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 Replies: 5,649 / Views: 461,044 |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1554 Posts |
Don't forget YUP the markets have memory...memory....memory. And, this Summers downtrend WILL be temporary and in fact has been pushing upwards for a month. You can go on and on about the way you see things. There has been evidence of manipulation for years, you think I was born yesterday? "suckers and fools" pretty big words for paper man don't you think? I was playing with silver when you were in diapers and will still be playing with it long after your games are played out. Good luck.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1590 Posts |
Ummmmm, I hate to use FACTS, but the last big leg down was in the Spring. This Summer has seen nothing but upwards pricing.
The downtrend has been ongoing for 18 or so months, not 6 weeks.
Also, you are making some assumptions about Yups age. He could be 18, he could be 40, he could be 90. YOU have no idea.
I've been "playing with silver" since 1965, and I am far more in his camp than yours. I KNOW there is a glut of silver on the market. I read the trades. And I don't mean the Commodities rags. I'm talking about the Industrial trades.
Anyway, lets all be civil.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1554 Posts |
The civility ended with YUPS last post. AND I will guess he is younger than I am by 15-20 years. JK you can be more in his camp than mine, AOK with me. I will again state that my opinion is a manipulation this Spring and Summer AND IT WON'T HOLD. The upwards trend is in motion. Good luck.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3670 Posts |
Tops and bottoms don't exist, there are only fluctuating prices in-between which will always be changing....
Humans live their lives by cycles, and no doubt their predictable set in ways nature is tied into the spot price fluctuating....
As I have often said if the prices took off back when it hit 50 and never turned back we ALL would be out of the game as would rest of world. No buyers no bullion sells eh via TOO high prices just prevents what you got into the business to begin with, via move product....
I just feel its time for that 18 month cycle to change direction for a while, maybe push to 55 or 60 this time a bit more then last before it takes another couple of years to spiral back down to RE-entry level prices where the game and CYCLE can begin again....
Edited by Silverhawk74
08/13/2013 12:14 am
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3670 Posts |
Funny thing about human nature and spot price to add to that thought.... We could be say about to hit 2500 gold for first time in history say in around 2015 in my estimation..... Lets a say a couple HIGH roller/big bullion spenders spots the same nice 1 oz gold piece setting at buy it now 2400 or 100 bucks below spot, and to add to it lets say that is a nice piece worth in THEORY a couple hundred over spot.... WELL HOW LONG do you actually think that piece would set on running auction or buy it now if this was indeed the case something you almost NEVER see on ebay minus crooks or something too good to be true? I bet it would not last long say half a day or so even if that buyers entire CORE INSTINCTS told them that we were near the peak and a pull back was most likely and one could get same piece in say 6 months to a year at 1300.... HUMANS can NOT resist a sub spot deal and it would by law of the spot price bullion world it would draw a bid EVERY-TIME if it was indeed priced enough below that current spot price regardless of how high current spot price was and a fall seemed inevitable.... Edited by Silverhawk74
08/13/2013 12:25 am
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1554 Posts |
DUDE, chill a bit. Interesting thoughts but, HUH?
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3670 Posts |
I just dont think regardless of your age 1893S that you are on a level HIGH enough to in-gage in a conversation with me and UNDERSTAND the words typing from my FINGERS....
To be frank and honest as I have always viewed you as a troll again as you have always struck out at me here over time, when I had never said anything negative your way first and odd as you were TOTALLY against silver about a year and a half too two years back...
Or simply defined a true *** Edited by Staff | The bad word filter is in place for a reason. Bypassing the filter and making the intended word obvious anyway is completely unacceptable. *** hole period and I think many would agree with me lol. But hey just kidding buddy :), lets do lunch one day.....
Edited by Silverhawk74
08/13/2013 12:41 am
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3670 Posts |
It was way in-mature on part and unacceptable but man it felt good.....
