How Will Coin Collectors Interpret Certified Coin Grades...

THIS. Articles like this kind of irritate me because they make coin collecting seem, well, not fun at all. And I certainly think that anyone new to the hobby would feel the same way after reading this. I think the ultra rich collectors with their ultra collections would find it relevant, but let's hope that the "joy/fun" of coin collecting will always remain the dominant philosophy of the hobby.

I agree that if you know how to grade then you are well on your way to making sure that the coins you buy are going to be a safe bet. However we don't collect coins in a vacuum. As long as you are buying coins then concepts like grade-flation are relevant in that they have the potential to effect coin prices across the market. And whether you purchase coins as an investment or solely as a hobby then I think that fluctuations in prices is relevant to anyone that spends their money on coins.

I don't know as I totally agree with that, and certainly not as a sustainable part of the grading process. The value of a coin based on the grade of a TPG is so arbitrary, trendy, faddish, that it will be totally unsustainable in the long run. At some point, especially in the modern issue coin market, common sense is going to take over. To say a coin is worth $1500 in MS70 because PCGS has a POP of 4, without taking into account the POP of NGC, ANACS, ICG, PCI ....... just because of a general concensus, an arbitrary and capricious general concensus, that PCGS is the best, is beyond ludicrous.

Add into that, the fact that this exact same coin, a coin seemingly flawed, in MS69 is only worth $35. Of course, the TPG's never offer forth, exactly what this indiscernible flaw, that causes the value to drop $1450, is. Add into that, the majority of coins are not submitted at all, so trying to price according to POP, a POP report that is only a small sampling of the coins at large, is idiocy. Grading coins on a scale has been around for a 100 years, this will be around for another 100 years. Value based on an understanding of pricing based on TPG grade and TPG POP is a folly fraught with trends, fads, flippers, get rich quickers, pseudo-investors and part time hobbyists. Certainly not a sustainable trend in numismatics.

denco7- well said, sir. Well said. I completely concur with your assessment. As far as TPGs go, I value them for authentication purposes. I honestly don't really care all that much about grades anyway. To me, eye appeal triumphs over grade any day.

The value of a coin based on just a combination of the suggested genuine standing of the coin by a known & trusted resource coupled with its known/guesstimated SURVIVAL rate <note I do not say pop count)and current selling/trading trends are enough to allow the (aspiring and known) numismatists to judge the value of the coin. The rest is for the birds/investors who are not interested in getting to a certain education level.

I don't need CAC to tell me what a PQ in the grade looks like

I don't need a TPG to dictate market based on their price guide versus a moving average that can be found with some research

I DO need the CCF because these are the only people who I trust

Similar to how there are more 1921 Morgan Chapman proofs that have been graded by PCGS AND NGC than what are thought to even exist. (PCGS at 39, NGC at 49) when there are thought to be a dozen or two known by most accounts, or "40" by PCGS's mintage statistics.

Which goes to show you that not only if too many coins are over-graded, or an "unknown" about how many coins that exist are ungraded, that all can affect prices negatively, the converse that if the same **truly rare** coins are cracked out of holders and sent back in as fresh too many times searching for a higher grade, it will also negatively affect their prices as the population counts will over time show numbers of a magnitude higher than even exist in any grade (like the Chapman proofs).

What I like to do when I consider purchasing a certified coin is to check the price guide (NGC or PCGS) and then compare that price with completed ebay auctions of the same coin in the same grade. I will also check past Heritage and Great Collections auctions. Just doing this gives me a good overall impression of what I should pay for said coin. Of course, if there are several of the same coin in the same grade available I will always go for the one that has the best eye appeal. I will even go with said coin in a lower grade if the eye appeal is more appealing than on a higher grade coin. It's fun doing this kind of research when looking to buy.

Ain't that the truth!