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Valued Member
Korea, Republic Of
489 Posts |
Quote:
what drives wedge resistance on either end? It looks like a true rebound out of these floor drops may not happen for a while; any time frame estimate? Perhaps it is a good time to buy a bit of either/both during the low? Well first, algorithmic trading runs the markets. If there any patterns in the chart, rest assured it has to do with computers. But, folks buy low and sell high. Each bound that it makes, folks aren't willing to ride it up as high. So, you get the same bottom price but the top price will widdle down to a fine point and break out up or down. Looking at the chart, this could take six months or a year, but who knows. The 200D/50D MACD are the 200-day and 50-day moving averages. Quote:
As others have said the market is manipulated. Supply and demand have little effect on the price. Also this. Old-timer, traditionalist thinking buyers/sellers of gold/silver will argue against this all day. The truth is, nothing traditional matters any more. The trading style on the markets change with the times. Silver and gold act just like stocks now. They are measured, analyzed, and played like anything else. Edited by Lembafc
01/27/2021 06:59 am
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1590 Posts |
I'm not sure what is meant when it is said "Market price and spot price are not the same".
I'm a dealer. I have been for decades. Our buy/sell price uses spot for it's basis. When we sell to the refiner spot is also the basis. When I was actively working as an Engineer, our materials cost was always based on spot.
Perhaps I'm not quite understanding your point?
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
5192 Posts |
Spot price is only a reference point. If the market is strong or on fire, any clever dealer in physical will immediately raise the "premium" to protect inventory.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1590 Posts |
NumisEd, if you are a reputable dealer you will have a buying policy that your customers can rely on. Our customers know we buy at 12 times face, currently. They also know that we sell at 30 percent over spot. People also lock in prices over the phone that are good for that day.
You don't really change your price structure when the market is on the way up. You might if it is on the way down. Lower buy prices but your selling is still the same. For every day like today when it went up like a rocket, you have others where it goes down like a rock.
Most of us who survived the shenanigans of 10 years ago, know how to cost average. Though I do know a few dealers who have inventory they won't sell right now because of the price they bought it 10 years ago! Which I feel is completely ridiculas!
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Valued Member
United States
314 Posts |
Any market manipulation is small and inconsequential. Besides, how is it if it's in my direction, I'm an astute investor and if it's against me, it's all rigged. If you are trying to make the most of your investment dollar, you will always pay attention to the spot price. It is your reference point every time you buy something and every time you sell something. How else would you recognize value or what is grossly overvalued? Whether you are buying from ebay, craigslist, the LCS or estate sales, etc. you are always calculating how much over or under spot you are paying. Only then will you be able to recognize "Oh, that's a good buy!" or "That really has a lot of premium, but I still want it!" And you'll also recognize when something is impossibly low. Then it's either your lucky day or they are fake. |
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Valued Member
 United States
143 Posts |
Hi again, Thanks for the lively discussion. Glad to see multiple takes on how the market tends. I didn't think I'd be able to see "good deal/poor deal" at a glance, but I'm starting to see it, based off spot and similar weights. Glad to be holding real assets, even if they are manipulated  |
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Valued Member
United States
314 Posts |
There are websites that have all the pm values of pre-1964 US silver coins versus the current spot price. So for example, the silver content of a Morgan dollar is about $20. Anything in the wild at well over $20 is not such a good buy. Anything in the teens is worth a second look. Looks like the 50/200 day moving averages on gold are resolving to the downside  . It spent so much time here that hopefully a lot of energy has been dissipated and the downside will be limited. Bad sign: That was a pretty good cover story about the silver squeeze and bullion shortages so that might have be it for a while. |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1590 Posts |
Glennmorenee....I don't see how you can say that market manipultation is small and inconsequential.
The current rapid rise in spot is exactly that, market manipulation. It was shown many many years ago that large commercial banks like Chase and some individuals, such as Warren Buffet could manipulate the market at will.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4333 Posts |
Quote:
The current rapid rise in spot is exactly that, market manipulation. It was shown many many years ago that large commercial banks like Chase and some individuals, such as Warren Buffet could manipulate the market at will. They don't even try to cover it up anymore. Pay a small fine (billions) and on to the next. When I listen to LED ZEPPELIN...so do my neighbors...
Roll hunting since '77
Dirt fishing since '72
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Pillar of the Community
United States
5837 Posts |
So anyone think silver will get back in the $30 range in a few weeks time frame?
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Pillar of the Community
Australia
1333 Posts |
i think so but not going to bet (dont have any paper position on this) on it there a good chance (still buying ain't selling much, if going much higher and depending on how it gets there maybe sell), however I dont have the inside scoop that would mainly depend on how the big market makers want to push it. As we all know they can short what ever quantities they want so really its the banks reference price.
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Bedrock of the Community
Australia
21788 Posts |
Are you a long term or a long term or a short term silver investor, a speculator, or a gambler?
I suspect that most here in the CCF are silver stackers which makes them long term physical silver investors. That being the case, your investment horizon is long term perhaps 5 years or more.
If that is the case, have a good look at the trend line for the 10 year silver price chart, or draw your own best fit smoothed line over the graph.
If you are a long term silver stacker it is probably the best to look at the 20 year price chart. From this chart, the current price of silver based on a 20 year history, should be around $20, IMO.
If you are a short term profit taker, and looking at the 20 year price history chart, sometime soon would be good period to sell. If you are a long termer, wishing to keep for at least another 3 or 4 years, you are probably better off keeping your silver, and just be content to let the future work it out for itself.
That is what I am going to do, but as I have said in an earlier post, I don't really care about whatever the future silver price may be, as I am in profit at anywhere above $9 per ounce.
Edited by sel_69l
02/09/2021 05:10 am
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Valued Member
United States
143 Posts |
"I'm at profit anything over $9 per ounce." Feels good I'm definitely a long-term stacker - most of the joy is just quietly accumulating a little of anything for cheap. I'm hopeful that it hits 30/oz, but it looks like the humdrum is dying back down. Regardless, sitting on the stack is always a nice option to continue! |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
533 Posts |
I could sell when the price goes over $30 but then what? Put the money into cash and watch it go down with inflation over the years? I keep a few $K in cash around but over that it isn't worth it. So silver is essentially my long term storage of cash that stays off the books and out of site of prying eyes. As long as spot stays steady with inflation I am happy and anything over that is a bonus. Silver isn't so much of an investment as a cash reserve for me.
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Pillar of the Community
Australia
1333 Posts |
Sel_69l wow $9 an ounce that, sadly I think that's only been true for me very early years.
not sure if you'll would want some deeper analysis from me but I can see a Bullish flag appeared (XAGAUD) and a false breakout from that flag, watching in the short term, building for the long term :D.
Its starting to get more interesting.
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Posted 01/28/2021 2:15 pm
