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Start Hoarding Lincoln Memorials?

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Valued Member

United States
477 Posts
 Posted 06/11/2012  9:28 pm Show Profile   Bookmark this topic Add greenprint to your friends list Get a Link to this Message Number of Subscribers
Hey,

So I know that the wheat pennies are always worth at least 3 cents their face value. A couple of decades after 1959 their value increased. I'm not talking a couple hundred years but only a couple of decades. If I hoarded 1000 dollars of wheat pennies in 1959 and sold them all to collectors I would have made at least 3000 dollars which is a rather large profit. I understand that I could of put that money in the bank but interest wouldn't have 3x my initial investment in the bank.

From what I understand hoarding coins for roughly 150 years (this seems to be the critical point) is generally not a good idea because at that point you would of made more money off interest. There's a certain year (not exactly sure which) in which you would make the most money off of hoarding coins verses interest from the bank. While one 1800 penny is worth like 45 dollars and if you hoarded 25 dollars worth in 1800 and sold to a collector you would of gotten 450 times your initial investment, however in 200 years you would of made more money off interest. So I conclude that there's money to be made in just hoarding coins for several decades and anything more than roughly 150 years can be rather risky.

So I have concluded that I should start hoarding Lincoln memorials and then cash out when I retire, hopefully by then each penny will be worth 3x their face value (like wheat pennies) resulting in more money for me rather than just putting it the bank.

Any counterarguments? I think this is a good idea. No I'm not talking about hoarding my life earnings, but only maybe a couple of thousand of dollars. I have concluded that it's best not to open the boxes unless I need the money to search for old Wheaties or Indian heads (I wouldn't want to spend those), other than that I don't see the point in opening them as it takes way to much time and energy to open all of them, search them, and reroll. Unfortunately my bank dosen't have a penny arcade so I have to re roll all of them.

I've also concluded that collecting for certain years is not really worth it to me because it takes more time to look at every single coin, even with only $100 dollars worth, way to much time, and that it would be best not to open them unless I need to spend the money.

*** Moved by Staff to a more appropriate forum. ***
Valued Member
freeman's Avatar
United States
95 Posts
 Posted 06/11/2012  10:28 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add freeman to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I see your point and it makes sense in terms of the Wheat cent. However, if you buy two thousand dollars worth of brinks boxes and save them for the next however many years until you retire. Then on the day you are ready to cash in you open the boxes to find two thousand dollars worth of 2010 LSC's in brinks boxes. Just a thought.
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amida17's Avatar
United States
4897 Posts
 Posted 06/11/2012  10:44 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add amida17 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
If you limit it to 1983-1987 BU cents....might be a
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unholyroller's Avatar
United States
1903 Posts
 Posted 06/11/2012  11:18 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add unholyroller to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Just use the rule of 72... let's say your bank averages 3% interest over the lifetime of your saving history (which is a low but realistic number). By dividing 72 by 3 you get 24. That means your investment will double in 24 years. So 1959....that is roughly 50 years ago, so your money would have doubled twice since then. That means if you instead put your $1000 in the bank in 1959...it would roughly be worth $4000 today. If by your estimation you could get 3 cents for each 1959 cent today....that would be $3000. The bank would be the better deal even at the low 3% interest. Even a 20 year treasury bond would beat 3%. Commodities ( which common date coins are ) almost never beat inflation long term and are usually linked directly to it so banks are usually the better bet in these cases.
Valued Member
United States
477 Posts
 Posted 06/12/2012  01:55 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add greenprint to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I get your point lets see

13,600.00 if saved in a short-term asset.
is a short-term asset the money you would earn in a bank of interst
i used this site http://www.measuringworth.com/ussave/
?
Valued Member
United States
477 Posts
 Posted 06/12/2012  02:10 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add greenprint to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
apparently short term assets are bonds?
Valued Member
United States
477 Posts
 Posted 06/12/2012  02:18 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add greenprint to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
it depends on what branch you use I'm not sure if I can find a calculator =/
Valued Member
United States
396 Posts
 Posted 06/12/2012  11:34 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add BigAppleBucky to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I think it's wise for people to keep a portion of their investments in metals. But be sensible about it. 100% is way too high and 5% is probably lower than would make a significant difference if inflation strikes hard.

10%, 20%, 50%? Probably up to you.

As a collector, you get the pleasure of just having the coins as well as any inflation hedge they offer.

Another consideration would be the effect of cents no longer being minted. Sooner or later that will happen.

Will cents become more collectable? I wonder how many years it took for large cents to become collectable after 1857?
Valued Member
United States
477 Posts
 Posted 06/12/2012  11:44 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add greenprint to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
My conclusions after lots of research...

No such calculator exists. It largely depends on the country your living in, what branch your using, how much money is in the savings account (if you have more money certain banks will give you a higher interest) etc.

So I figured out the math.
At bank of america I currently make 0.08% compounded monthly on my savings. When I first opened my account back in 2009 I believe it was 0.02% compounded monthly.

