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 Replies: 71 / Views: 6,020 |
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Bedrock of the Community
Australia
21786 Posts |
I have about 14 kilograms of silver in numismatic items.
Taken a lifetime to build such a collection.
Almost all of it has at least some numismatic premium,
but
with more than 50% of the coins, the numismatic premiums are multiples of their silver value.
Have only a dozen or so coins that would have silver value only, in most cases due to their poor condition.
Same applies to almost all of the gold in my collection, and all of copper and bronze.
Pretty much the same for most non bullion / stackers accumulators.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2836 Posts |
Just wanted to revisit this one, appears silver has broken out.... $SLV = 52 week highs
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
5177 Posts |
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Just wanted to revisit this one, appears silver has broken out.... $SLV = 52 week highs There goes my hope of buying a cheap 2020 proof silver quarters set...   |
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Moderator
 United States
95324 Posts |
Yep, and my hope of buying a Green monster box of ASE's too |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2049 Posts |
Quote:
When you hear something like this:
"There is a guy on YouTube named Bix Weir who has spent many years studying silver and why the price has been held down for over a century."
your only response should be, "Really?" Ironically, when I see a response like yours, my first thought is "really?" |
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Valued Member
United States
136 Posts |
With silver just like gold you need to be careful and assess where you really sit.
For example, are you someone that follows the market day in day out? If so you might be able to range trade it successfully.
However, if you rarely look at it, you really should never chase a big move higher.
The best time to buy silver and gold is when absolutely no one wants it... a number of people have made sensible comments such as buying below 20 due to the average really not being that high.
Silver even more than gold is subject to some extreme moves because it IS used industrially and that means that sometimes even when it is far above where it should be, those that need it industrially MUST still buy it and can keep the market artificially high.
This happened in early 2011 and so many even professional traders got squeezed out of shorts. It made a LOT of sense to sell silver at around 40 dollars, but believe me when it got there people who went short were sometimes destroyed in hours... I was even lifted at some completely ridiculous prints on the OTC toy (the machines we used to trade between banks) when stuff really became nasty because some people just HAD to get out.
What is true with silver is once it is on its way down from a very nasty move higher it will take a LONG time to bottom out - much longer than you expect.
Having said all that, we are now in a period of very high inflationary pressure simply due to the money supply that has gone into the system. If you want to adjust the price of silver with the money supply just take the ratio to the number of trillions in money supply and it will give you some idea of where the "fair" inflation adjusted price of silver is. e.g. today M2 is just under 21 trillion. In 2011 when silver went over 50 M2 was just 9 trillion so 50 dollars THEN was like 117 dollars an ounce today adjusting for the increase in money supply.
Now back in 1980 when the Hunt's cornered the silver market it hit just under 50 dollars ... at that time M2 was 1.5 trillion which would make the price 530 + dollars per oz adjusted for money supply. It shows just how out of whack the market went at that time.
Overall this means that whilst current prices are probably not a good entry point, it is worth noting that we probably won't see say 15 dollars an ounce maybe ever again - never say never but money supply increases have been so high that its very difficult to see that happening.
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Valued Member
United States
136 Posts |
For kbpll:
In 2011 the big issue was that there were a bunch of industrial players out of countries like China that needed to buy silver and could not wait.
In addition, A LOT of hedge funds had shorted silver as it was going up and got taken out of their stops at the same time. This also applies to some of the silver suppliers who had placed leveraged "hedges" on silver basically selling high strike options in much larger size than they could produce silver in and so THEY got stuck short silver.
Derivatives unfortunately have the ability to make risk appear all of a sudden because leveraged option sells act as attractors to the silver spot when you get close to them.
I was trading the market at the time and it was a lot of stress for about 3 weeks where the daily moves were sometimes 20 dollars in a few hours - and you won't see those prints in the long term chart data because that data usually has the hourly data removed that far out .
The silver market is not ultra liquid at the best of times but the confluence of derivatives and the industrial players demanding supply and being willing to pay almost anything for it made those few weeks extreme.
And no it was nothing to do with the debt ceiling or anything else that was geopolitical - this was specific to silver .
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2836 Posts |
$SLV, just breaking out, currently at over 10+year highs.... $50 on the way again?!?!
Edited by coin rejector
05/20/2024 3:30 pm
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Pillar of the Community
United States
5177 Posts |
Perhaps I mentioned this before, but people should be careful about what they wish for.
Cheering a higher and higher silver price is all fine and dandy, but at a certain point it becomes too expensive for the average collector. Remember: people's paychecks are not going up by double digits every year.
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Moderator
United States
187950 Posts |
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Perhaps I mentioned this before, but people should be careful about what they wish for...  Especially if you are one of many here expressing disdain for how expensive US Mint silver products have become over the past few years.  |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2836 Posts |
Read yesterday, Gene Munster (stock market analyst) suggest the stock markets bull run could last another 5 years before bursting the AI bubble. What could that mean for the price of silver? Pulled up a couple charts (10y & a 5y) of the SLV to compare vs. other market indexes. SLV outperformed the SPY & DIA but trailed the QQQ, but not much over the last 5 years. If the SLV price continues on the same course, (IMO) we could easily be looking at another $50 pps scenario, possibly much higher.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1763 Posts |
Hilltower Resource Advisors CEO and chief market strategist Tracy Shuchart was on Charles Payne's show yesterday and suggested that silver could be $50 -$60 in the coming years. She said the World Silver Institute is reporting that this year there will be a 265-million-ton deficit this year which is 2X what it was last year. You can find the interview at, https://www.foxbusiness.com/shows/m...harles-payne. |
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Valued Member
Canada
128 Posts |
The spread between physical and paper says it all I think.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
6481 Posts |
Not a bullion speculator, but I'm curious if anyone has changed their thinking as silver touches $30/ounce.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4333 Posts |
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Not a bullion speculator, but I'm curious if anyone has changed their thinking as silver touches $30/ounce. Just a bit past a month ago, silver was over $32. It's now into the $26 range. I'm expecting $22 again, my buy point. I've been able to buy at $22 spot for every year the last ten. When I listen to LED ZEPPELIN...so do my neighbors...
Roll hunting since '77
Dirt fishing since '72
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Replies: 71 / Views: 6,020 |
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Posted 04/03/2024 12:07 pm
