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Crisis Prices

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Valued Member
United States
103 Posts
 Posted 06/10/2011  05:30 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add dMAN to your friends list
Sel, Well put. I am right with you as for the loss of sovereignty. Our country is too great to let this happen. It will be a said day if we ever stop being the shiny city on the hill.
Valued Member
Cyprus
349 Posts
 Posted 06/10/2011  06:35 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ozzie to your friends list
When the dollar rallies again at some point in the future the prices of PM's will fall as it always does. What goes up must come down.
Pillar of the Community
United States
3670 Posts
 Posted 06/10/2011  1:10 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Silverhawk74 to your friends list
Ozzie, has the dollar not made any recovery say form 2000 to now, where gold has climbed form 250 an oz. to 1537, and it is down 7 bucks on the day?

To think gold will fall back down now is wishful thinking too most....

Does anyone here in this forum really think in 10 years, gold or silver will be worth less than it is now? Sure it will go up and it will go down, bu in the long run it is gonna keep climbing, is that how the nature of things work, with all commodities, via inflation?

I was so naive as say an eight year old child, I looked at the gas read out on the pump, and associated a dollar of money, as a gallon of gas. I recall the day, when my father bought 10 bucks worth of gas, but the read out only showed say nine and a half gallons of gas, so I asked my father why, and he explained how things work. Gas, was like a dollar and five cents a gallon then. Does anyone think they will ever see gas for a gallon again?

It has went up, to never come back down. Not below say $2.50 a gallon for a few of the coldest non travel months of the year perhaps, and that is wishful thinking....
Edited by Silverhawk74
06/10/2011 1:16 pm
Valued Member
Cyprus
349 Posts
 Posted 06/11/2011  12:15 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ozzie to your friends list
Can anyone show me a chart where the USD and gold/silver moves in the same direction? They normally move in opposite directions. Gold silver goes up USD goes down. Gold and silver goes down, USD goes up.
Pillar of the Community
United States
4008 Posts
 Posted 06/11/2011  12:30 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ed_B to your friends list
The development of a world currency might not necessarily require an EOTWAWKI situation. Like a lot of things, it could well develop slowly with a few nations participating in it as a trade booster. Those nations would prosper and other nations would be interested in joining in order to have a share of that prosperity. No one would be putting a gun to anyone's head. They could freely join or leave as they see fit. At some point, the trade advantages could become so great that no nation would want to not be in it.

The entire length of human history has been a process of coming together and merging into larger and larger units. Individuals coalesced into families, families became tribes, tribes became clans, clans became nations, and nations became associated together in leagues for trade, knowledge, and defense. Europe is uniting economically, if not quite politically, under the banner of the Euro, for the 1st time ever and we are all watching this history unfold. It is truly significant as it is a first... the birth of the Super-Nation. At some point, other world regions will do this. At a later point, all of them will combine into a single economic entity... a United Earth, if you will. The political part will trail but will eventually follow the economic part into a single unified human civilization with a common language, most likely English, and a common economic system, most likely regulated capitalism.

I understand that this is a HUGE concept and that not everyone is ready to embrace it... and that's OK. I'm not completely comfortable with it either... but, I DO see it coming and, barring complete disaster of some kind, it is inevitable.

Pillar of the Community
United States
860 Posts
 Posted 06/11/2011  12:44 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add desertgem to your friends list

By choosing a time frame to begin or end a chart, you can show almost any relationship. People like to look at long term charts expecting the directions to predict what will continue to happen. Others look at intraday charts as their trading range is a day. The same factors occurring in the world may affect the USD and PM similarly or oppositely.

Today, the DowJInd were -172.45 ( worse week in 9 years)
Gold was up $3.30
USD was up .044
Si was down .132
The Euro was about flat ( -.0004)

Most would have expected Gold to be higher if fear was high, but it was offset by nervous news from China slowdown. evidently they are worse off than many expect. The Yen has problems, the Euro has problems, The PIIGS are getting shakier, and even the BRIC countries are nervous. Flooding in several areas of the world, drought in others, crop problems, OPEC arguing among themselves, oil producing countries in conflict,etc.

You think you know what is happening and why, and then another variable comes into play. Gold is acting more as a fear reaction than is silver, but not to the level most expect.

People want a strong dollar,high precious metals, cheap gas, high job numbers, recovered housing, ethical financial institutions, and people in politics who worry more about the country and it citizens than keeping their pants on when twitting, and folks we have a long ways to go.IMO.
Valued Member
Cyprus
349 Posts
 Posted 06/11/2011  06:59 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ozzie to your friends list
I am referring to the generally accepted trend of how gold and silver and USD behave. Fundamentals I believe don't play such an important role anymore. Political manipulation is a far more important factor.
Pillar of the Community
United States
860 Posts
 Posted 06/11/2011  2:00 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add desertgem to your friends list

Since commodities are priced world wide in USD, if all other factors are inactive or neutral, when the dollar strengthens, then the price of commodities will weaken, and reversely, the USD weakens,commodities strengthen.

If commodities were priced in Euros, the same relationship would track for Euros.

However, I don't believe it is possible for neutral factors over a long time span, and changing factors, whether financial , political, psychological or other, can cause both commodities and USD to go the same direction or flip to an opposite relationship than normal. IMO

Jim
Valued Member
United States
103 Posts
 Posted 06/11/2011  3:27 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add dMAN to your friends list
I do not want a super nation. Sure it sounds nice and peaceful, who doesn't want that. Unfortunately man has flaws and human nature will eventually take over with power grabs and struggles. I want a STRONG America. Ultimately I feel the dollar is on the way side and may not recover. If this happens gold and silver will surely sky rocket. Too what extent I dont know, thats the reasoning for my post.
We desperately need some sort of monetary reform, whatever that may be. One thing is certain, Fractional Banking is seriously flawed.
Pillar of the Community
United States
4008 Posts
 Posted 06/12/2011  8:09 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ed_B to your friends list
Want it or not, the handwriting IS on the wall.

