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 Replies: 21 / Views: 2,590 |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
808 Posts |
The temptation to literally go all in would be overwhelming, wouldn't it? Personally, seeing a PM price drop like that, as exciting as it would be, would also be pretty scary. Part of what we're talking about here could actually happen in a deflationary spiral. Ugly, ugly, ugly.   Yeah, the wife would never go for bringing a mortgage back into our lives. Asset reallocation would have to be the way to go. And, you know? I'd probably still only allocate 20% of whatever I had into PMs. Who knows, but even with the risk, that's some crazy amazing appreciation potential. Easily enough to get you started financing your future fiefdom.  |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4008 Posts |
That sounds to me like a "back up the truck" scenario. Yeah, I would be VERY tempted to buy at least $250k worth of gold and another $50k of silver at those prices. The basic fiat paradigm has not changed a bit, so what's not to like about converting a lot of it into REAL money?  OTOH, if I had access to that time machine, I would be very tempted to turn the dial on the flux capacitor back a few turns to around 1900 when gold was $21.67 an oz. Not sure what I would take with me as payment, though. Zircons? lol |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1454 Posts |
I know what you're saying, CW. But I honestly don't think I could help myself. I'd be thinking long-term investment, of course. As long as I got a decent interest rate on the Re-Fi, I believe I'd make out well... eventually. How much one "bets" would depend more on one's age and financial status, I think. At 43, I figure I'd have enough time to recoup my investment, even if it took two decades. Funny that Barry brought it up, actually. In 2008, when the PM market tanked, I took out a home loan for $18K and invested it all in silver. I easily doubled, if not tripled, my money in under three years. I'd take the same risk again, no doubt.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
808 Posts |
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I easily doubled, if not tripled, my money in under three years. Outstanding, traevin! You know, it all comes down to having the knowledge to recognize an opportunity and the guts to seize the moment. If conditions shape up to ever let you to try that again, go for it! I have a couple of years on you, but I too feel I could safely weather some risk in a larger PM play and hopefully come out ahead before things are said and done. We'll see what the future holds. |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
648 Posts |
100 oz's of Gold @ $350 & 5,000 oz's of Silver @ $5. I would back the truck up on Gold...to me and at this point in my non-married/no children life... 5,000 oz's of silver is enough for me to play with...I would then watch closely before stacking some more.
100k? Hmmm - I would realistically be 60k PM, 40k in powder waiting to stack away.
Edited by tripncoins
08/14/2012 7:14 pm
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2661 Posts |
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40k in powder  You are speaking of Rhodium Sponge...............aren't you? |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
648 Posts |
Maybe if the price is right! ;-)
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1195 Posts |
My grandpa has in trust for me $85K in CD's. I would ask if I could take $42K of that out to invest $21k in gold, $7k in modern bullion silver, and $14k in junk silver halves and quarters.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3294 Posts |
about 4k face value of 90% sounds good
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Valued Member
United States
425 Posts |
OK, this is a fun one. But I have a problem or two with this question............
Yes, if it was a "Time-Machine" deal it would be very tempting to not buy all the PMs you could get your cash around, but what about the butterfly effect? The idea that ever thing you do in the past affects and effects the future you plan to return too. What if you buying PMs like mad sparks others to buy and that some how does not allow for the big up-turn we have seen over the past 10 years?
As for an over-nite drop in PM prices...... you may not want to buy, buy, buy, for fear of it not going up again. Oh you may say you would......... but would you really? Back about 12 years ago I had never bought a single PM in my life, I only had the old coins my family had given me here and there. I woke up to the fact that Gold was at about $270 an oz. and it had never really been that low. I told my wife, my father in law, my family, my friends, "Buy GOld NOW!". No one listened to me, said I was crazy, Gold is not gonna go up. I bought all that I could, anything I could sell and buy Gold with, and stopped buying it at about $350 an oz. (I know, I know, don't say it!). When it hit $875 an oz. I was sure that was the top and sold most of it off. It went on to double that mark and that is why I say if PMs crashed tomorrow to what they were 10 years ago, we would not buy..... we would try and sell...... or be too busy kicking ourselves for buying so high!
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4008 Posts |
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In 2008, when the PM market tanked, I took out a home loan for $18K and invested it all in silver. I easily doubled, if not tripled, my money in under three years. I'd take the same risk again, no doubt. Gutsy move, T. VERY well done! Quote:
...but what about the butterfly effect? My thought would be, "Well, what about it?". Seems to me that if one worries about such things, they would be paralyzed and unable to do anything. Besides, who is to say that the world as it is now is all that perfect that we must do nothing to change it in any way? It could very well be that the small changes caused by time travelers would really not be all that significant. Changing BIG events upon which history has turned, however, would not fall into this class. |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
863 Posts |
If it did end up going that low I think there would be a big premium on the PM's. there is already a shortage on the 90%. Companies are having hard times filling orders.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1454 Posts |
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If it did end up going that low I think there would be a big premium on the PM's. You're right. Dealers wouldn't sell. PMs would have to stay that low for a few weeks before sellers adjusted to the lower market value of precious metals. But they eventually, grudgingly will accept the new paradigm- or find a new job. |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4008 Posts |
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But they eventually, grudgingly will accept the new paradigm- or find a new job.
Reality does have a nasty habit of intruding upon closely held beliefs.  |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
863 Posts |
just before Y2K silver had 150% premiums. I think it would have the same effect now. and because so many people would end up buying it it would not be able to stay low.
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Replies: 21 / Views: 2,590 |
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First Page
Posted 08/14/2012 6:07 pm
