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 Replies: 24 / Views: 2,740 |
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Moderator
 United States
189767 Posts |
quote:
Or put differently: in times of economic distress and uncertainty, people run up various assets in hopes to hedge their income.
Yup, I like your phrasing better!  |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
533 Posts |
quote:
I firmly believe that the drop, when it comes, will be in the 25-30% range, & will happen so quickly that the little guy will be unable to avoid it.
Unless this 'small guy' is doing a small stint in the bighouse for a couple weeks, or his local pawn shop will no longer buy his bullion there is no way he could get totally caught holding his gold for the entire drop. At current levels, a 25% drop would take a minimum of 3-4 days, and that assumes that gold drops the daily limit of $75/oz each day with absolutely no bounce. After the 30's daily trading limits were established to prevent the extreme drops that happened then. (not that a 25% drop in 3 days wouldn't be pretty darn extreme.) |
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
1130 Posts |
Thanks for the insight Kurt. I'm being careful not to put all my eggs in one basket. Been burned by the .com craze before and learned my hard lesson.
I do have a "sell trigger" for my gold and silver bullion. If price go higher beyond that, I'll just lick my chops and be satisfied with what I walked away with.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2335 Posts |
quote:
Unless this 'small guy' is doing a small stint in the bighouse for a couple weeks, or his local pawn shop will no longer buy his bullion there is no way he could get totally caught holding his gold for the entire drop. At current levels, a 25% drop would take a minimum of 3-4 days, and that assumes that gold drops the daily limit of $75/oz each day with absolutely no bounce. After the 30's daily trading limits were established to prevent the extreme drops that happened then. (not that a 25% drop in 3 days wouldn't be pretty darn extreme.)
I was not aware there were limits to how much the price of bullion could fluctuate in a day. Could you point me in the direction of the authority that regulates world wide gold prices? If the drop takes place over 3 days, or even a couple weeks, there will be plenty of little guys that won't believe the trend is downward until too late, or they will think they can sell on the "bounce". But hey, I've been wrong before & I'm sure I'll be wrong again. This could be one of those times. |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
5318 Posts |
I'm glad you guys took my comments as a cautionary note--and nothing more  Edited by KurtS
03/13/2008 8:25 pm
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New Member
United States
7 Posts |
Soon the gold value will out pace the collector value on stuff like this... Image:  15indians.jpg75.76 KB |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1571 Posts |
I have never worked the stock market, so I know nothng of the risks there. I did put quite a bit of money into short-term investments, (30 days), and was able to live off the interest after I had gone about 6 months. Each time one would mature, I would double the principaal, and go for anothr month. I started with$30,000 Pesos, and when the annual rate was dropped from 139.36/annum, I had 7 million in short term It was not a "sure thing", but it was a nice feeling to be a"millionaire", even if for only a luttle while!
Dick
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Valued Member
United States
60 Posts |
A few days ago silver was over 21/oz but only for a few hours in the early morning. Hasn't gotten that high again.
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
14454 Posts |
quote:
Soon the gold value will out pace the collector value on stuff like this...
Image: 15indians.jpg
75.76 KB
Anytime the price of the precious metals rises like it has recently collectors have the risk of losing collector coins forever because of people selling/melting the coins for their metal content |
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Valued Member
United States
66 Posts |
I sold some junk silver at my local coin shop today.I have sold the bulk of my junk silver at this point and whatever I come across in rolls now. I had a sell trigger like 1sikevo above. Its a smart thing like any other investment. anyway........ This rise in the price of metals is making people just flat out over the barn nuts. when you pull up to the store it looks like a old soviet bread store people lined up out the door. People selling everything from sentimental pieces to the jewelry right off their bodies. I stand there in line with my 3 rolls of silver halves in my pocket waiting and feeling guilty what I have is from circulation and I am listening to the people in line. I am hearing things like " golds going to 2-4000$". " Silver is going up to 200$". "the world is ending" " I need to buy gold now, I need to buy silver NOW". I talked to the owner when it was my turn ( there was never a line before and we would shoot the bull for hours) I told him that I don't come on weekends anymore because I know its worse then this. he said " thank you" he has had to hire 3 other guys to help with the crush. I enjoy this hobby but when the mint is selling in my opinion "crap" and making people think they will get rich quick it undermines the hobby. People lose money on a silver proof set and they turn their back after getting burned. I thought the 50 State Quarter program was good it got people into the hobby. but now there is so much crazyness its scary. I lost my train of thought. keep your emotions in check and read up on what you want to buy and invest in knowledge is power. and please dont buy gold when it hits 5000$ and ounce:) |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
5318 Posts |
"it looks like a old soviet bread store people lined up out the door."
Yep--I was at a dealer for a few hours, and same thing. He called his buddies and got a similar story--people lined up to sell their Au/Ag coins. I sold all my excess US last week.
Edited by KurtS
03/14/2008 11:55 pm
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Valued Member
United States
169 Posts |
I'm not sure if gold & silver have reached their peaks yet. I hear there may be another interest rate cut next week, and that will trigger another price rise. After that, the market will have to decide if the dollar is getting stronger, or not. I don't think we're looking at the end of our economic problems that are causing the metal price run up vs. the dollar.
Precious metals are not for the weak of heart. If you own these metals, you should know that the peak is approaching and will be followed by a BIG fall. Personally, I see silver running as high as $25, $30, or even $40 followed by a dramatic fall of up to 50%. You've got to keep your eye on the price DAILY, and be prepared to SELL SELL SELL, when the time comes.
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Valued Member
Canada
82 Posts |
silver's at 17.79 right now
gold's at 922.60
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Member
United States
3242 Posts |
When I buy gold it for the coin. I don't buy it to melt, so I don't care if it goes down or up to.
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
14454 Posts |
If the silver and gold prices keep falling the way it has the past 2 days (its $16.71 for silver and $910.30 for gold right now) I will start buying some more in the next day or so
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Posted 03/13/2008 5:54 pm
15indians.jpg
