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 Replies: 5,649 / Views: 461,021 |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
593 Posts |
I'm just happy silver stayed below $20 long enough for me to get my last pre-1965 Mint Set!
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Pillar of the Community
United States
593 Posts |
Quote:
just out of curiosity...why does everyone think gold and silver will start to dip lower in the next few weeks/months...i personally do not think gold will ever again break the 1100$ due to the minning expense and what nots same with silver I cannot see anything below $14-15$...but to each is own...i would like to hear some inputs on why you think it will go this low...just started following this forum and reading some posts....very interesting and I like the idea of this type of thread..keep it up! The AVERAGE cost of production is driven by price. It's the same thing with oil. When oil drops below a certain price, it is no longer cost-effective to extract oil from oil sands, so extraction from oil sands is suspended and the AVERAGE cost of production drops. The same thing happens with precious metals. When price is high (meaning demand exceeds supply), it makes sense to mine the very expensive sources of gold, thus driving up average cost of production. Conversely, when supply eclipses demand and price falls, there is no financial motivation to continue operating the more expensive mines. The expensive gold will still be there when demand outstrips supply again and it is once again profitable to go that deep for gold. As to prognostications, there is no rhyme or reason. It's just a WAG. (The last letter stands for guess). My WAG is $12 silver and $750 gold, but nobody really knows. If it does get that low, I'm likely to start giving serious consideration to filling a few spots in the Gold Page of my 7070. Edited by larsdog
08/08/2013 11:35 pm
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
3789 Posts |
@Bib
Glad I was able to help and you learned something that you can find useful for the future.
I cant remember the old exact quote but there was at great trader who back in the late 1800s said something to the effect that "by the time its told to the public its old news." ...... and that really is the case. No one gets a on a bull horn or mega phone and lets the public know whats really happening.
Only the insiders know and they aren't going to say it. However, the price action never lies, they cannot hide in the financial markets that they are buying and accumulating something and conversely, they cannot hide that they are selling and distributing their holdings of an asset. That is why again, as I repeat over and over, PRICE and volume are our biggest clues over whats going on and what direction things are going, those two metrics are ALWAYS spot on. ALWAYS TRUST PRICE is what is burned in my mind everyday of the trading week.
As far as selling short silver, I am not too sure about that, nor gold, as we don't see a clear move or confirmation. Both gold and silver, while still in the downtrend are just chopping around, doing nada. My guess is we continue to see them bounce in and out, perhaps even squeezing higher then dropping.
As always allow time and price to confirm the action that's needed.
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Valued Member
United States
95 Posts |
yup7676 I like what you said about price and volume and in commodities Commitment of Traders Report, this may be equal to the weekly mintage sales reports (I'm just a small player in both of these games). When I trade commodity options I always have a copy of this on my wall, I thinks it's geared more for stocks but thought I'd share it anyway. Quote:
I cant remember the old exact quote but there was at great trader who back in the late 1800s said something to the effect that "by the time its told to the public its old news." ...... and that really is the case. No one gets a on a bull horn or mega phone and lets the public know whats really happening.
Only the insiders know and they aren't going to say it. However, the price action never lies, they cannot hide in the financial markets that they are buying and accumulating something and conversely, they cannot hide that they are selling and distributing their holdings of an asset. Types of traders/investorsShort-term or swing trader: Usually in the market for a few days or possibly a few weeks (depending on the strength or weakness of the market). Can trade off the exchange floor and is much less time-consuming. Trades using daily charts. Intermediate-term trader: In the market for weeks and in, some cases months at a time. Looking for bigger market moves. Not time consuming. Trades using weekly charts. Long-term investor (sometimes called position trading): In the market for months and, in some case years at a time. Looking for long term major moves. Least amount of time needed to follow. Trades using monthly data and charts. SIX STEPS and the IRREFUTABLE LAWS of the MARKET Every Investor and Trader MUST KNOW to Succeed Step 1. A move begins with the sponsors (smart traders) who have insider knowledge as it relates to a particular stock or market. This information will move a market up or down depending on the insiders' information. (These buyers are smart and recognize trading/investment opportunities very early in the markup cycle.) Step 2. Occurs days, weeks and in some cases, months after a move has started. There may be a mention in the electronic media (radio, cable, TV) or on one of the chat boards that a market has moved. (Public hears for the first time and starts getting interested. Does not buy.) Step 3. A blurb of information appears in the print media (yes, believe it or not, a lot of people still read newspapers). It also begins to get more blog time on the message boards. (Public begins to get interested and buys a little.) Step 4. Wall Street and LaSalle Street brokers go into full hype mode and hawk the market to their customers. (Public begins buying.) Step 5. A full-blown front page article appears about the particular market or stock in one of the major financial newspapers, magazines or financial websites. This can be six months after the fact and after a market has shown its greatest appreciation. (Heavy public buying/possible frenzy as all media, brokers, gurus start to tout the market.) Remember the dot-com bubble, or more recently, crude oil? Many of those dot-bomb stocks are out of business or still well below their peak bubble prices. Step 6. The sponsors and smart traders begin to move out of the market and take their profits off the table when Step 5 is underway. Debriefing: Move ends, market falls, investors lose money. It doesn't have to be this way. |
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Valued Member
United States
95 Posts |
yup7676 I like what you said about price and volume and in commodities Commitment of Traders Report, this may be equal to the weekly mintage sales reports (I'm just a small player in both of these games). When I trade commodity options I always have a copy of this on my wall, I thinks it's geared more for stocks but thought I'd share it anyway. Quote:
I cant remember the old exact quote but there was at great trader who back in the late 1800s said something to the effect that "by the time its told to the public its old news." ...... and that really is the case. No one gets a on a bull horn or mega phone and lets the public know whats really happening.
