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 Replies: 53 / Views: 8,316 |
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Valued Member
United States
92 Posts |
I would have to guess far less. There are bound to be more collectors/hoarders/people who don't even know what the heck they have squirreled away than there are dealers with bins. I would think that the greater population lies with those folks than it does with dealers and I think it would be a stretch for even THAT group to have 10%. Just one guy's opinion, however....
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Valued Member
United States
188 Posts |
It really depends on the coin. There usually a historical story that goes along with each coin or key date that makes it rare. I found a 1773 Virginia Half Penny this summer. When I dug it out of the ground I really couldn't tell what it was, I knew it was Colonial but that was about it. After some serious cleaning (I Know, I know) I found out what it was. So I figured immediatley it would be rare. We come to find out that in Richmond during the Civil War they found an entire powder Keg full of these coins by the thousands. Col Cohen of Baltimore took them home to Baltimore and they were piecemealed out until one guy finally bought the remaining 2200. All in uncirculated and most red condition. So long story short my dug/cleaned example is pretty much worthless in a monetary sense, but that is why I like coins. The history and stories that go along with all of this is the great part.
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New Member
United States
13 Posts |
I metal detect for coins alot during summer months. Here is a example of the years of Indian Head cents I have found last year. You will be able to see a trend toward newer one I think. This of course may be due to the relative age of population in my state. Year and number of IH's found. I dont know if this is interesting to anybody or not but here it goes. 1882 1889 1890 x2 1894 1897 1898 x2 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1907 There are awful lot of coins in the ground. |
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Pillar of the Community
Spain
1361 Posts |
Quote:
It is kind of sad that so many get lost and melted. Not really, it makes our hobby even more interesting because a common coin can become scarce or maybe even rare someday. |
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Pillar of the Community
Spain
1361 Posts |
Like what JustCarl said nobody can know this. Formulas are useless because the only given number is the mintage of the coins. You will not be able to account all the coins in dealers/hoarders especially private collectors who wouldn't even tell you what coins they have. Plus the fact that foreign collectors like myself also have those coins. So it is next to impossible and no formulas will ever work for it. The only Math you can use is mintage less number of collectors but still it will not be an accurate answer.
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New Member
United States
17 Posts |
During World War 2 there was a large amount of IHC and Lincolns melted down for degaussing cables and shell casings. I have seen photos of rail road cars filled with the cents, collected during the scrap drives. The average tonnage carried by a railroad cars are around 63 to 67 tons, one photo showed 3 railroad cars filled with cents and using the lowest number of 63 tons, the 3 cars would have been carrying well over 55 million cents. |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
615 Posts |
Most of the coins will be melted. Let's assume silver goes to $50 an oz again. How many FDR dimes do you think are going to get melted? JFK 40% halves.... all the 1964 coinage ( I mean I think half of the junk silver rolls are 1964) How about all those AG-G common date Walkers and Mercuries ? Barbers? We know how people dislike them. That would make them worth 36.17 x face value at $50 an oz. Sure MS/AU examples would go up too, but not enough to make it not worth it to trade up. If you could trade a few G4 commons for MS 63....wouldn't you do it? MS 63 common dates are what $15 for common 1940 Mercury dimes and $40 for Walkers? I love the Walkers and Mercury dimes, but I mean there are enough common dates that melting the junker isn't going to hurt anything. The difference between looking at the AU/MS ones vs. junk ones.... Love the pretty ones! If silver goes to $50 an oz, then I am going to help them melt a lot of coins...and my collection is going to get a wonderful upgrade in the process! -SFWUSC |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
615 Posts |
IH are much more common in the later years than the earlier years.
-SWUSC
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Pillar of the Community
United States
581 Posts |
I guess something else to think about are mint and proof sets. Give or take, there's been 2-3 million minted each year for the past 30 years.
Some of these have been lost, buried and burned. But yet, they're all over the place - in fact, glut the place.
Now compare that to coins that have millions and millions of each year and mintmark made.
Sorry folks. We won't be running out of them anytime soon.
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
20753 Posts |
As I said this is a completely impossible to tell or even estimate quantities of any of our coins.
Recently on TV they showed a street somewhere where they covered it with billions and billions of cents. Can't remember what that was all about now.
However, stop and think of all the things that happen to coins.
They get put into coin collections. Probably 75% of collectors deny having coins at home due to safety purposes.
How many coins have been shipped overseas or just taken to Mexico, Canada, South America? What are they doing there?
How many coins are still sitting in boxes, bags, jars, cans in some farmers house?
How many coins are buried by someone to hide them and then lost?
How many coins are used for jewlery. Holed drilled, welded to tie tacks, ear rings, neclases, etc.
How many coins are melted down for the metal content.
How many are in wells where they were thrown there as if a wishing well?
How many are thrown in rivers, lakes, streams, Oceans. A previous US President started that one.
Ever place coins on a RR track?
Ever melted a coin in a chem class?
HOw many are in rolls in safe deposit boxes?
How many are in massive quantities in coin stores?
And just how many pennies are on the ground and no one except a kid will pick them up? Most people kick them.
When my Som was in Europe he told me he saw our coinage all over the place. Think those will come back or be counted somehow.
No, just way to many variables to even guesstamate an approximate possible amount.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3294 Posts |
My guess is between 0 and 100% of the original mintage
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
20753 Posts |
Quote:
My guess is between 0 and 100% of the original mintage
A very close estimate. |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3294 Posts |
Darn you are right, forgot to include the Chinese fakes.
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
2602 Posts |
I realize there are many many variables and we will never really know the answer to this question. I was just pondering the *possibility* that one could use mathematical modeling to provide a guesstimate, sort of like The Cent Project gave a snap shot of the kinds of Lincoln cents left in circulation.
Edited by mycrob
07/13/2009 1:47 pm
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
20753 Posts |
Quote:
I realize there are many many variables and we will never really know the answer to this question. I was just pondering the *possibility* that one could use mathematical modeling to provide a guesstimate, sort of like The Cent Project gave a snap shot of the kinds of Lincoln cents left in circulation.
Was just done for you. Quote:
My guess is between 0 and 100% of the original mintage |
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Replies: 53 / Views: 8,316 |
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Posted 01/27/2009 3:13 pm