For a long time, national sovereignty has been a source of great pride. Nations tend to guard and protect this to the best extent that they can. As nations become more involved with each other via trade, however, some aspects of national sovereignty must change. In all partnerships, things are given up so that others are gained. This is no different. OK, so now what happens when the leaders of our nation insist on doing idiotic things that will result in terrible problems a few years down the road. Make no mistake about this... we ARE on that path. Is the freedom to behave stupidly really worth suffering severe economic consequences? Sometimes, we just have to wonder about that.
Valued Member
United States
103 Posts
 Posted 06/14/2011  6:25 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add dMAN to your friends list
Ed_B, I don't deny being on that path one bit. I'm not sure as to what exactly you meant in your last sentence so forgive me if I misunderstood, but are you insinuating giving up some of our freedom to fix this economic discourse? If so please elaborate.
Pillar of the Community
United States
4008 Posts
 Posted 06/14/2011  8:44 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ed_B to your friends list

Quote:
Ed_B, I don't deny being on that path one bit. I'm not sure as to what exactly you meant in your last sentence so forgive me if I misunderstood, but are you insinuating giving up some of our freedom to fix this economic discourse? If so please elaborate.

It was a question that I was hoping others would consider and then offer their opinions. I am not advocating one way or the other. In general, I reject the idea of ever giving up ANY personal freedom. There are already WAY too many laws, rules, and regulations in place and every one of them already limits our freedoms.

The freedom of a government to behave stupidly should be controlled by its citizens. If not, then other nations will do that for us and probably in ways that we will not like. Remember... debt is a form of ownership. If you are up to your eyeballs in debt, whoever holds that debt has a claim on your assets. In the case of a nation, those assets include its productive capacity, raw materials, land, and perhaps even its ability to tax its citizens. If the measures "suggested" by a creditor country are not implemented, they do have the right to refuse any more credit. This can be a very tricky situation but a large part of my point is that being in debt to a very large extent is a bad thing. It's bad for individuals and it is bad for nations. That debt HAS to be paid. If it is not, then all manner of progressively worse events are likely to follow.
Pillar of the Community
United States
3670 Posts
 Posted 06/14/2011  9:26 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Silverhawk74 to your friends list
In 2008, when all those big banks merged and handed over control to the feds under the tarp program, seems like they opened up the doors Ed speaks of perhaps....

That movie I had mentioned...."To big to fail" let me sum to the best of my ability to how I interpreted it....

Average Joe was given loans by the bank to buy a house, the American dream. In my opinion, signing an adjustable rate is just a bad idea, but average Joe figured he could pay the loan, figuring if the bank gives it to me, I must be able to keep up with the payments right? Wrong, the banks knew the rates would change and many would loose their house, but they did not care (this is that greed that brings a nation down), as AIG was covering all those bad loans via insurance policy's on those loans, so the banks could not loose. Problem was, they set up way too many of those policies across the entire planet, so if they all were fore closed on same day, it would have basically created a domino effect that would bring the entire market crashing down, like in the late 20's....

The part I liked the most, was when one of the key figures spoke of studying the great depression for the past 30 years. He said it was not the market's crash itself that hit middle America so hard, it was the total in-ability for anyone to get any credit. To buy a home, or stock ones shelves. I asked my grand father about this in his last days now, and he lived through it all, and agreed that that was indeed the major problem for most of America, total lack of any credit, as all their banks obviously collapsed....

What did the government do to fix all this mess in 2008, take 7 billion and inject it back into the system via more loans to create capital, or at least they were hoping they would loan it all out, or did they?

Today I see an email from "money morning" saying the Chinese housing market is about to collapse, and how will it effect gold, was the title to article. It said their housing market is down 40% and the bottom has not been seen yet. This is gonna make our little scare seem like small potatoes....

My point for all this, I feel the events of 2008 were just a short fix, temporary band aid if you will, and who knows what repercussions we still may see from all that yet. I wonder, could decisions then have any affect on what is going on in China now, via their housing market issues?
Edited by Silverhawk74
06/14/2011 11:30 pm
Pillar of the Community
United States
1450 Posts
 Posted 06/14/2011  10:14 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add hockingzig to your friends list
The problem is,no one wants to take the consequences of their actions. During the great depression people learned to live on what they had and the entire generation became frugal. There were no government programs in place and if you were in debt up to your eyeballs you went bankrupt and were on the street. You had to find a way to live,but you had the freedom to be successful or to fail. That is an important freedom. We learn more from failure as a result of our own actions than we do if someone bails us out every time we make a wrong choice. I am willing to take my chances if there is a level playing field,but,there's the rub! Every situation is rigged so the folks in charge can't lose! That is why as a nation we are screwed and part of the reason people will give up freedoms is because they have no hope otherwise. We have allowed our selves,mostly out of a desire for convenience and safety,to be led down a path of giving up our freedoms and never assessing the final cost. Well,here we are! We have only our selves to blame,and most of the nation is still in denial. God save us all!
Pillar of the Community
United States
3670 Posts
 Posted 06/14/2011  11:18 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Silverhawk74 to your friends list
Great points Hock, esp the first and last sentences....
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