| Author |
 Replies: 19 / Views: 3,386 |
Page 2 of 2
|
|
|
|
Pillar of the Community
United States
667 Posts |
Now you moved into speculation on two market pricing factors. I don't combine both but their certainly are people that do. If you want it to work the way you are thinking you should be buying all MS 65 plus coins for classic silver & gold.
My feelings are that as the largest group of coin collectors have started to age and will over the next 10 years plus we may see more and more great but ungraded coins in the market place. This may drive the price down on everything but the higher graded and slabbed coins.
Just remember it has been the rare coins that have outperformed bullion close to 4 to 1 since 1971.
|
|
Pillar of the Community
United States
2661 Posts |
Shop around, a lot. There are still rare opportunities out there where $2.50 & $5 gold pieces can be had for well below there melt and numismatic values. With these it is a matter of being in the right place at the right time.
|
|
Bedrock of the Community
Australia
21788 Posts |
barryg: I think you are right.
But just for the near future, I think gold has zoomed up a bit too much, and will fall back. I can't say how far back, but I feel that it won't be too much below the long term trend price line this time around. Gold is often regarded as a safe investment haven, but it is a rather bumpy haven when it comes to pricing!
Review the long term price graph on an often and regular basis, before committing a decision to buy. Really, it becomes just a decision like any other investment, and your decision should be an entirely rational one.
Have a look at the theories of 'dollar cost averaging', and 'moving averages'. Knowledge of these theories should make your buy and sell decisions more rational and impassionate. Gold, like the stockmarket, has a history of being highly price volatile, and you need to defend yourself against this.
For me, gold does not shine as much as for other folks. I have quite a few gold coins, but most have numismatic value a good deal above the bullion value. I see it as just another metal from which coins are made, and as such, has a legitimate place in a collection of numismatic significance.
|
|
Pillar of the Community
 United States
5855 Posts |
Quote:
But just for the near future, I think gold has zoomed up a bit too much, and will fall back. I can't say how far back, but I feel that it won't be too much below the long term trend price line this time around. Gold is often regarded as a safe investment haven, but it is a rather bumpy haven when it comes to pricing! Quite so! As I said, I've always shied away from investing in pure bullion (as opposed to collectible coins) because the prices were stable for so long. Heck, except for the last 3 or 4 years, you would have gotten a better return on your investment leaving your money in a savings bank over the last 30 years. And I still have a niggling feeling that this current bubble is about to burst and send gold back down well below $1000 to stay for another 30 years. The only reason I am even considering buying gold right now is the sheer number of people who are absolutely 100% convinced that the price is going to keep climbing for the foreseeable future. I didn't listen to them when gold was at $800/oz, and I didn't listen to them when gold was at $1300/oz. Now I'm starting to think I was foolish not to listen and there may still be time to jump on gold train. I want to hedge my bets as much as possible, though, which is why I still don't want to buy pure bullion. But I'm still hoping somebody can at least tell me what coins like these were selling for back when gold was at $300 or $600/oz. If they were selling for, say, around $1000 each back then, I'd feel pretty secure buying them at a premium right now, since presumably they would still be worth $1000 each to collectors even if gold dropped back down. On the other hand, if they were only selling for, say, $400 when gold was $300/oz, it probably wouldn't be worth it. |
|
Pillar of the Community
United States
759 Posts |
Here's one hard data set for you: Gold spot Aug 11 $1746, ebay sales price of AU $20 Liberty yesterday $1800, 0.9675 oz of gold = $1689 melt, nominal premium = $111, % premium = 6.6% Gold spot Aug 92 $337, $20 sales price $390 from ad, $326 melt, nominal premium = $64, % premium = 19.6% I actually think you could interpolate between those 2 points for a decent ballpark figure, although I don't believe the relationship in linear. Anyway, if gold hits $1000 an oz, that double eagle is probably selling for about $1050, $83/8.5% premiums. So there is some mitigation of the decrease, but not much. I agree that gold coins can be had at or below spot more often than bullion (not easy though) and with the history component, would be my choice. Note this was for below MS coins. MS price characteristics would, of course, be different. Good luck. |
|
Pillar of the Community
United States
5855 Posts |
