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 Replies: 47 / Views: 2,732 |
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Valued Member
United States
311 Posts |
The easiest way for countries to avoid having their assets confiscated is to just not be a jerk. Can Iran buy enough gold to fix their currency? Seems it would be a lot easier to just behave. I would guess the main driver of current gold demand is from emerging countries that want to add legitimacy to their currencies and to avoid a constantly drifting USD. As everyone here has pointed out, the eroding value of USD is a given and has been a feature since forever. This seems to be the immediate concern of a lot of Central Banks but they get bored easily and could just as easily turn into sellers
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Bedrock of the Community
 United States
11880 Posts |
Quote:
No, because there is a difference between individuals and central banks. Central banks are operated by individuals. They may face different mandates and constraints but both individuals acting for themselves and individuals acting on behalf of central banks react to the expectation of inflation and the devaluation of their currency in similar ways. They try to find ways to protect the value of their assets. The examples of Poland and India illustrate that perfectly as you have argued - that they are accumulating gold. IN NECESSARIIS UNITAS - IN DUBIIS LIBERTAS - IN OMNIBUS CARITAS THE MAN IN THE ARENA, Theodore Roosevelt at the Sorbonne Paris on April 23, 1910: " It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles or where the doer of deeds could have done better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood, who strives valiantly, who errs and comes up short again and again, because there is no effort without error or shortcoming, but who knows the great enthusiasms, the great devotions, who spends himself in a worthy cause; who, at the best, knows, in the end, the triumph of high achievement, and who, at the worst, if he fails, at least he fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who knew neither victory nor defeat." My coin website: https://fairfaxcoins.comEdited by numismatic student
01/25/2026 3:52 pm
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
11880 Posts |
2025 U.S. GDP growth is expected to be 2.3-2.4%. 2025 U.S. CPI was reported to be 2.7%. This means that the growth of our domestic GDP was negative in inflation-adjusted terms. In devalued current U.S. dollars, the value of 2025 GDP was less than the value of GDP in 2024. Another way to look at it is that inflation domestically is higher than the rate of growth in GPD, the value of all goods and services produced in our economy. The reported numbers are better than the market expected as the U.S. dollar index dropped 12% (The dollar index topped 2025 at $109.88 and has dropped to $97.46.) indicating that our currency has devalued that much against a basket of other currencies. It dropped the most shortly after the 2025 inauguration and again after the time of the announcement of the new tariff policies.  IN NECESSARIIS UNITAS - IN DUBIIS LIBERTAS - IN OMNIBUS CARITAS THE MAN IN THE ARENA, Theodore Roosevelt at the Sorbonne Paris on April 23, 1910: " It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles or where the doer of deeds could have done better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood, who strives valiantly, who errs and comes up short again and again, because there is no effort without error or shortcoming, but who knows the great enthusiasms, the great devotions, who spends himself in a worthy cause; who, at the best, knows, in the end, the triumph of high achievement, and who, at the worst, if he fails, at least he fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who knew neither victory nor defeat." My coin website: https://fairfaxcoins.comEdited by numismatic student
01/25/2026 3:53 pm
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
11880 Posts |
U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, November 2025 https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/us-in...ovember-2025Exports (exhibits 3, 6, and 7) Nonmonetary gold decreased $4.2 billion. The October nonmonetary gold export number was $17.1 billion so exports dropped to $12.9 billion in November, but still shows large monthly outflows from the country. The trade deficit soared to $56.8 billion in November increasing by 94.6%. IN NECESSARIIS UNITAS - IN DUBIIS LIBERTAS - IN OMNIBUS CARITAS THE MAN IN THE ARENA, Theodore Roosevelt at the Sorbonne Paris on April 23, 1910: " It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles or where the doer of deeds could have done better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood, who strives valiantly, who errs and comes up short again and again, because there is no effort without error or shortcoming, but who knows the great enthusiasms, the great devotions, who spends himself in a worthy cause; who, at the best, knows, in the end, the triumph of high achievement, and who, at the worst, if he fails, at least he fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who knew neither victory nor defeat." My coin website: https://fairfaxcoins.comEdited by numismatic student
