RCM New Release: 2018 2 Oz. Pure Silver Coin With Selective Blue Rhodium Plating - Great White Shark

I watched an auction yesterday (Nov18) where there were a significant number of recent RCM NCLT issues. I was surprised at the number of issues that went without bid. Start price on the Silver was typically less than half of original issue, an example was the 2013 Lunar Series - Snake with Scalloped edge... This was issued for $99, offered for a start price of $45 and there were no-bidders, same for the 2018 Dog with a start price of $40... that was just issued at $101. If these were a singular events then one could assume an undesired coin or series but it was a common event. Many of the NCLT that did sell went for start price... aka no competition for the item.

And before you think it was a under-subscribed auction, there was plenty of engagement on many of the historical NCLT, a 1960 PL set in a Type 3 card sold for $88 (incl premium), a 1957 PL set sold for $188. All pretty close to the Charlton predicted values... Circulation and paper seemed to sell well but I don't know where the prices were relative to market, only that they appeared to move.. the Silver NCLT not so much... A 1996 Avro Arrow sold for $59 after premium... The original issue price for this was $58 twenty two years ago and at one point, it commanded prices of $150. Other coins in the aviation series sold for a small premium on bullion.

It is fairly clear that the flood of product that the RCM has released both in mintages and sheer number of products, in combination with online auctions granting broad availability has killed the NCLT market; at least in Silver. The only NCLT that I see retaining or growing in value that is older than 5 years is 1oz or more gold with mintages less than 1,000. Even the $100 gold series are mostly trending after 10 years to bullion value.

I still stand by the guidance that as a hobbyist, you should pick your purchases based on what you like, not a perceived investment for the future but it seems that today, more than any other time in the past, the "smart" way to buy is 5yrs+ after issue and from an online auction. However, what happens if everyone thinks that way... If there are no primary sales, the RCM will back away from the NCLT market. I also fear for the future of the LCS, at least as far as NCLT is concerned. There is still a business in circulating coins, international issues and the difficult to obtain but as other topics have discussed, as we move inexorably towards a cashless society, will we see the end of the RCM in our lifetimes? I seriously doubt that my ancestor will be picking up a 50-cent 1908-2108 Two Hundred Year anniversary coin the way I picked up the 100 year anniversary coin this weekend.

Absolutely agree! A number of us here have been touting this approach for a few years - I only hope we've had a positive impact on new collectors who have visited CCF.



While I can agree with this from a purely financial perspective, I believe it takes some of the excitement away from the collecting of a current series of coins. I enjoy adding a few new releases to my collection each year.

Each year's new RCM releases are not a major cash outlay for me, however, as I generally purchase only the new silver dollars and maybe two or three other coins that grab my attention. Even if each of my purchases ultimately loses 40-50% in value, the net annual total is not very much in actual dollars and I'm OK with the trade off of a few lost dollars in exchange for enjoying the commemorative coins I buy at the time they are released. I immediately get to share the coins with fellow collectors through exhibits, articles, show-and-tell at my local club, etc. and enjoy teaching others about the events they commemorate at the same time the anniversary is being celebrated. But that's the way I collect, everyone needs to find the way that makes them happy!

@vonigohcr: Thanks for your informative and well-reasoned post. I enjoyed reading it.