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 Replies: 21 / Views: 3,800 |
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
5029 Posts |
Wow that is a great pick. Beautiful coins  |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
8715 Posts |
Wow - fantastic finds!  |
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Bedrock of the Community
Canada
24885 Posts |
Nice coins! Edited by Dorado
09/26/2018 12:35 pm
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Moderator
United States
189301 Posts |
Nice pair! |
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
4883 Posts |
Quote:
That's a BEAUTIFUL Reverse of '78 and a very pricey Morgan in that grade. The Prooflike '79-S on the left is also a stunner. Let me say first I'm not soliciting opinions as to condition. My quickie photos here aren't sufficient for that purpose in any event. That said, I'm pretty confident in my ability to evaluate Morgans as to grade. I critically examined each of these today both in sunlight and my "grading" desk lamp. There remains no doubt that both are uncirculated with original surfaces and no significant nicks or dings. The Reverse of '78 one has just enough light chatter and superficial scuffing on the obverse for me to assign it a floor of MS63. The one with the DMPL reverse is slightly better in this regard, and I'd call it at a solid MS64. I doubt either would receive a PL annotation, but as I said before both obverses (plus the reverse of the Reverse of '78) are at least semi-prooflike, and thus present extremely well. Frankly, I've seen notably worse than these recently slabbed by both NGC and PCGS as MS64, which I attribute to a current bias in favor of "market" over "technical" grading. Taking that reality into consideration, I really wouldn't be surprised if either of these had a "  " or a "  " tacked onto the grades I'm seeing them as a surefire bet for, or if they even might get bumped up a whole point, were I to submit them for certification. Colligo ergo sum
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4883 Posts |
I have a couple last things to add here, both questions, actually.
1879-S production is recorded as totaling 9,110,000. With regards to those struck with the Reverse of 1878, there seems to be little consensus on what proportion of that total they constituted. I've seen estimates ranging all the way from fifty to several hundred thousand, and even a million. The certified population suggests something like 4% (roughly 350 to 400 thousand) but that's not the most precise way to come up with a true figure, since the Reverse of 1878 could arguably be considerably more likely to be submitted, or it may reflect a differential in one type over the other surviving the Treasury wartime melts. Does anybody have a sense of what the reality was, or is this going to be one of those perpetually unresolved Morgan mysteries?
Also, lore has it that there were three bags of them found in the Redfield hoard, and that most extant examples today came from that source. Legend or fact?
Colligo ergo sum
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Rest in Peace
United States
10625 Posts |
I think I read that the 3 bags from the Redfield Hoard account for most of the known uncirculated examples. Who knows if there's another bag or more hidden somewhere.  |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4883 Posts |
With respect to the quantity struck with the Reverse of 1878 -
It occurred to me that one way a reasonable estimate might be made would be to see how many of those reverse dies were used, assuming that under close scrutiny they're distinguishable from one another. If you could then determine a lifespan for each, then its a matter of simple multiplication to come up with a total. My source materials in this regard are not up to date, but as I understand it there's a version with a small "III S" mint mark, another with the same mint mark but with a small defect in the "r" in "trust" (which might be only a deterioration of that first die), yet another with the mint mark tilted slightly left, and finally another with a doubled mint mark (which could be a restamp of a die already in use). That'd be at least two and maybe four different dies right there, the exact number perhaps being possible to sort out. Maybe additional distinct dies can be identified. The question would then be reduced to how many coins were produced with a particular die before it would've been switched out for a new one? This last figure might be somewhat variable, but an average would still allow for a sum to be easily calculated.
Colligo ergo sum
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4883 Posts |
Since nobody has yet opined on how many of the 1870-S Reverse of 1878 might have been struck, I've continued to cogitate on the question.
I left off last with the unknown factor in the equation, that being how many coins might have been struck with a single set of dies. There're actually some clues to the answer if you look at the lower mintage issues in the history of Morgan production.
The 100,000 of the 1893-S were struck with a single set of dies. Ditto for the 110,000 made at Philadelphia for 1894. The 333,000 of the 1899 appear to have used up three distinct die pairs. So 110,000 wouldn't seem unreasonable for the life span of a die.
What makes that number less than definitive is that practices could obviously vary from year to year and/or mint to mint. There are two identifiable die pairs for the 1889-CC of which 350,000 were made, and three die pairs for the 1895-S and 1895-O of which 400,000 and 450,000 were churned out, respectively. Those three issues suggest that die life might be extended out to something on the order of 133,000 to 175,000 coins. On the other hand, at least five die pairs were used in putting out the 389,000 of the 1893, and three die pairs apparently were consumed in making the 228,000 1885-CC's. That works out to only 75 to 80,000 coins per die pair.
The only conclusion I can draw from all this is that the low end estimates (merely several tens of thousands) for how many 1879-S Reverse of 1878's were struck looks to be wishful thinking and not defensible. A number more like a quarter up to a half million would seem more probable, which actually isn't out of line with the estimate I made above based upon the relative populations of certified specimens.
Colligo ergo sum
Edited by Lucky Cuss
10/01/2018 7:25 pm
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Bedrock of the Community
 United States
12477 Posts |
I couldn't help any, but this has been nice to read.  In Memory of Crazyb0 12-26-1951 to 7-27-2020
In Memory of Tootallious 3-31-1964 to 4-15-2020
In Memory of T-BOP 10-12-1949 to 1-19-2024
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4883 Posts |
This PCGS webpage on the 1879-S Reverse of 1878 (aka: Second Reverse) is worth taking the time to read. I hadn't seen it before today, and it contradicts my analysis, maintaining that an older estimate of 120,000 struck might in fact be too high. It also contains interesting information regarding those of these that came from the Redfield hoard. See: https://www.PCGS.com/books/silver-d...ngs-030.aspxColligo ergo sum
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4883 Posts |
I continue to research this variety, particularly with respect to estimates as to mintage, without success. Here's NGC's webpage, which compares poorly with PCGS's. It boldly states that a "small number" were struck, which is hardly helpful. It's at least useful for its breakdown of NGC's certified population. In the auction results section, I note that a PCGS MS61 specimen sold for $70 17 years ago. That would seem to have been a pretty good investment, particularly since one could speculate that if it were cracked out and resubmitted, with today's looser, "market" grading standards, it might well come back as a 62 or even a 63. See: https://www.NGCcoin.com/coin-explor...coinid-77206Colligo ergo sum
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4883 Posts |
I'm reviving this topic because on Rick Tomaska's Saturday evening television show, he was offering some 1879-S Reverse of 1878's. In his presentation, he averred that less than 100,000 were produced and that Michael "Miles" Standish concurred with this estimate. He went on to say that he personally thought that between 50,000 and 75,000 might be a realistic figure.
More concretely, he divulged that his group of 35 were recovered from two original 1879-S mint bags he'd acquired. Now 35 out of 2,000 works out to 1.75%. If that rate was for the sake of argument taken to be representative and then applied to the total 1879-S mintage, that would yield a quantity of 159,425 of the Reverse of 1878 being struck.
Just additional opinions and another imprecise calculation to muddy the waters even further....
Colligo ergo sum
Edited by Lucky Cuss
03/03/2019 12:41 am
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Pillar of the Community
United States
705 Posts |
Just came across this. Nice pick ups |
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
20753 Posts |
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Replies: 21 / Views: 3,800 |
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First Page
Posted 09/26/2018 11:25 am
