August 2021 - RCM Release

I agree! I wonder if they consulted with the German Baden-Wuerttemberg Mint - and others in Germany - on the technical process for striking such pieces. Germany successfully issued its first polymer ring coin back in 2016 and has issued several since.

@Vonigohcr

Thank you for posting new releases but the Gold crown 2022 fractional set does not have the half ounce coin. It is the one ounce with platinum, quarter ounce, 1/10th of an ounce and finally 1/20th of an ounce. Just for clarification.

D'oh

I couldn't find the listing on the website and was squinting on the email... Thanks for the correction... I corrected the original post.

The previous 5 oz. silver coins were all relatively quick sell-outs - by only making 1,000 available, the Mint "left money on the table." Why wouldn't it push the limit a bit to determine market demand and try to generate more revenue? Generating revenue is its objective, after all. (The 2021 Maple Leaf in Motion $5.00 coin sold out a mintage of 1,500.)

I will start with the comment that this coin is not for me; it doesn't fit the current direction of my collection. In fact, I have almost completely walked away from 1oz or more silver due to the price charged by the mint. I do find it interesting though that there has been little recognition that the price of the raw material for these products has risen significantly.

Over the past few years (pre-pandemic) silver maples have averaged $20-$25CDN. That is purchase price from a dealer. Now, they are $38 and higher. This coin represents 2.3x a stack of 5 1 oz maples. This is way less than the 5-6x we were being asked to pay for the big coins when they were released in 2015. When you consider the technology (accurate scale representation of the lakes, selective colouring) and the "beauty" packaging... the multiple over the raw price is not unreasonable.

There is a very similar discussion on a parallel thread in this forum discussing the $105K 1kg gold coins... they are only 1.4x bullion equivalent.

Even "heavily worn" circulating (pre-1967) silver dollars contain $22 worth of silver at current maple equivalent pricing.

Another way to look at this is the "Big coins" were issued at $550. This coin at $650 represents an 18% increase in price over 5+ years. Bullion silver has gone from $25 to $38 in the same period or around 50% increase.

Supply chains all around the world are being disrupted for various reasons... I delayed an addition to my house this spring because the cost of construction lumber had soared and completely changed the financial equation. Whether the reason for the increase in price of silver & gold is due to industrial demand, hedging/hoarding against inflation or whatever, the reality is that the price of PMs is much higher today than it was and the RCM has passed on some but not all of this increase.

What will be telling is whether gold & silver are at a new price plateau and we will just have to get used to it or whether the price will decline to pre-2020 levels and how the RCM will react. It is clear that the RCM is attempting to understand this new market... They reduced the price of a gold ounce from $4,200 to $4,000 between the May and July releases as neither of the May releases have sold out when previously they may have been expected to do so.

Personally, I have not fallen into a money well and am far from rolling in excess $$$. With the cost of everything having climbed significantly over the past 18 months, I am being much more selective in my discretionary purchases... that extends to construction additions as well as hobbies like numismatics and I doubt I am alone. As @commems suggests, the RCM is testing the water.

@vonigohcr

Thank you for all the valid points. Perhaps producing the Great Lakes coin with color over engraved relief justifies the price hike. Still, the Avro Arrow was selling for $569.95 and Snowbird at $599.95, just a few months back. It still makes no sense why the huge increase of $649.95 in the Great Lakes coin when Silver is stable to slowly dropping. I would of expected for the price to be at $599.95 and perhaps we wouldn't be having this discussion. I then would of considered in purchasing the coin as well as some other folks.

@moneypenney

I don't disagree but I am not sure that significant premiums will ever be retained long term. Remember past furors: Aviation Series 1: Lancaster, Swarovski Crystal Snowflakes, even the mighty Ladybug/Tulip is now declining 10 years in. Among the few silver coins I see that appear to be retaining premiums are the 2007 Silver Proof Loons from the Baby giftware sets.

I think the challenge is that there are competing motivations; business, investor and collector. The RCM is a business and like most businesses, they make money by selling their product for the most that the market will bear. I think this is an attempt by the RCM to test the market... Higher Price, Higher Mintage may expose the limits of the market. As I noted above they already had a rollback on the 1oz Gold dropping 5% between May and July. It is what I would do were I selling trinket commodities.

The investor/speculator motivation is to buy an item and watch it appreciate in value before it is sold. Investor/speculators will sell the minute they think they can realise the profit target they want to achieve. Conversely, the investor/speculator is part of the problem... If an investor gets their hands on a higher quantity of items and they can't sell at profit, they will drop their price and take a loss to prop up their cashflow rather than hold... It is this speculation that has driven the mint into producing thousands of units of a given design.

NCLT is a dud from an investor/speculator perspective. The "hits" are too rare and the investment goal is not actively supported by the RCM. If it were, there would be a lot more sub 100 or 500 mintages and not only at $100K+ price point.

The collector motivation is to grow their collection with items that appeal and are aligned with the direction of their collection; most collectors won't sell or will do so rarely.

The collector motivation is supported by the RCM by offering a breadth of product that is of high quality, innovates and has interesting design... They are known to miss (How many moose or maple leaf or grizzly bear images can we support)... they also miss on quality from time to time... The golden toning on silver coins has become a recurring issue... I have a few and it is not environmental as they are stored right next to coins that don't exhibit this... Oh and the UK Royal Mint also has this issue. That said, the RCM NCLT group is focused on collectors... they recognise that the market is fragile but there is some elasticity... I think they are just testing the current boundaries.

As an aside... this phenomenon is not unique to the RCM or even NCLT collecting. Take a look at rare guitars (my other vice). The 1959 Gibson Les Paul is a classic and when available at auction will go for 6 digits if not 7 if there is a great pedigree. Gibson release 1959 reissue guitars annually with sale prices from $5,000CDN -$15,000CDN. There is no shortage of these re-issue guitars but on sites like Reverb (Think ebay for musical instruments) they are routinely selling for premiums over the initial sale price. It is a bubble whose burst point is past due. In another parallel... there are even forgeries to contend with...

All I am saying is that the RCM NCLT group like the Gibson Reissue group is a business that caters to collectors not investors. It is investors who confuse the market demand and lead the RCM into producing more than the collector market will ultimately bear resulting in a crash to bullion values where NCLT can become legitimate investor product. All you have to do is look at $100 and $200 gold issued prior to 1990... It all sells at bullion equivalent... albeit a premium over issue.