Only the insiders know and they aren't going to say it. However, the price action never lies, they cannot hide in the financial markets that they are buying and accumulating something and conversely, they cannot hide that they are selling and distributing their holdings of an asset. Types of traders/investorsShort-term or swing trader: Usually in the market for a few days or possibly a few weeks (depending on the strength or weakness of the market). Can trade off the exchange floor and is much less time-consuming. Trades using daily charts. Intermediate-term trader: In the market for weeks and in, some cases months at a time. Looking for bigger market moves. Not time consuming. Trades using weekly charts. Long-term investor (sometimes called position trading): In the market for months and, in some case years at a time. Looking for long term major moves. Least amount of time needed to follow. Trades using monthly data and charts. SIX STEPS and the IRREFUTABLE LAWS of the MARKET Every Investor and Trader MUST KNOW to Succeed Step 1. A move begins with the sponsors (smart traders) who have insider knowledge as it relates to a particular stock or market. This information will move a market up or down depending on the insiders' information. (These buyers are smart and recognize trading/investment opportunities very early in the markup cycle.) Step 2. Occurs days, weeks and in some cases, months after a move has started. There may be a mention in the electronic media (radio, cable, TV) or on one of the chat boards that a market has moved. (Public hears for the first time and starts getting interested. Does not buy.) Step 3. A blurb of information appears in the print media (yes, believe it or not, a lot of people still read newspapers). It also begins to get more blog time on the message boards. (Public begins to get interested and buys a little.) Step 4. Wall Street and LaSalle Street brokers go into full hype mode and hawk the market to their customers. (Public begins buying.) Step 5. A full-blown front page article appears about the particular market or stock in one of the major financial newspapers, magazines or financial websites. This can be six months after the fact and after a market has shown its greatest appreciation. (Heavy public buying/possible frenzy as all media, brokers, gurus start to tout the market.) Remember the dot-com bubble, or more recently, crude oil? Many of those dot-bomb stocks are out of business or still well below their peak bubble prices. Step 6. The sponsors and smart traders begin to move out of the market and take their profits off the table when Step 5 is underway. Debriefing: Move ends, market falls, investors lose money. It doesn't have to be this way. |
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Valued Member
United States
95 Posts |
Sorry for the duplicate reply, I don't know how to delete it..
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
Hey CT
Glad to see that many folks here, as I thought are bright, intelligent and do or are wanting to understand makets. For a long time when I started this thread, many early early comments poo pooed the notion that our community was smart enough to understand ETFs, selling shorts, price action , heck many here told me that this had nothing to do with PMs. I knew that a large majority were interested or had been involved in assets beyond just buying physical silver and gold coins so its refreshing to see people chip in on this thread.
But no CT, what you posted is very true of all assets, from stocks to currencies and anything in between and I agree with those points. I agree with that list, thats how it goes down each and every single time and gold and silver will be no different.
Thats why we need to respect the price action. Thats the markets way of speaking to us in simple terms and it has no bias.
Which some of those points CT has in his list I have thought about. I STILL hear on the radio commercials about gold and silver being the place you must put your money into. I still see gold and silver shops everywhere. I also still see talking heads talking about price targets. One says 1,000 is the bottom. Others say below that. Still others say the worst is over. The fact is none of them are right and time is going to be needed to see where we find a footing for silver and gold.
Excellent list CT, glad you posted that.
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Pillar of the Community
United Kingdom
548 Posts |
I'm still seeing adverts in my local paper with stores offering to buy gold. I can only assume that the prices they offer are so low for a walk-in seller (and so high for a walk-in buyer) that they can keep going at least until there's a more significant drop in the gold price.
Shysters.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1590 Posts |
While on the west coast for a couple of months, I made many, many trips to various coin shops and "Cash for Gold" shops. Right before I left in late July the consensus price for "junk" Morgans and Peace dollars was around $20-2. Sliders were easily had for $24-8 dollars and common Unc's were priced at $25-28 dollars. I get home and check out the competition and their prices have NOT BUDGED in two months! They are still selling bullion Morgans and Peace at $30. Or...well...they are pricing them at that price. They figure that with me out of town they owned the market and could charge what they want! They both expect $32-6 dollar silver 'any day now'.  ....the public is not buying it this time! They are tired of being paid $12 for a Morgan or Peace dollar.."based on spot", and then seeing those same dollars being sold for $18 more! They feel ripped off! I reopened with a quarter bag (250) dollars and sold out in three days. People are starved for cheaper Silver, but have grown knowledgable enough to wait out the greed. |
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Valued Member
United States
239 Posts |
Can someone explain the sunday market to me? Why does it seem to open for about 3hrs or so? Is it because its Monday morning already oversea's? (China, Japan)?
Whats the deal with this $21 spike?
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3670 Posts |
It's Monday morning open market in Asia Jenger-the world market is open for business indeed.....
Thar she blows like a white hump on a swelling snow hill in the distance.....
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
@Jenger
really nothing unusual. Futures markets are open at 5 CST PM and most everything starts trading. volume thin at times. Things wont heat up until we rotate in our regular trading hours.
Should this carry over into tomorrow AM, I expect silver and gold to go into the gap, once again. But do they hold? They have tried before and stalled out.
Yet with this price action, gold and silver remain in a firm downtrend, nothing has changed.
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Valued Member
United States
223 Posts |
What is the price range for silver that you keep referencing?
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
AA I need more specifics, I dont understand your question...
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Valued Member
United States
223 Posts |
The gap that you reference. We were below the gap in the $18 range and now in the $21.50 range you have us moving into the gap. What is the price range or is it a volume issue?
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Posted 08/08/2013 11:30 pm
