paying higher than they would have before the fall due to premiums, then it might be good idea to find another dealer, with fair pricing methods.
I did notice that premiums have leveled off now and most items are back in stock. Should the price fall again, panic will set in again. Not easy to stay cool, but appears to be better to wait until the dust settles and things get back to normal before deciding to buy.
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
2805 Posts |
I've been very lucky to have a dealer in my city who recently opened and stocked after the drop. Premiums are tiny and I've been doing very well on my silver datesets. (I'd never get two of the same coin - even if silver drops to $3 an ounce, I'll keep the satisfaction of a complete quarter/dime/half set/a nice assortment of bullion rounds.)
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
I dunno guys,, I just really cant help think on what I saw this weekend and digested, leads me to believe that lower prices will be here.
I feel sorry for everyone who ran out and bought silver like crazy when they dropped hard,,and gold. Those folks are going to see that they should have just let prices tumble and not rushed in as prices fell.
QE will slowly but surely dry up, yields are quietly rising, the USD is going to also run up slowly. Not thats bad, its great and as a trader I see new areas that will be worth following as a trend.
That said, I think from here on out, one stays away from bullion purchases, if you want to buy silver and gold, buy only proof coins or uncirculated, such as from the US Mint or the Canadian Mint and stay the heck away from everything else until we finally get a floor in silver and gold. You will need a cushion of some sort going forward.
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Valued Member
United States
329 Posts |
I'm looking to take a position this week on weakness. I have a high cash position right now. QE will not end unless of course they want to adopt the Cyprus plan. Bennie "its just a sub prime crisis" Bernanke has been talking about a QE exit ever since he started QE and its only been increased. Its just talk from someone with near zero credibility. The exit from QE will cause CBs to buy more gold to balance out the principal loss on the their US bonds. QE's purpose was to keep the bonds marked up thereby lessening the requirement for CBs to buy gold. This is why Treasury stopped issuing new 30 yr. paper over a decade ago. The longer the duration the more gold they need to own.
The Washington Agreement was caused by the elimination of new 30 year paper. That put upward pressure on bond prices which allowed them to sell large quantities of gold. QE was merely a continuation of the policy to support bond prices.
Edited by wjl
05/12/2013 07:52 am
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
Ok guys at this stage-
lets see what are we gonna get in the coming day. Lower lows or higher highs in terms of price.
For now, look to see if today gold makes a lower low over the Friday close. Same with silver.
If you are playing at home, refer to SLV and GLD as your proxies.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
Nothing but continued chop and grinding around, going no where at all, tho it does semms more weakness is around the corner.
SLV- no higher high over Friday, but no lower lower either. Limbo.
GLD- no higher high over Friday, no once again, no lower low.
Both are still stuck in their downtrend. No attempts yet to fill the gap and so we continue in this holding pattern.
Until we get some move of authority by either the sellers or buyers, we will continue in this form.
I cant say it enough, patience is key.
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Valued Member
United States
329 Posts |
I'm back in. This looks good.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
686 Posts |
Nice thread! Slightly OT, but what gives with the positive cross price elasticity with gold and platinum?
Really these are to a large extent independent products. My guess is that platinum speculative interest is max 20% of that of gold. The price correlation does not make sense.
Is this an emotional correlation? I find it hard to believe that the big guys get emotional about this stuff.
Disclaimer: I do not own platinum but my wife has a bit. I bid on a Metcalf restrike a couple years ago but did not win.
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
815 Posts |
You know what happens to gold and silver next? It stays at almost *exactly* the same price as it is now until mid august. Man, I think some people need a hobby sometimes. Nothing has happened since the sudden price adjustment. September, October, if it is still low, we have something to talk about. Noone wants gold or silver when the sun is shining, wait until the shadows lengthen in the early fall.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
Alright!
Looks like we are going to be enjoying more chop. Lets run down how we are looking at gold and silver prices. Using GLD and SLV as our proxies-
GLD Higher high over yesterday, but a lower high. So more of the same, chop chop chop.
SLV this one is interesting and todays action continues to confirm my belief that silver is the weaker of the two. Today its making a lower high and lower low over yesterday. Watch to see if this continues, it could point to the buyers not being interested and sellers taking over.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
And so another day of chop and very little in the way of price movement,,, tho silver seems to be emerging as the weaker of the two.
Notice also how silver has started a steady dribble lower, watch to see if the spigots of selling gets turned on. Gold also remains in the chop, tho it managed a higher high along with a lower low today.
At best right now, gold and silver are dead money, stuck in an overall downtrend. I don't expect this to change and suspect that lower prices are coming and so we are in a mode of "not IF but WHEN" unless things change drastically.
In fact it seems like we went from seeing gold perhaps attempt to fill the gap to actually have minor lower gaps.
As always, be patient and give everything time to work itself out.
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Replies: 5,643 / Views: 460,264 |
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Posted 05/11/2013 4:25 pm
