| Author |
 Replies: 5,649 / Views: 460,742 |
|
|
|
Pillar of the Community
 United States
3789 Posts |
@coinwatch
Its really hard to say what the different desks will be doing or do. I would think that everyone would continue to be short gold and silver, possibly covering some of their lines and leaving some on.
Again no one really knows because no one is going around sharing who's doing want, all we do know is that seeing that silver and gold are in downtrends, the desks will be looking at areas in price to sell more gold and silver until things change.
|
|
Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
@Miggs
I like JR and agree with some things he says. He certainly understands trends and I am sure he wouldnt be backing up the truck and buying gold and silver no matter what his opinion was. He'd be waiting and watching to see what happens. I didnt watch the video but I would imagine he probably said "well gold is going down but I cant tell you exactly how long its going to go" or something to that effect.
|
|
Pillar of the Community
United States
830 Posts |
Quote:
At the risk of getting some flack from fellow members for posting this, some of the info in the clip
talks directly to allot of comments posted here in yup's thread. The first 8 min talks about the
Japanese banking system and derivatives but then dives in to gold and after with J.Rogers who
volunteers that gold might go lower before going back up.
No flack from me, thanks for posting.  I'm a new Keiser fan, he reminds me of Louis Rukeyser. I've also been a fan of Jim Rogers for a long time. |
|
Valued Member
Canada
281 Posts |
@GoThunder Thanks.I've been following him since 2008.At times he seems a bit flaky but his info is spot on. In 2007 he predicted the collapse of the Iceland economy because of the carry trade. He was influential with an Iceland movement which voted down the banker bailout in 2011 in a referendum. And because of that, Iceland is doing much better today than had they bailed out London and the Netherlands. Last December he predicted the meltdown of the bond market for April. He's off by a few months but in fact the interest rates have gone up and could signal the end of the 30 years bond rally, which he calls the bondpocalypse. All this to say, investors might divert their cash into PM's IF such a thing would happen http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hohweo1wNiU |
|
Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
Bonds are melting but they have nothing to do nor will impact gold and silver prices to where they go up. Rather, as the yields rise there is even less reason to own gold and silver. Its really a lose lose situation for gold and silver. Theres many head winds going forward and its going to take some big catalyst to get them going again.
Going to review the proxies in the next posting, inclding Friday that I ran out of time to cover last week.
|
|
Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
Lets go back in time, back to Friday to pick up where we are at
Going back to Friday, continued positive data, this time in regards to jobs pushed gold and silver lower, making them gap down. As you can see, good data continues to push silver and gold lower. This is something I want you all to zero in on. Keep track of how gold and silver react to good news. There will come a time when positive data disconnects with silver and gold dropping. By taking note of these reactions, you will get small subtle clues that gold and silver are no longer tied to positive data.
So again, for now we are in a market environment where positive economic data = lower prices in gold and silver. Watch to see when this correlation stops.
Notice also that the long was crushed on Friday also, government bonds are considered the ultimate safe haven, if they cant get a bid, gold and silver surely wont either.
For Friday our price action in our proxies
SLV- gap down, lower high, lower low from Thurs. close
GLD- gap down, lower high, lower low from Thurs. close
Lets now focus on today
So after the gaps from Friday, we once again revert to typical chop action. You might recall we have experienced this kind of action for several months, up, down, up, down, up, down, up to where we finally resolved the narrow range with a move lower.
That appears to be the course we continue on: Not enough sellers to follow through from the Friday gap lower and not enough buyers to push the price back into the gap. Look for more price action like this in the coming days.
Our proxies for today, Monday 7/8
GLD- higher high, higher low, still below the 6/26 gap
SLV- higher high, higher low, above the 6/26 gap and in the gap.
In the coming days and weeks it will be interesting to see where price is attracted to on gold and silver. There are two gaps to be filled first, last week both silver and gold started into one of them, only to be knocked down with the action from last Friday. This back and forth action, no matter how long it continues, will eventually be resolved as it was last time, so just be patient and watch how price reacts going forward.
|
|
Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
Tomorrow we have FOMC minutes so be on the watch as to the reaction from gold and silver.
As we can see, both silver and gold are again attempting to go into the gap. While this second attempt work or will they be derailed again? Only time will tell for sure.