Edited by Silverhawk74
08/13/2013 12:38 am
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Pillar of the Community
Australia
7096 Posts |
This has been an interesting thread and I would hate to see it closed. Civility MUST be maintained otherwise everything turns to MUD real fast. Everyone has the right to air their opinions and that it great, But Snide remarks can only inflame already frayed tempers. So keep in in your pants you mob and let the games continue  |
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Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
Quote:
Maybe you are just a numbers guy as baseball is all about the mathematical statistics eh, as one could argue the pm and markets in general are all based on same mathematical formulas and equations.... Thats actually not as far off of an analogy as you may have thought it was after making it. I can actually describe this whole situation while using a baseball analogy at the same time. Since I love baseball and this thread could use some lightening up I'm going to do it. Theres generally five types of baseball players: Franchise players, All Stars, Everyday players, Role Players, and Bench players. This mimics the investor types very closely and a heck of a lot more than you guys must be thinking about right now. The Franchise players are your institutional money. What they want they get, they are how you win championships and how investors make a lot of money. Unfortunately for Silver and PMs theyre the Miami Marlins and the institutions are Miguel Cabrera, they wanted out and theyre long gone now. Other franchise/stocks/commodities are reaping the benefits of them now. The All Star players are your rich individuals. Theyre important and with a bunch of them they can build a bright future, but a single one wont turn around a basement dweller. You can win a championship with them but you wont build a dynasty. In the money world you can do well on their coat tails but again it wont be anything to go crazy about. Theyll have good years and bad years but overall you should have more good than bad years. The Everyday players are your upper middle class. Theyre important and with enough of them you can be competitive. That doesn't mean youll win any championships or even have a deep playoff run, but you wont embarrass yourself out there either. They need the franchise or the all stars to go to the next level though. If you have enough of these you can make money, it wont be a lot but some is better than nothing. The role players are your middle class. They have a role to play but they arent trend setters. They can help a winning team or push a great stock/commodities higher but they arent important until the other pieces above are already there. They cant build a winning team on their own and if thats all you have youll be lucky to be .500. You may get a good season or two out of them but they jump around and dont stick with a single team or single market long term generally. They want to be on winning teams and winning teams are the only ones with interest in them. The bench players can be the last piece to really push something to new heights. Theyre your pinch hitters, or situational relievers. Theyre the lower middle class or young/new investors. A steady flow of them can be icing on the cake but the names will have a lot of turn over and you cant even think about building a winning team or making money off of just them. Those that hold onto that only metals are real money shunning all other forms of investments or claiming world wide conspiracies are the aging veterans. Theyre the power hitter hitting long flyouts instead of homeruns who refuses to change their approach, or the flame thrower that lost a few mph on the fastball who think they can still throw it by anyone. The game is passing them by and they arent making adjustments. Basically with metals we have our everyday/role players and a couple all stars but the all stars are fading and we dont have enough to win a championship or make a deep playoff run. The institutional money is gone and the big money is leaving for greener pastures. They found better deals on the open market and left town. Maybe they come back some day, but they arent here now. The upside is very limited under those circumstances and better offers are on the table. Thats what I'm seeing right now and a couple weeks doesn't lead me to believe that metals drafted a Mike Trout or Kershaw and great days are ahead. In other words nothings changed enough to attract whats necessary for it to be worth it. You go to the game for teams like that because you like the team and want to see them, or you buy the silver because you like it at this point. But you dont go expecting a championship or buy hoping for financial gain right now. Were in that weird spot where its strong enough you wont have a high draft pick but not good enough to be competitive. In other words theres still a lot of downside even for buying for the future and it may takes years or decades until that happens. Even then the upside is limited at this entry point. Like your favorite team nothing we do will change what happens, all you can do is have a realistic view and just enjoy what you want to enjoy but a short winning streak (aka this small price run) doesn't mean that the fundamentals have changed. If anyone needs any of that clarified just let me know. Edited by basebal21
08/13/2013 02:42 am
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Valued Member
Canada
470 Posts |
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Pillar of the Community
Australia
7096 Posts |
Good post 1188howest  |
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
3789 Posts |
Mr 1893S....
First of all as I stated, calling tops and bottoms is widely recognized and noted as a suckers and fools game. Saying that is not offensive and if you want to call tops and bottoms that's fine by me but I don't make money that way and everyone I have seen play game always ends up being wrong. OF COURSE you are entitled to your opinion and no one has denied you that and you shouldn't be quick to take offense and take it personal. However, if you cant accept that people are not going to agree with you then I dunno, I cant help you there.
Second, price does have memory. But how you are using that to support your baseless call is wrong. What you fail to realize is that all those prices ABOVE where we are at, gold and silver will "remember" those areas and they now turn into HEAVY resistance price wise, that is to say those areas will be where sellers show up. Those areas were met with heavy volume selling. Gold and silver have a TON of work ahead of them to crack all those levels if they are to get out of the downtrend.
Over the years I have seen many many many assets turn things around, going from heavy selling and hitting yearly lows, then chopping around in a narrow range for a long time and then finally getting a stable floor and filling gaps on the way up, grinding and chopping, filling more gaps and then finally again hitting yearly highs. Things can change and do change.
However when it comes to gold and silver I am not seeing this yet. The downtrend continues. Furthermore, turn around like this just don't happen after some selling and then all is well. It takes TIME..... and it will take TIME for gold and silver to get stable. In addition, we are talking about a commodity that is measured by supply and demand. There are no P/E's, no value investors and no overwhelming demand that is outstripping supply for gold and silver.
All this brings me to manipulation. That just stinks to hear that because to me, the ones I always see hanging on to "manipulation" are always the shills who are pushing gold and silver. Furthermore, where is the solid evidence and proof of manipulation. On top of that, as I have already said that if supposedly "banks" drove prices down, then are we to suppose that the evil banks drove the price up then? I mean this talk about manipulation is all silly talk. In fact it seems like talk that is generated by sore losers who dislike seeing a free market work. Prices go up, prices go down. There is always going to be two parties involved in how things get priced. I mean really, to think that prices must rise constantly is so unrealistic.
Finally, to me I don't care what direction gold and silver go. How many times must I repeat myself- I only care for well defined trend. If gold and silver can prove the downtrend is broken, then I would be saying its time to buy gold and silver because I would have confirmation of the trend. I dont see that yet. All I see is gold and silver still stuck in a downtrend with a lot of work ahead of them to get out of the downtrend. So it will take time and I have all the time in the world to watch things and see how they play out.
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Valued Member
United States
95 Posts |
I know I'm rivited to this thread.  |
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Valued Member
United States
95 Posts |
Even more so now that I can spell. I know I'm riveted to this thread |
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Replies: 5,649 / Views: 461,044 |
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Posted 08/12/2013 11:47 pm
