Survival Rate Of 1909-S VDB Cents (And Other Coins)

Over 14 years ago I developed a data driven post speaking to the topic of 'Circulation Obsolescence' - which is the general idea we are speaking about here where a coins availability slowly decreases when in circulation.

My data is based on Jefferson nickels, but the same logic I believe applies to all circulating coins.

Read about it here:

https://www.coincommunity.com/forum...PIC_ID=58454

Nickelsearcher I can follow your math does make sense but I believe the War Nickels may be miss leading because of silver content. Many people hang on to these low grade nickels for there silver but never have them graded for obvious reasons. It is great to have people like you doing this kind of research it does help with an overall understanding of this subject. Thanks for your work in this area.

Something I've noticed over recent years when going through dealers' junk boxes in the UK is that circulated 'semi-key-date' coins, such as 1922 and 1949 pennies and 1961 and 1965 Scottish shillings, seem to be very common, sometimes you pull out more of them than you do common dates. I imagine that these coins were pulled from circulation in vast numbers by change-checkers in the 1960s and 1970s in the run-up to Decimalization. As these coins have never really increased in value (except in Mint State), those collectors who hoarded them have disposed of them in bulk to dealers, or maybe the kids or grandchildren of the original hoarders have found them in a drawer when clearing a house and taken them to the nearest coin shop. I imagine a far higher percentage of 1961 and 1965 Scottish shillings, for instance, survive than common dates such as 1963 which probably mostly ended up in the melting pot.

\I'm referring to culls. Perhaps like those ten burned coins.

Most '09-S VDB"s were removed from circulation before they were extremely worn lowering their attrition but preventing the existence of lots of AG's today. This also serves to lower the spread in price across all grades. But all coins are susceptible to various types of mutilation.

Morgans Dad; While I was reading this post, I also was thinking the same thing. You are (I think) spot on! I know that I myself have never sent any of my coins in for 'professional' grading, and I know that I'm not alone. I'm taking a rough guess and believe that around 90% of coins NEVER get graded, which makes them theoretically 'lost'.

It amuses me when I watch the TV coin dealers advertise how "rare" their coins are by stating that only 'x' amount are left, or are a specific grade, and then show the population report from ONE company. What garbage!

Anyways, it's my opinion that of the 484,000 VDB-s cents originally minted and issued, around 250,000, if not more, still remain.

In the old days, and still, most movement of coins is just 10 or 20 miles at a time. They move in a random walk and disperse from their points of origin. Before airlines there were trains that helped spread some to the farthest reaches before they were all the way down to VF or XF.

My only point was that by the time a coin is worn down to AG or Poor it could be almost anywhere.

Even today it can be hard to get a Denver issue above AU on the east coast. As coins travel they wear and until there are enough in circulation you are unlikely to find one.

I do think that many more are still out there by grandma/grandpa and even horders who do not search and grade. We greatly over amplify that people are actively willing to pay to join a grading service, have knowledge of the value of such coin, and have time to look through cents and then take time to send them in. Most people I know have large amounts of change without a thought to search through them, grade them etc. At most they might want to clean out someday like a death or move but those would likely end up at a coinstar or bank rather than being searched and graded. Some who know value still don't grade until they are ready to sell, and a few here never even wish to sell regardless of value apparently.

On the other side yes its a very well known coin with value and more people are searching then ever, so I wouldnt think there are drastic amounts sitting out there in high grade not found. Also many are probably sitting in safe deposits, jars, coin albums, or ungraded because they are in low grade and people just don't know even in that grade this particular coin has some value or have the time to even look. So many people here post they got a collection and have no idea about them. Also If you go to most coin shows or shops they are there so I wouldnt think it to be rare either except finding old coins in change is indeed getting unusual to see as people are at least searching those more for known value.

Otherwise they are at least durable goods and not zinc cents so they should still exist in some form, its just not yet known how many go ungraded or sitting around above the known graded ones and how many more in better grade might also still be around.