01/29/2026 09:55 am
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Moderator
 United States
187862 Posts |
Quote:
The trade deficit soared to $56.8 billion in November increasing by 94.6%.   |
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
11880 Posts |
Yesterday, December 2025 inflation numbers were released and inflation is raging hot. Argues for the price of gold and silver to continue rising especially when priced in increasingly shrinking dollars.  IN NECESSARIIS UNITAS - IN DUBIIS LIBERTAS - IN OMNIBUS CARITAS THE MAN IN THE ARENA, Theodore Roosevelt at the Sorbonne Paris on April 23, 1910: " It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles or where the doer of deeds could have done better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood, who strives valiantly, who errs and comes up short again and again, because there is no effort without error or shortcoming, but who knows the great enthusiasms, the great devotions, who spends himself in a worthy cause; who, at the best, knows, in the end, the triumph of high achievement, and who, at the worst, if he fails, at least he fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who knew neither victory nor defeat." My coin website: https://fairfaxcoins.com |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3343 Posts |
Bureau of Labor Statistics shows 2.7% CPI increase in 2025. Not sure where the other number comes from but 3% is hardly smoking compared to PM's. The dollar index rose sharply yesterday, but differences between fiat currencies are basically noise IMO. The reason for the sudden drop yesterday in PM's is anyone's guess. What is real is that there's a big shortage of COMEX silver right now, which is punishing shorts that need metal for their margin calls. https://news.bitcoin.com/comex-silv...-full-swing/I was busy standing in line to sell a little bit of dental gold. The buyer cut off coins and sterling last Monday because refiners are not taking any, and are 5 days late on payments. The scrap gold coming in was mostly jewelry, and the buyer has not seen anything numismatic in the last month at least. "Two minutes ago I would have sold my chances for a tired dime." Fred Astaire
Edited by thq
01/31/2026 3:55 pm
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
11880 Posts |
The producer price index is a precursor to the consumer price index. It means that the costs to producers are rising faster than their ability to pass those prices to consumers, meaning that producers had to eat the difference in losses.
That bodes ill for trying to bring production onshore from abroad as producers here can't pass on cost increases to their customers. Who wants to create businesses that are getting squeezed on costs?
The policy target rate for inflation is 2%. 3% inflation means that it is running 50% above target. And inflation is running higher than the growth rate of U.S. GDP, which is estimated at 2.7%. That means our economy is not growing in real terms. It is actually shrinking in real terms.
IN NECESSARIIS UNITAS - IN DUBIIS LIBERTAS - IN OMNIBUS CARITAS THE MAN IN THE ARENA, Theodore Roosevelt at the Sorbonne Paris on April 23, 1910: " It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles or where the doer of deeds could have done better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood, who strives valiantly, who errs and comes up short again and again, because there is no effort without error or shortcoming, but who knows the great enthusiasms, the great devotions, who spends himself in a worthy cause; who, at the best, knows, in the end, the triumph of high achievement, and who, at the worst, if he fails, at least he fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who knew neither victory nor defeat." My coin website: https://fairfaxcoins.com |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3343 Posts |
Right now (2/2 AM) there appears to be a furious churning by short sellers reaping the bubble price, while at the same time buying to cover their positions at the lower price they created by selling. The COMEX physical silver inventory is depleted and if the shorts trying to cover their positions wipe it out who knows what happens next. Add to that the central banks swooping in to build their strategic inventories. Way too much demand, way too little metal.
I thought about selling some more gold yesterday, then thought nah. It took patience and time to accumulate it and I can't foresee doing it again even if we're back at $1200. The junky stuff is all gone.
"Two minutes ago I would have sold my chances for a tired dime." Fred Astaire
Edited by thq
02/02/2026 09:15 am
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
11880 Posts |
In spite of last week's sudden drop, it seems like the market bias for gold, silver and other metals is upward in a clearly inflationary environment.