I used a interest calculator (nothing fancy just the general interest formula compounded monthly at 0.02%) with a principal amount of 1000.00 and after time t=40 years
$384.00
is the amount I would of earned off interest.

At 3.00% compounded monthly.
is the amount of interest $14400.00
I don't understand why you would think 3.00% is reasonable.

I have concluded that at 0.08% it would take me roughly 105 years to double my money I would be long gone by then.

I understand that interest rates are not static and change and I don't take this into consideration above because I can't really. Interest cannot be expressed as a function of time due to so many factors that make up it's value, so one cannot take this into consideration when mathematically calculating interest gained for future years as the interest rate for that year is not know and cannot be calculated. Still never the less I think it would take a very long time for me to double my money. I think I'll live for maybe just over 60 years more. But I wouldn't want to wait tell I'm very very old and may go any day to sell my coins. Maybe a decade after retirement at most. It would be a real shame to die before cashing in my coins to collectors . In order for me to double my money in 40 years off interest... lets see .21% on average every single year for the next 40 years in order to double my money. Betting on interest rates more than doubling for the next 40 years every single year is not exactly reasonable or safe thing to bet on. I now that we are in a rescission at the moment and our economy may get better within the next two decades, but jumping a whole .14 percent every single year just dosen't sound reasonable to me.

Taking out large amounts of coin (not life savings or anything maybe just a couple of thousand) and selling to collectors after 40 or 50 years seems like the safer investment. One could triple maybe even 4x their original investment. One has to take into consideration, storing such a thing for a long time, keeping it safe, etc.. If you however took out 1000 dollars in zinc pennies (we will assume you get no copper even though this is unlikely) and put it in a large bucket on top of a shelf it would weigh 552.486188 pounds and would be rather difficult to steal from your house in a couple of minutes. Keeping them rolled will allow you to cash them in in a emergency if you absolutely needed to.

What are your thoughts after this?
Edited by greenprint
06/12/2012 11:46 am
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CaptainFwiffo's Avatar
United States
4132 Posts
 Posted 06/12/2012  12:04 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add CaptainFwiffo to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Current interest rates are near historic lows, and are not a good way to judge long term performance of any particular investment. Also, a savings account at the bank is going to be one of the worst performing investments. You can easily do better with something like a CD, and a mutual fund or similar would do even better.

Only tripling your money since the 1959 would have been a TERRIBLE investment. That doesn't even beat inflation (which means you're losing money).

The S&P 500 was about 55 in Jan 1959 and is 1,317 today (and that's after an unprecedented 12 years of moving sideways). So you'd expect a $1000 investment in stocks in 1959 to get to something like $23,700 today (not adjusting for inflation).

Even if you restricted yourself to uncirculated rolls (assuming you can get them at face), it's dubious.
Edited by CaptainFwiffo
06/12/2012 12:06 pm
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Center Pin's Avatar
Canada
178 Posts
 Posted 06/12/2012  12:20 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Center Pin to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Don't forget inflation! The government quoted numbers are 2-3% however the real number is 10-12% right now and with the way things are we could see hyper-inflation or stag-flation in the next decade.

Think of this, if my grandpa put a Morgan dollar under his pillow back in the day, most likely it could have bought him a tank of gas for his Model-T. But today it is worth $30-$40 wow ... but ... he can only get half a tank of gas for it today.
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allranger's Avatar
United States
1391 Posts
 Posted 06/12/2012  1:04 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add allranger to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
What are your thoughts after this?






Greenprint... seriously. A lot of what you post sounds like you are trying to run a get rich scam or something.

If you want to make money off of coin then fine. But realise you are talking about speculating and not investing.

If that is the way you want to do the hobby that is fine. There is a lot of people that like doing this (and not just with coins).

But you are going to have to do some leg work. Not just magically getting a quarter ton of circulated crap from a bank and getting billions at some undetirmed later date.

If it was that easy everyone would do it and then it wouldn't be worth any money.

If you want to buy coins cheap now with the intent of flipping them at some point in the future (and there is nothing wrong with this) here is the secret:

Find something that is cheap and undervalued now that collectors in the future will want and greatly desire.

That is all. It is that simple.

In your previous senario. Why would someone pay a lot of money for a bunch of crappy and corroded zinc pennies. They are probably not going to pay top dollar for something like that.

You need to look at trends, mintages, errors, etc. Here are some examples:

1. Buying coins from up and coming industrial nations. You can probably purchase a whole bunch of mint condition coins from a country that is not a world power for extreamly cheap. The idea being that after they have an industrial revolution and get a growing middle class, down the road people will have more disposible income and you will have a larger base of collectors.

However, there can be problems. What if you hoarded the wrong and undesirable stuff? What if the "next world super power" pettered out? Decades ago everyone thought that the Philippines were going to be the next big country in the world. They are a trash heap today. It didn't pan out. I can buy mint condition Philippine coins by the pound for 8 bucks at coin shops. Unless they are silver then it is pretty much spot price for them. Sure there are some highly collectible coins from the Philippines but nothing like if a large market base would have developed.

