What's Considered Low Mintage For Modern Circulating Coins?

Maybe, but it wouldn't surprise me if coins haven't gone the way of the Dodo bird 100 years from now and most people don't even know what one is and won't have seen one

Interesting comment on the 1970 S small date.

Mintage has been irrelevant since people quit saving new coin in 1964. Before this everyone scrambled to find BU rolls of low mintage coins so something like the '50-D nickel was saved almost in its entirety.

Many of the post-1964 nickels are tougher in BU than the '50-D because they weren't saved. The few who do save later date coins often save the lower mintages so it's quite common for the high mintage coins to be much scarcer.

There are lots of collectors for the older coins but few people collect newer ones so the ones that are tougher often don't have much of a premium. Try finding dates like the '97-D if you don't believe it. This had a mintage of nearly half a billion but people neglected to save it. I wouldn't be surprised if it's scarcer than some Buffalo nickel rolls but who cares?

People are depending on the mint sets to satisfy demand but a lot of mint sets are gone now and the ones that are left often have tarnished coins.

Wow!

I doubt I've seen more than 250 '70-s cents in circulation and never found the sm dt.

If not for low sample sizes I'd suggest that most '70-S sm dt cents in circulation come from mint sets that are more than 10% sm dts.

Until about 1990 these mint sets were not picked over (largely because the sm dt wasn't worth much) and when they were cut up for the half dollar everything else went into circulation.

Since I posted that list over two years ago the new low mintage kings are the 2019 and 2020 W ATB Quarters at 2,000,000 each. And that is still pretty close to more coins available than there are collectors.

Great comments. I will just add a few more to answer the initial poster we have to consider 2 categories - NIFC and circulating coinage. Furthermore let us focus the NIFC coins on those based on circulating denominations (or at one time circulating).

This is based on mintage and then use

NIFC - Lincoln Cents - 2019 W Uncirculated Strike. Mintage about 346,000. But survival rate will be quite high for this although some may be less careful with it than their rev proof or proof strike. But they are wrong.

Lincoln cents - survival rate - honestly aside from the 2010 Shield debut cent, I would say any shield cent since then is on their way to becoming scarce in the future due to the many problems these coins have even in MS. And as sales of Uncirculated sets have been generally declining for over 20 years, the population of very fine MS examples will become fewer and fewer. Add in that registry set collectors tend to buy several of these sets but keep only a few or one with the rest going into circulation and you have a recipe for a series becoming scarce due to a poor survival rate outlook.

Jefferson nickels have been covered but I do want to emphasize that finding ultra-modern ones in excellent shape from circulation is difficult. I think collectors do pull some but not as in generations past. The coin collector base has transformed into a mix of bullion and numismatic collectors with the former outnumbering the latter sometimes.

Roosevelt dimes --- any of the early clad ones in great shape is nearly impossible. And due to their small size, finding one from a nice mint set without hairlines or discoloration from the cello packs is not as easy as it sounds. Of the NIFC coins --- the 1996 W, the coin that really started the US Mint on the whole W mint producing NIFC based on circulating coinage. The silver dimes are practically gone fir circulation but that is because these were one of the first denominations to be hoarded as silver price went up (and also safest as it was such a low denomination compared say to the half dollar).

Quarters - Yes the W Quarters of 2019 and 2020 although they will have a higher survival rate than most of recent circulating quarters but definitely lower than NIFCs. The S Business strike Quarters starting in 2012 have mintages that are half the W's but these are NIFCs and so have a much higher survival rate (although for NIFCs not as much as some others due to the market for them being a little soft).

However, I am surprised no one has ever noted just how low are the mintages of the 2011 ATB Quarters in comparison to the 2009, 2010 and 2012. Tell me when was the last time you came across a high grade 2011 ATB Quarter in circulation (2010's are also tough to find in high grade). You have to rely on the ignorance of inheritors or someone dumping into circulation excess to get these.

The early clad quarters are ignored --- part of the problem is the circulating coinage can be hard to differentiate from a SMS put into circulation for awhile. However, those Quarters (and in general all denominations except the half dollars) from 1965 - 1967 tend to be overlooked as collectors can get the SMS sets with the 40% silver Kennedys at an attractive price. For this reason I did purchase from ebay a 1965 Washington quarter that a collector got from a fresh roll and encapsulated. It won't make me rich but it has a decent future of accumulating numismatic value.

Kennedys ---- NIFC 1970 Proof and Mint sets. MS is lowest mintage one of the 40% silver so a key date. Again high survival rate but interestingly with some very low mintage special strikes issued for Kennedys over the past 8 years, it is overlooked by new collectors. As for circulating Kennedys, one or two have been mentioned in prior threads.

50,000 it is

2019 W circulation strike cent mintage 346,136
2019 W reverse proof cent mintage 412,509
2019 proof cent mintage 629,679

2020 W proof nickel 464,366
2020 W reverse proof 313,190

at least with the 2019 W circulation strike cent there's the hope people will pop them into albums and then they wind up circulating somehow and attrition happens.

of course near all of these are going to remain BU for the next forever.