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Premiums On ASE And Resellers

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Author Previous TopicReplies: 25 / Views: 3,562Next Topic Page 2 of 2
Pillar of the Community
United States
4008 Posts
 Posted 04/18/2011  8:09 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ed_B to your friends list

Quote:
Does the historical ratio of 16:1 necessarily hold in modern times? If there are more efficient ways to extract gold and/or silver nowadays, those changes in efficiency should be reflected in the ratio, correct? - Crow

It should. The geologists tell us that the actual ratio of silver to gold in the Earth's crust is somewhere between 16:1 and 17:1. Assuming that it is no more difficult to mine one than the other, the amount available should determine the value ratio as well.

Historically, of course, this ratio has run all over the place for various reasons. At times, this has hit 80:1, which would be an outstanding place to sell gold and buy silver. Then, when the ratio gets back to something more typical, say 20:1, that's the time to sell the silver and buy gold. In relative terms, gold is sold when silver is cheap and silver is sold when gold is cheap.

Because of this changing ratio, bullion collectors can switch from gold to silver and vice versa depending on the ratio and increase the total number of ounces they hold. They can also sell off some ounces of gold or silver at these times to produce "dividends". Those who are unaware of this do not think that gold or silver produce dividends but it is certainly possible to create situations where free cash is thrown off, essentially creating our own dividends.
Pillar of the Community
United States
667 Posts
 Posted 04/19/2011  1:52 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add mkfarm to your friends list
So far my local suppliers are still buying new ASE's and they are selling them as fast as they are getting them in the door.
Pillar of the Community
United States
2764 Posts
 Posted 04/19/2011  10:16 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add SA4H to your friends list
Since the subject matter is on "Premium" vs. Spot, I would like to share my "2cents" of thought (I'm no mean an expert though).

Many people have mentioned that "Spot Price" is the price on paper (ie: paper silver). For anyone to hold physical of the PM there are many cost associated w/ that: Minting/creating the bullion, delivery, storage, etc. In another word, whenever you choose to buy PM and physically taking delivery, there are extra cost (ie: Premium). Those of you dealing with Kitco would know.

Now, specifically, regarding "premium" on ASE.

First of all, ASE is a very popular bullion (ie: higher demand = higher premium). Brand name and recognition.

Secondly, it's a "hedge" again price rise or replacement cost. In another word: If I sell you an ASE for $43 when silver spot is at $40 then how much would it cost me to replace that "sold" ASE when silver spot go up to $42 the next day; it would cost $45, may be more; not only that, I may run the risk of unable to replace my inventory. Which mean I have to pay a higher "premium" to replace my "sold" inventory...... It's a business concept where "premium" increase in relation with the rate of change of the base price (how fast silver spot price change), NOT proportionally to the change of the spot price. This can also apply to rapid price decrease. Conversely, one would expect "premium" (price spread) should shrink when the price fluctuation is minimal.

Lastly, "premium" also associated with quality/purity of product. 99.99% purity would command a higher "premium" over 90% purity.

I hope this help.
Edited by SA4H
04/19/2011 10:16 pm
Pillar of the Community
United States
1285 Posts
 Posted 04/20/2011  06:08 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ceylon62 to your friends list
Bruce, Thanks for getting back on point ‘premium"

What he said was that due to the expansion in premium / wider spread, he does not want to tie up capital in the spread as he cannot hedge the premium.

As per the paper -- You can delivery of the physical via the slv. Not sure if it is 100K oz's or 1M oz's a pop.
Valued Member
United States
314 Posts
 Posted 04/20/2011  06:30 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add ayejay1974 to your friends list
The paper contracts being traded that determine spot are 5,000 ounces each.
Edited by ayejay1974
04/20/2011 06:31 am
Pillar of the Community
United States
1285 Posts
 Posted 04/20/2011  07:15 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ceylon62 to your friends list
ayejay
To clarify -- I am referring to taking delivery via the slv etf NOT comex. This was written about 2 months back.

There is a lot of fine print in doing it that way.
Pillar of the Community
United States
4008 Posts
 Posted 04/21/2011  01:05 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ed_B to your friends list

Quote:
As per the paper -- You can delivery of the physical via the slv. Not sure if it is 100K oz's or 1M oz's a pop. - Ceylon


An interesting aspect of all this is that supposedly there is about $100 worth of paper silver or gold for every REAL $1's worth. So... what happens if EVERYONE (or even 2% of them) who holds paper PMs demands delivery? That fluttering sound you hear in the background could be the house-of-cards Paper-PM system tumbling down around their ears. Not sure how invested in metal the SLV really is but a quick look at their NAV divided by their total (and independently audited) silver holdings in ounces had better be REAL close to the daily price of silver. If it isn't, and clients really can demand silver from their vaults, look out below!