Lets look at our proxies-
GLD- Higher high, higher low. Still in the gap but pulled back a tad.
SLV- higher high, higher low and still in the gap.
Tomorrows FOMC minutes might give gold and silver the catalyst they need to get out of this area price wise. As I have said, a retracement in price would not be out of the ordinary. Conversely, the downtrend could pick up pace again.
Stay patient and don't be a in hurry to rush things. Allow the market place to sort out where gold and silver are going.
|
|
Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
Probably a good day to buy stocks tomorrow lol.
|
|
Pillar of the Community
United Kingdom
548 Posts |
Not much movement for gold and silver. My guess is that this is another period of stability that will last a few weeks and prices will probably stick around $1250.
I think both metals have further to fall in the coming months. I won't be buying until near the end of the year at least.
|
|
Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
please note how GLD is again attempting a fill of the 6/25 gap today, watch and see if this continues into the FOMC minutes and then watch the reaction when the minutes are released later this afternoon
|
|
Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
well it looks like thus far the FOMC minutes were not supportive for gold and silver and they are pretty much flat at the moment. Keep watching how they act.
|
|
Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
wow whatever Big Ben said after the market closed shot up everything including gold and silver. Be interesting if this carries into the cash markets tomorrow.
be back before tonight.
|
|
Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
Looks like we have fireworks in the making.... or maybe not. Tomorrow will be key but you can follow along by watching the futures market overnight.
We can see today gold had a bit of wild ride intra-day, only to fizzle out by end of the day to end pretty much flat. Silver acted in the same manner.
So, the initial FOMC minutes did nothing to help gold and silver prices. But then we received Big Ben and his news conference at the end of the day. The markets reaction to what he said has sent indice futures up, bonds up, many world currencies up and yes, even gold and silver look set to gap up tomorrow.
Does this mean that all is well for gold and silver and we are now out of the downtrend?
Short answer is no. For starters, gap up's bring their own risk and can fail. Also, theres no doubt going to be a jump up in silver and gold as those who are short get squeezed and are forced to cover their shares. Finally, gold and silver have many levels of price resistance ahead of them, that is there are many layers or levels in price that gold and silver have to work through and that will take a lot of buyers.
So tomorrow, as you see gold and silver shoot up, as you hear the media talk about "is it time to buy gold now", remember, gold and silver are stuck in downtrends. It is on gold and silver to PROVE they are done going down and a sudden jump up doesn't solve or release them from the downtrend they are in. Again, be patient and watch. Do not be in a hurry to think all is well.
Lets look at our proxies-
GLD- higher high, higher low. A move into the gap and still in it.
SLV- higher high, lower high, still in the gap.
Lets see how far it gets gapped up. Then watch to see if the price can hold or does it get faded.
Remember, be patient.
|
|
Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
We got our gaps. Now watch and see first if they hold or get faded.
Also remember, this really should be a surprise, I'd have to think a lot of traders are getting squeezed here, those who came in late to selling short.
Gold and silver have plenty of work to do besides a gap up, and they continue in a strong downtrend, today changes NOTHING.
more later
|
|
Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
Big day for gold and silver today but many assets were up today. Nonetheless it was interesting to see a bounce in gold and silver.
Lets look at our proxies-
GLD- higher higher, higher low. up into the gap and filled it. next target is the 6/20 gap.
SLV- higher high, higher low and gap filled. Next gap to fill is the 6/20 gap.
So can we say the worst is over with gold and silver? Is it time to think that gold and silver are back on track?
No. Gold and silver are still in downtrends. Retracements are normal and should be expected. Also, one should expect that perhaps for now, a temporary low is in place but in no way does that mean that gold and silver are fine. They could stay off their yearly lows and languish for a long time doing nothing.
In my opinion, that best thing to do now is- if you want to raise some cash, sell some gold and silver into this bounce. Take advantage and cash some out. Never hurts to take profits.
Furthermore, notice how low and anemic the volume has been today and the other days of buying. It is not serious heavy volume that would be typical of heavy fund buying.
As I have said before, this is going to take time to finally resolve itself. One will need time and patience to pass to finally see where we settle at. This is a process and trends do NOT change overnight.
|
| |
Replies: 5,649 / Views: 460,742 |
First Page
Previous Page
Posted 07/05/2013 11:20 am
