Issuance Schedule For New Banknote Series In Norway

Neighboring Sweden diminished it's stock of circulating banknotes by -18.2% in value in the first 9 months of this year. In the last two months it actually went up by +0.5% with the new 100kr and 500kr banknotes. During December most governments put more banknotes into circulation for the Holidays. Barring no economic upheavel, I think Sweden will continue to diminish their stock in 2017.

I am assuming that Norway will follow Sweden's lead when it begins issuing the new banknotes.





The decision to replace the 1000NOK banknote last may imply that the country is open to simply not producing the note.

This should be interesting for PacoMartin (if he hasn't already read it):

http://www.norges-bank.no/en/Publis...-04-25-dnva/

Here is a quick comparison of millions of banknotes between Sweden, Norway, and Denmark in circulation Only new banknotes are counted for Sweden. Keep in mind that Sweden has nearly double the population of Norway and Denmark.

Norway and Denmark have a coin for the 20kr denomination, while Sweden maintains a banknote.

SEK	:	Denom	:	NOK	:	DKK
52.0	:	20 kr	:	88.8	:	127.3
21.0	:	50 kr	:	22.3	:	25.1
29.2	:	100 kr	:	21.7	:	46.3
36.0	:	200 kr	:	29.8	:	31.8
51.2	:	500 kr	:	36.9	:	34.6
3.5	:	1000 kr	:	17.0	:	34.8

The glaring difference is that Sweden has much less cash in circulation per capita than Norway and Denmark and in particular almost no 1000kr banknotes.

Do you think all three countries will introduce digital currency within the next two years? Or do you think Norway and Denmark will wait until their is a reduction in banknotes? Norway may wait until the new banknotes are introduced. There is speculation that Norway may not introduce a new 1000kr banknote.

The other possibility is that their will be a backlash from commercial banks which will stop any efforts by the central banks from issuing a digital currency.

Any thoughts?

https://www.norges-bank.no/en/publi...ess-release/
NORGES BANK INTRODUCES NEW 100- AND 200-KRONE BANKNOTES
The first two denominations in Norway's new banknote series will be put into circulation 30 May 2017.
The 50-krone and 500-krone banknotes will follow one year later at the earliest. The 1000-krone banknote will be issued last. The plan is to issue the 1000-krone banknote in the course of autumn 2019.

15.6 million 1000-krone zero ordered
35.4 million 500-krone zero ordered
29.2 million 200-krone 82.480 million ordered
21.6 million 100-krone 67.200 million ordered
22.4 million 50-krone 51.340 million ordered
124.2 million Total 201.020 million ordered

Norges Bank's Printing Works was closed down on 30 June 2007.
https://www.norges-bank.no/en/Publi...-production/

I can only guess as to the strange total numbers. In the USA production runs are always even multiples of
640,000. For instance the December 2017 run of $100 banknotes was for the total quantities indicated
Boston A 60*640,000
New York B 40*640,000
Cleveland D 50*640,000

It looks to be about a ten year supply of 100kr and 200kr banknotes. Presumably this year's order will be for the 50kr and 500kr denominations.

Sweden keeps their production statistics a state secret. The Riksbank is circulating about 3.4 million 1000kr banknotes. The total number is ridiculously small and it seems stupid that they didn't just eliminate the denomination. However they may have tens of millions stashed away in case of some kind of emergency (like a solar coronal mass ejection) which would incapacitate the electronic transfer system.

Norway publishes their production orders, so it will be interesting to see how many 1000kr banknotes they print. Of course they may product 20 million and take three decades to distribute them. Or they could only produce one million of them.

Sweden is currently circulating 64 million 500kr banknotes, and has produced an unknown number. At their peak, Sweden was circulating 120 million 500kr banknotes in 2009.

Norway may try to out-do Sweden by only producing 35 million 500kr banknotes (one for one replacement of current circulation) and plan for a future when 200kr will be a large banknote.

Norway still hasn't published their new numbers yet, but a survey done by a researcher for the Bank for International Settlement looked at the growth in currency in circulation (CIC) compared to GDP growth for 42 countries for the decade 2006-2016.

Only Sweden and Norway dropped their CIC.

Growth in CIC | Country | Growth in GDP
-44% Sweden 22%
-2% Norway* -8%
20% Denmark 8%
27% Japan 9%
59% Canada 36%
76% New Zealand 54%
78% Switzerland 54%
79% Eurozone 7%
81% Australia 63%
84% U.K. -2%
87% U.S. 35%

89% Morocco 53%
110% Thailand 83%
135% South Africa 135%
148% Oman* 46%
170% Brazil 160%
178% Russia* 165%
180% Nigeria 179%
183% Colombia 74%
191% Kazakhstan 65%
198% Israel 79%
208% Kenya 173%
224% Mexico 85%
234% Chile 104%
243% Indonesia 240%
250% South Korea 69%
280% Iraq 140%
287% India 263%
318% Algeria 44%
329% Iceland 18%
350% Pakistan 107%
355% Ukraine -13%
359% Turkey 228%
362% Bolivia 195%
369% Egypt 213%
372% Afghanistan 166%
413% Myanmar 365%
441% Angola 114%
442% Mozambique 33%
522% DR Congo 145%
621% Sudan 167%
904% Argentina 135%

The smaller currencies are often better ranked by comparing the difference between CIC growth and GDP growth.

Norway is taking a long time to update their statistics on notes and coins. It was updated in February last year. The website states that "The figures are updated annually in January/February'.

Norway was circulating 35,378,000 five hundred NOK banknotes at the end of 2017 and they ordered 75,610,000 new ones. As each banknote probably circulates for a few years, that is a strong commitment to the denomination that will last for most of a decade,

Norway was circulating 14,013,000 thousand NOK banknotes at the end of 2018 and they haven't ordered any since Norges Bank's Printing Works was closed down on 30 June 2007. So the number in circulation has been dropping for over a decade.

I am curious as to how many they ordered for 2019 Iin the new series. If it is 14 million or less than they don't see much future for the denomination.

The 1000kr banknote worth 1000/2480=403 grams of gold has been part of Denmark, Norway, and Sweden's banknotes since the Scandinavian Monetary Union was dissolved during WWI. Circulation of this denomination has been dropping for years in all three countries and they all seem to be on the verge of ending the denomination in favor of 500kr banknote.

Sweden is circulating 3 million, Norway 14 million, and Denmark is circulating 26 million 1000kr banknotes. Iceland is a different story as they have suffered from severe inflation for most of their history and 10,000ISK~480DKK=734NOK (Iceland kr to Danish kr & Norwegian kr).

Thank you for that information, redlock. I never thought to look at the Norwegian version.

With only roughly 8,000NOK per inhabitant circulating in Norway, cash is obviously of minimal importance.

Ordering 24.4 million 1000NOK notes shows a strong intention to keep circulation at reasonable levels. Sweden is circulating 2.947 million thousand SEK notes for a population almost twice the size. Denmark is circulating 28 million 1000DKK banknotes, but they have not issued the new series of banknotes yet,

It does not look like Denmark, Sweden or Norway is planning on eliminating the 1000kr banknote in the near future.