The Highs And Lows Of Key Date Jefferson Nickel Hunting... 112 Boxes Worth!

The motivation is knowing that good stuff is out there, and finding the good stuff like the key dates, the silvers (I've found 85), the Buffalos (36), and Vs (2).... and of course, the hunt for that elusive 1950-D.

As for the old ones turning up in AU, I think the first one (the 1939-D) happened to be part of a large hoard of nickels which was stored for many years... 207 pre-60s in 94 rolls without a single silver coin tells me whomever dumped these coins was actively pulling the silver ones out without regard for rare/scarce dates (statistically, I should have found around 7 or 8 Silvers) as I also found a 1938-D, 1938-S, 1942-D, two 1949-Ss along with a 1936, a 1937, and a dateless Buffalo. Additionally, I found a good assortment of 60 or so BU coins from that batch starting from 1956 and going all the way through 1979, and several other assorted AU coins.

As for the AU 1938-S I just found, my money is on it being part of it being in someone's collection at one time. I believe it may have been in a PVC flip as there was an area of green stuff at the bottom of the obverse, and scattered on the reverse. It all came off with a soft cloth, by the way...




That was me 30 years ago. LOL.




Thank you, my friend. Looking forward to seeing your numbers and comparing them. I liked Biedercoins's question, and gave it my best answer above.

Wow John, you have WAY more patience then me....

Outstanding stats John77 ... truly appreciate you sharing them with us.

I'll provide below some comparison to my own CRH nickel finds ... I as well keep detailed stats and have shared occasional updates with the CCF on my set progress. You can find them with a forum search .... believe my most recent statistical update was at set completion (320,800 coins searched) ... if I did this correctly it is linked below:

http://goccf.com/t/198187

I'm now at 355,600 nickels searched ... and that has taken me 8+ years (started 2/25/2008) ... so your progress is like a meteor compared to my snail. LOL

Using your definition of the Jefferson key dates, I as well have found twelve total; as follows - 38-D (3), 38-S (1), 39-D (2), 39-S (4), 50-D (2).

So my key date Jefferson find rate (by your definition) is 1/29,633 coins. I do not recall nor do my records show any 'hoards' where multiples came from a few boxes in a row .... although I do heartily agree that there are long dry spells in between and the best recipe for success is to simply keep searching.

Note that the 1938-S is the only Jefferson keeping me from two complete CRH sets.

Be of good cheer that your 1950-D Jefferson will show up ... my two appeared at 99,200 coins searched and at 322,400 coins searched.

My definition of a key date CRH Jefferson is different than yours ... I include all 9 coins issued with annual mintage below 10 million.

So ... interested in your results for the other four; mine are 1949-S (8), 1950 (8), 1951-S (7) and 1955 (20).

By my definition, I have found 55 total key date Jefferson with an average find rate of 1/6,465 coins.

Interested as well about your find rate success with the true 'key date' as a modern CRH ... the 1943-D Jefferson nickel is today the most challenging coin to find for set completion.

If you believe in my statistical concepts of 'Predicted Find Rates' based on 'Circulation Obsolescence" (discussed in the prior CCF thread linked above) ... then the 1943-D Jefferson should be found today every 159,259 coins based on my most recent search data.

If my data is correct ... then you have likely found at least one 1943-D and at most two ... but no more than that.

Surprise me with the answer to that question!

I'm impressed by your CRH efforts in such a short time ... and extend to you my best wishes to continue the journey.

David

Some of you must have a very special type of focus ....

I could never search that many nickels. ...

Thanks, David!

I took a great interest when I stumbled upon your sheets not too long ago...

I've actually done a whole lot of extra tallying and analysis on my Spreadsheet since we last talked here... Being out on the West coast makes it much easier to find S mints, but also more difficult to find Philly coins... So my finds for the other four under 10 million minted are: 1949-S (13), 1950 (3), 1951-S (9), 1955 (1)... so by your definition, I have found 38 such coins. So I'm at 1 every 5,895 coins compared to your 1 per 6,547 coins.

I'm truly amazed at your 20 1955 Philly finds... I have only found two EVER in my life... tied with the 1939-D and 1943-D for that honor (I did find a 1950-D 30 years ago)...

And indeed I have found exactly one 1943-D nickel to date in these 9 months... In terms of my ratio found to mintage (far right column of my spreadsheet), it's my 6th hardest pull. Of my 15 hardest pulls relative to mintage, 11 of them are War Nickels, which should come as no surprise, as they've been pulled from circulation at about an 85% faster rate than regular coins based on my stats. My 5 hardest pulls among non-Wars in comparison to mintage are the 1950-D, 1955, 1939-D, 1950, and... DRUMROLL... the 2009-P! Yeah... those 2009-Ps... crazy, isn't it?

Thanks for the well-wishes... Nickels and Halves are easily the most fun for me... Cents and Dimes at times are fun, but it's much more sporadic with them... And Quarters are all but in "time out" right now. This is really the first chance I've had in about 25 years to really do more than just casual CRH, so I'm trying to take full advantage of the opportunity. Below is my spreadsheet/table... I do plan to work in some more obsolescence data over the next month and apply some formulas... I was originally a Math major in college, so this is fun stuff for me!

BTW, I did a little check, and our War Nickel find ratios are remarkably close... I find one every 2,635 coins, you find one every 2,766 coins. Buffalos are not too far off either. I've found one every 6,222 coins, you find them every 5,437 coins. Our V nickel find samples are probably too small to make a truly valid analysis... despite that, our ratios are within a standard deviation, I believe... you're at 1 every 80,200 coins, while I'm at 1 every 112,000 coins.

David, I went through my spreadsheets and got some Obsolescence Data to compare with yours... with mintage figures for 2016 through October included. Will post more as I work some more numbers...




My figures at 227,640 coins:

Overall 1938-1959 Jefferson circulation obsolescence is 81.991%.
Silver War 5¢: 97.231%
Shield nickel: ~99.988% (*estimated based on trends for other pre-1960 nickels since none found yet)
Liberty nickel: 99.899%
Buffalo nickel: 99.165%

With these estimates, there are roughly:
634,033,476 pre-60 Nickels left in circulation
24,091,082 War Nickels left in circulation
10,129,205 Buffalo nickels left in circulation
547,525 V nickels left in circulation
15,785 Shield nickels left in circulation

Based on my rough estimates, I should find a Shield nickel around every 936,724 coins... it literally would be a one in a million find almost!

Thanks, John... I'm having a blast doing it!

Thanks on the kind words. Yes, the 50-D is incredibly tough... I found one 30 years ago as a cashier at a fast good place, and that's the only one ever... As for the War Nickels, my table does have the breakdown of them in the third set of charts, and that number is 85. I find about 3 of them per every 4 boxes worth searched.