IN NECESSARIIS UNITAS - IN DUBIIS LIBERTAS - IN OMNIBUS CARITAS THE MAN IN THE ARENA, Theodore Roosevelt at the Sorbonne Paris on April 23, 1910: " It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles or where the doer of deeds could have done better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood, who strives valiantly, who errs and comes up short again and again, because there is no effort without error or shortcoming, but who knows the great enthusiasms, the great devotions, who spends himself in a worthy cause; who, at the best, knows, in the end, the triumph of high achievement, and who, at the worst, if he fails, at least he fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who knew neither victory nor defeat." My coin website: https://fairfaxcoins.comEdited by numismatic student
02/04/2026 12:05 am
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Moderator
United States
187862 Posts |
We underestimate market pressures at our own peril. |
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
11880 Posts |
Apparently China is importing record volumes of silver according to KITCO on top of limiting exports. China silver imports hit record high - nearly 800 tonnes - in January and FebruaryKitco Media - By Ernest Hoffman, Published on Mar 20, 2026  (Kitco News) - China's silver imports hit an eight-year high in the first two months of 2026 as burgeoning demand from the industrial and investment sectors boosted local price premiums, drained domestic silver stockpiles, and drove unprecedented foreign purchases, according to the latest customs data released Friday. In January and February, China imported over 790 tonnes of silver, the data showed, with February alone accounting for a year-over-year record of 470 tonnes in imports. Strong local demand drove domestic prices significantly higher than the global benchmark, draining the already depleted exchange reserves and incentivizing metals purchases from overseas. 2026 has seen the most volatile start for silver prices of any year on record, with spot silver hitting a nominal all-time high of $121.62 per ounce on January 29, 2026, before losing nearly half its value to plunge to $64 per ounce by February 6. In January, analysts at Goldman Sachs warned that China's new export controls would likely exacerbate local shortages and global dislocations, and could even fragment the global silver market itself. "Thinner inventories have created conditions for squeezes, where rallies accelerate as investor flows absorb remaining metal in the London vaults and reverse sharply when tightness eases," Goldman analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven wrote. The analysts said that the price turbulence is not being driven by a global shortage of silver, but by localized supply bottlenecks that are keeping the market distorted. China's new 2026 export restrictions, which now require official approval for outbound silver shipments, have only added to the volatility. Goldman said this move could actually fragment the global silver market, reducing liquidity while amplifying price swings. "Disruption risk may prompt participants to secure their own stockpiles rather than share buffers globally," the analysts said. "This shift from a pooled global system to isolated regional inventories would create an inefficient structure — transforming a smooth, integrated market into one prone to sharp, localized price swings." IN NECESSARIIS UNITAS - IN DUBIIS LIBERTAS - IN OMNIBUS CARITAS THE MAN IN THE ARENA, Theodore Roosevelt at the Sorbonne Paris on April 23, 1910: " It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles or where the doer of deeds could have done better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood, who strives valiantly, who errs and comes up short again and again, because there is no effort without error or shortcoming, but who knows the great enthusiasms, the great devotions, who spends himself in a worthy cause; who, at the best, knows, in the end, the triumph of high achievement, and who, at the worst, if he fails, at least he fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who knew neither victory nor defeat." My coin website: https://fairfaxcoins.com |
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
11880 Posts |
As China buys all the gold and silver it can get its hands on, the official debt of our nation went over $39 Trillion for the first time ever this week, continuing to set new records every minute that passes.  IN NECESSARIIS UNITAS - IN DUBIIS LIBERTAS - IN OMNIBUS CARITAS THE MAN IN THE ARENA, Theodore Roosevelt at the Sorbonne Paris on April 23, 1910: " It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles or where the doer of deeds could have done better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood, who strives valiantly, who errs and comes up short again and again, because there is no effort without error or shortcoming, but who knows the great enthusiasms, the great devotions, who spends himself in a worthy cause; who, at the best, knows, in the end, the triumph of high achievement, and who, at the worst, if he fails, at least he fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who knew neither victory nor defeat." My coin website: https://fairfaxcoins.com |
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
11880 Posts |
And a testament to the value of the dollar in LA today... Diesel determines the transportation charge for every single product sold in the world, because how else do products make it into your hands?  IN NECESSARIIS UNITAS - IN DUBIIS LIBERTAS - IN OMNIBUS CARITAS THE MAN IN THE ARENA, Theodore Roosevelt at the Sorbonne Paris on April 23, 1910: " It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles or where the doer of deeds could have done better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood, who strives valiantly, who errs and comes up short again and again, because there is no effort without error or shortcoming, but who knows the great enthusiasms, the great devotions, who spends himself in a worthy cause; who, at the best, knows, in the end, the triumph of high achievement, and who, at the worst, if he fails, at least he fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who knew neither victory nor defeat." My coin website: https://fairfaxcoins.com |
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Moderator
United States
187862 Posts |
Sad. So sad.  |
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Replies: 47 / Views: 2,732 |
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Posted 01/25/2026 3:18 pm