2. Collect common coins that are conditionally rare. There are several threads already about this. During certain years there were no mint sets produced. Amida17 aluded to this idea when commenting on the early BU zinc cents. There are billions of zinc cents out there, but most of them are in really bad condition. A lot of people think that in a few decades there will be very few left that are in a collectible condition.

3. Hoard some sleeper coins. Sleeper coins are coins that have collecting potential put are not heavily collected yet. Jbuck has a tread about Newfoundland coins. Newfoundland coins are largely ignored by most Canadian collectors and they also have low mintages. I sometimes find them in the junk bins. Some of them were minted in the 40's so they are not that old so a lot of people don't consider them "rare" or "classic" or whatever. There may be potential there.... Or they may not be and maybe everyone will hate Newfoundland in the future.

4. Low mintage modern coins. Some of the modern commemortive dollars have very low mintages. If you got some uncirculated stacks of those they might pay out. The fractional platinum coins have very low mintages. There are different finishes on coins that are limited (matte, satin, etc).

5. Collect already rare coins in high grade. If the coins are already rare and there is already a market base this may be a good option. People will probably collect U.S. coins for years to come. Or the whole economy could tank next year and the whole market for U.S. coins could fail and never recover. It could happen. No nation last forever. I find coins in the junk box all the time from nations that once ruled the world. You can buy a lot of Roman coins that were worth a days wage at the time for.... get this.... about a days wage today. Almost 2000 years and it has only kept up with inflation. Of course there are more collectable ones but you get the point.

If you want to sell you coins for a lot of money in the future you have to do the work. Look at population reports from different grading companies to find oportunties. Look for low mintage coins. Find sleeper coins. Find undervalued coins. Look at the cycles of the market, etc., etc., etc.

That will be a better way than just getting a quarter ton of a bunch of crappy and rotted zinc cents and sitting on them.
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Owassokie's Avatar
United States
622 Posts
 Posted 06/12/2012  1:21 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Owassokie to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
GREENPRINT,

I don't even know where to start my man. Its good that your thinking about your future and the best way to invest/save. There are issues with your thoughts on forecasting potential returns. But more importantly, the 'constants' your using to forecast returns aren't good. Like I said, I don't know where to even start so I won't try. Maybe someone a lot smarter than me can provide more detail.

I'd suggest doing some study and research on investment vehicles, inflation, metal values, expected returns, average returns, average interest rates, etc... When doing your research, don't get stuck on one book, person, or website, drinking the koolaid of just one groups thoughts on investing. You'll have the high risk high reward philosophy, Slow and steady conservative philosophy, Metal Bugs philosophy, teotwawki philosophy, and so on... Its likely that no two people will come to the exact same conclusion on investing. Based off your posts, I'd suggest doing more research before determining your path to saving/investing/retirement.

OO
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Finn235's Avatar
United States
6130 Posts
 Posted 06/12/2012  1:54 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Finn235 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Unless zinc takes an unexpected price hike or the mint begins systematically destroying circulated cents, this is not an investment that will pay off in the next hundred years. Wheat cents are barely worth anything now, and you have to remember that the 1982 saw production on the scale that you could give several to every human being currently alive and still have some left over. Everything is worth something given a long enough time frame, but only when it becomes rare or scarce.

I inherited from my grandfather a commemorative token/penny for some of Britain's victories during the napoleonic wars. Thinking it was surely worth quite a bit, I looked it up to find that it currently books for about $5, due to the excessively high mintage of that coin. That is nearly 200 years later.

Hoarding '09 pennies may be a worthwhile investment, along with choice uncirculated memorial cents. But hoard everything, and you will spend more just to get it out of your basement than your profits on any sales.
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IndianGoldEagle's Avatar
United States
36770 Posts
 Posted 06/12/2012  2:24 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add IndianGoldEagle to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
We are in uncharted territory as a country and world for that matter. The amount of debt is at historic highs. There is no way it can get paid off other than a complete reset. The inflation numbers are pure fantasy right now as they are tweaked to make politicians look better. Any hard asset is going to out perform money sitting in a devaluing dollar. That includes per-1982 copper cents and all nickels which are 75% copper.
I have been tossing pre-82 cents and all nickels that I get in change in a tub for years. It is money that I don't miss and some day these items will be traded by the bag just like 90% silver coins. Today saving copper cents and nickels is like being in 1965-66 and tossing silver coins in a bucket.
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enworb's Avatar
Australia
4411 Posts
 Posted 06/12/2012  2:25 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add enworb to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Honestly, scrap the whole idea of hoarding large quantities of crappy circulated cents.

As others have suggested perhaps look into certain dates and or very high grade coins.

Other than that i'd give up your get rich plans around hoarding cents.

You mention in your OP that you were thinking of $1000 to cash in for $4000 in 40 years time. Over the course of 40 years do you really think youre going to give a crap about $3000. Imagine carting them between houses if you decide to move

Hoarding any old pennies and not targeting which ones you keep is a plan old stupid/idiotic idea.
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