Pillar of the Community
United States
1285 Posts
 Posted 04/23/2011  06:18 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ceylon62 to your friends list
Each share of SLV is backed by 1 oz of physical silver in various vaults around the world. Each bar is assayed, registered, numbered etc. A lot of the big funds have taken delivery of the physical via the slv.

SLV is also used as a hedging tool by those who hold the physical as well (another topic).

It's best to do ones own DD as some of the info is misleading / incorrect.

Pillar of the Community
United States
931 Posts
 Posted 04/23/2011  10:43 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add junior e to your friends list
I have been listening to pro gold / silver shortwave people like Alex Jones and Jim Cedarstrom for years, and I take most of what they say with a grain of salt. However they have indisputably been right on the money with their beliefs of the precious metal markets. If I had invested when I first started listening I wouldn't have to work anymore. One thing that is missing from their projections is the drying up of available gold and silver, and also the high premiums that they felt would be required to acquire gold and silver once the market took off. I am pro gold and silver and I am still accumulating some every week. If the market does go way higher the supply of easily available precious metals may dry up. At this point not only will the markets continue to climb due to a rarity of available material, but the premiums may rise sharply at some point as China, India, and the other nations are strengthening their currencies through precious metal acquisition. No one knows, but the time may be coming when you cannot just walk into your dealer and pick up ASE's for $6.00 over spot. Maybe that time is coming and maybe not. One thing is for sure and that is that these are very interesting times to be involved in this hobby. I would also like to say that the discussions on this forum are very civilized. I like the opinions of the bulls as well as the bears.
Valued Member
United States
309 Posts
 Posted 04/24/2011  11:37 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add hermanwilliams to your friends list
The price of Morgan's has seemed to stabalize a little. For a minute the premium on them was sharp but it seems that their premium hasn't risen as much as the ASE's premium.
Pillar of the Community
United States
4008 Posts
 Posted 04/25/2011  01:26 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ed_B to your friends list

Quote:
Each share of SLV is backed by 1 oz of physical silver in various vaults around the world. Each bar is assayed, registered, numbered etc. A lot of the big funds have taken delivery of the physical via the slv.

I am curious about this assertion. I have read on various web sites that this is not the case and that some ETFs do not allow clients to receive physical gold or silver from their "vaults". Additionally, conditions may be applied to these accounts such that only large clients can take physical possession of these PMs. Have you read the SLV prospectus? I haven't because I am not an investor in it. I would be curious about what they say about delivery of physical silver and any conditions that may be imposed on that.
Pillar of the Community
United States
1285 Posts
 Posted 04/25/2011  06:21 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ceylon62 to your friends list
Yes, I read the prospectus a while back and some have taken of the physical delivery as I indicated earlier on in this post / thread. Can I take delivery of my shares..No.

I am only referring to SLV and not some other ETF (big difference).

Check Ishares, Morningstar, and Vanguard etc meaning investment related websites to see how the various etf are structured. Also, various publications once in a while put out special issues just covering ETF securities and they are worthwhile reference tools on the pros on cons.
New Member
United States
45 Posts
 Posted 04/25/2011  06:55 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add slickeast to your friends list
If you bought ASE's last week at a premium the price you paid is UNDER melt price now.
Pillar of the Community
United States
4008 Posts
 Posted 04/25/2011  1:42 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ed_B to your friends list

Quote:
Yes, I read the prospectus a while back and some have taken of the physical delivery as I indicated earlier on in this post / thread. Can I take delivery of my shares..No.

OK, good. Then you know whereof you speak.

I agree that being able to take delivery of physical silver at your discretion from an ETF is important. If an ETF is structured this way, then they have to maintain a sufficient stock of silver to handle any withdrawal requests. It is possible for there to be a "run" on silver that is similar to the bank run of the 1930s. That would get pretty ugly for any ETF that could not deliver silver in quantity.


Quote:
I am only referring to SLV and not some other ETF (big difference).

Understood. There are numerous ways to structure an ETF, so there are several choices in this. Some even use derivatives for hedging, which is something I prefer to avoid whenever possible.


Quote:
Check Ishares, Morningstar, and Vanguard etc meaning investment related websites to see how the various etf are structured. Also, various publications once in a while put out special issues just covering ETF securities and they are worthwhile reference tools on the pros on cons.

I check those sites often and find a lot of their info quite useful. As a Vanguard client, I rolled my 401k plan money into an IRA with them. There have been a few glitches but it has worked well for the most part. If they had a low-cost brokerage option, they would be about as good as it gets. Since they don't, I use Scottrade for that.


Valued Member
Canada
497 Posts
 Posted 06/14/2011  11:49 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add west- canuk to your friends list
Re 'taking possession of physical silver' , check out what happened to this woman :
http://www.gata.org/node/8837
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