Well, if you're gonna go all the way back to 1992, I think it fails to take into account the natural appreciation due to numismatic interest since then. Which to say that even had gold remained at $337 until right now, I would expect the worth of high quality gold eagles to have increased due to collector demand. But still, it's not as encouraging as I was hoping... I just hate buying bullion. I like collecting coins because of their appearance and history, which is independent of their metal content. Bullion has no value other than metal content, however, and it just doesn't excite me. Ah well, maybe I'll just keep buying high end Morgans and Peace dollars with my hard earned money and leave the gold coins to the rich folks.  |
|
Rest in Peace
United States
4849 Posts |
Quote:
I like collecting coins because of their appearance and history, which is independent of their metal content. Bullion has no value other than metal content, however, and it just doesn't excite me. My recommendation to you is to add a small amount of historical gold to your collection. Don't go "all in" on gold, but maybe put together a short type set of saint gaudens and incuse indians (quarter eagle - double eagle). Then you can enjoy them for their history and beauty whether gold goes up OR down. |
|
Pillar of the Community
United States
5855 Posts |
Well, I wasn't planning on taking our life savings and turning it into gold...  Actually, I was thinking of buying maybe a roll of 20 to start. Of course, if I really want them to retain their value over and above their gold value, I suppose I should only buy slabbed MS63+ coins. Which, of course, are even more expensive than raw AU-BU coins... |
|
Pillar of the Community
United States
2424 Posts |
agree with jonny the $5 half eagles seem to have the smallest premium. AND if you are trying to get the best value( most gold for your money) go for damaged or polished coins. APMEX and MONEX? one other bullion coin site sells pre 1933 coins that are polished for very little over spot. I would check with your dealer as well. mine gets rid of that stuff quick though... |
|
Pillar of the Community
United States
5855 Posts |
Do polished coins ever have any value over bullion prices, though? My whole point is to invest in something that will still have value if gold prices crash.
|
|
Bedrock of the Community
United States
20753 Posts |
Quote:
Do polished coins ever have any value over bullion prices, though? My whole point is to invest in something that will still have value if gold prices crash. Way to vague a question. An MS-66 coin that has been cleaned or polished may not even be noticed as that. Others may well be ruined. Each coin is different and so is the methods of cleaning or polishing. As to the original post, all I can add is try to remember that coin collecting should be thought of as a hobby, not an investment. Although a great track record in values up, so did many other hobbies at one time. Remember the Beanie Babies? Sports Cards? Hot Wheel Cars? Coins may or may not ever fall out of the money but for sure no hobby should be used as an investment. |
|
Pillar of the Community
United States
5855 Posts |
Quote:
Way to vague a question. An MS-66 coin that has been cleaned or polished may not even be noticed as that. Others may well be ruined. Each coin is different and so is the methods of cleaning or polishing. I was not aware of that. From what I've read around here, it seemed like cleaned coins were always pretty obvious to the trained eye (which I certainly don't have) and that cleaning ruins the value of any coin. I'm glad to know that isn't always the case. |
|
Valued Member
United States
460 Posts |
I have a relative that is investing a equally in different areas. He has Silver bullion, silver collector coins, gold bullion, and gold collector coins. The biggest thing is to shop around. Another thing is to look at how long of an investment turnaround are you looking at. Just remember not to have all in just PM.
|
|
Bedrock of the Community
Australia
21788 Posts |
barryg: Get hold of a book any way you can, which I think would be essential reading for your particular needs. It is:
How to Invest in Gold Coins,
by Donald J Hoppe, publ. by Arco Publishing Co. Inc., 302 pages.
Copyright 1970 by Arlington House, New Rochelle N.Y.
Library of Congress Catalog card No. 70-115342
ISBN 0-668-02999-4.
It is obviously an old book, perhaps a local library can give you the clues as to how to track down a copy. That is why have supplied so much detailed reference about the book.
I can assure you that though the pricing may be way behind the times, the relevance of the pricing is still perfectly current.
The author advises the reader as to how to go about building an investment portfolio of (mainly) North American gold coins. He also explains why, in his opinion, that investing in gold coins is the best defense against inflation of fiat money.
Also included is advice on how the Law operates in relation to collecting gold coins, a short history gold coins from ancient times, some examples of model collections, and advice on how to spot counterfeits, fakes and forgeries.
I found my copy at a coin show.
|
|
Rest in Peace
United States
9104 Posts |
Quote:
I have no idea what high grade double eagles used to sell for back when gold was only $300-600/oz, however. I just wasn't paying attention back then. $350-700 slobbed, $25 less raw. |
|
Page 2 of 2
|
Replies: 19 / Views: 3,386 |
Page 2 of 2
|
First Page
Posted 08/14/2011 07:45 am
