The Psychology Of Silver Prices And Numismatic Premium

When I buy a coin, I want it for the numismatic or aesthetic value. I don't want to be forced into becoming a silver speculator. I definitely don't want to suffer sudden, unexpected declines in the coin's market value based on commodity market gyrations.

Quite frankly, if the metal value is currently more than what I would spend to own the numismatic interesting part, that's a non-starter unless it's a super cool coin.

The blend of how everyone feels and how it manifests is called "the market." Sometime the herd heads one way, sometimes they scatter in all directions and other times they fall down drunk. People try to measure what the herd does, but what the heck are they measuring anyway?

I always thought that if I was around coins, I would hear the sound of coins, but you never hear any of that at shows, coin clubs or anywhere where there are collectors. We are careful that coins aren't banging against one another.

Yes, I am drinking a glass of wine and not my first tonight.

Numismatic premiums are going away on all but the scarcest items. The last 90% buy from my local guy included BU Franklins, proof dimes, quarters and halves at spot price. They are breaking up silver proof sets as there are few buyers for those now.

Another person that doesn't want to become a silver speculator. I think I might start collecting higher grade and rarer date Morgans. They seem to be a good value now compared to some other series. Either that or go into gold.

My pleasure! Always nice to have a people come back.

This is a great thread!

I haven't posted much on the forum over the past year; this is partly because I was buying 90% in Rome in volume and bringing it to the u.s. a few times a year and trading for more 'interesting' metal. I stopped posting my buys because they became more mathematic and less numismatic . I have a different perspective because I dealt in two markets - Rome, Italy and the U.S.

I had a large stock of semi-numis stuff (AU Morgan, etc.) and piles of short-long term 90%. I've sold through nearly everything now and noticed a few things.

1) Morgan dollars were €30 here when silver was $20-25; when silver broke $40, Morgan's were 20% below melt... They stayed around €30. There was almost no correlation; except the coins became bullion in the eyes of sellers and buyers relatively quickly. Now, with silver at $90+, Morgan's are €60. I'll see where it goes but I'm not buying.

2) culled 19th European coins were selling for melt +/- 5% for 3-5 years. They weren't always an easy sell. I had to routinely contact past buyers and regular customers when I'd get a stack in a collection. Now, I get messages from past buyers asking what I have and if they can buy it. There's almost none of this around; I know piles of it were melted, but I'm hard pressed to find a single french or Belgian 5 franc (I had rolls of these for a while and every collection had loads)

3) sovereigns are the workhorse of European gold - in my experience;these were melted by the sack. I bought wholesale silver from a few dealers and they would show me their melt piles. I don't think there's a sovereign with a pre-charles king left! And Elizabeth s were melted by the kilo.

4) u.s. silver is nearly non existent. And, the coins I see I'm not buying. I don't know if it's a bubble or if it will go up/down/sideways but €24 '64 Kennedy halves just don't make sense in my mind when I was paying €7-8. I suspect there will be melts; material isn't sitting on shelves very long. It's moving somewhere and I don't thinks it's leaving shops at retail.

5)what I'm finding now ... Are odd weight European commemoratives, scrap (pocket watch cases), .800 religious medals, etc.

6) a lot more ancient (late Roman and byzantine) and medieval good has popped out of collections. I'm not interested in these because it seems like a new barrel of buried coins is found every week in Europe.

Anything decent isn't out for sale - either in a long stack, melted, or somewhere else.

Just some rambling.

Thank you for sharing. I am seeing some of the same in this corner of Europe. Silver medals started going to melt also. Nice medals. Not only the bad ones.

The big meltdown is not yet happening with gold coins here because people still buy coins. Old tradition of preferring coin over bars. It is as you describe. Demand is bigger than supply. But it is for the metal, at that price point. Melting will happen when price falls and scares all those not collectors who have been buying.
You are sure those sovereigns you saw were going to melt not for resale in some other place?