On Rarity And Surviving Populations Of Ancient Coins.

I would much rather have a nicely struck ancient in top condition, to a poorly struck great rarity, that has sustained a lot of wear.

Sel, I couldn't say it better myself.

just because there were more made doesn't make it less rare, I would say the rarest is the one with the least remaining, better looking coins!

I don't know about "dead horse", but if you're interested, some old discussion of the topic can be found here and here, for example. For discussion on modern coin survival rates, try threads like this one and this one.


"Rarity" is not a fixed-in-stone formula that can be applied across the board to any numismatic series; it is a relative term, the absolute meaning of which for any given series depends on supply and demand in that particular coin series.

Ideally, rarity is a measure of how easy it is to obtain an example of the coin in question on the open market at any given moment. If every dealer you know of that stocks coins in that particular series has at least one in stock and some of them are selling them in bulk quantities, they're "abundant", not "rare". If there are dozens of them for sale on ebay and you can walk into just about any coin shop in the land and they'll have one in stock, you could call it "common". If only one or two come up for sale per year by the big auction houses, then you can consider it "rare". If only one or two have ever been seen for sale at any time anywhere in the world in the past couple of decades, then you can consider it to be "extremely rare".


Ancient coins are, as I said in one of the threads I linked to earlier, a bit like fossil fuels. There's only a finite amount of them out there, and as our detecting technology advances the number of coins and hoards that remain undetected will fall faster and faster. But right now, we're still on the upward slope, with the number of available coins still increasing exponentially.

One of the main mitigating factors in preventing us from reaching "peak coins" yet is the archaeological equivalent of environmentalists: countries with strict anti-looting laws and severe restrictions on the excavation, sale and exportation of ancient coins. As a result, many countries are having their coins excavated at a much slower rate that strict free-market capitalism would otherwise dictate.


There are certain series in which large hoards were found and sold off, making that series temporarily common for a while until the values drifted back to more historic levels. And the current sites of major find activity also have a bearing on the relative rarity of certain types.

For example, back when virtually every ancient coin on the market in the English-speaking world came from England, London-mint Late Romans were relatively common. They are relatively scarcer today, but I think this is mainly from an oversupply of Eastern European mint coins (Siscia and such) since the collapse of Communism has opened up a formerly closed market and encouraged "free market" excavating and looting in those countries which have neither the will nor the resources to implement and enforce strict anti-looting laws. In other words, London coins may "seem" to have become scarcer in recent decades, but it is largely an illusion caused by Siscia coins having become far more common than they used to be.


The internet certainly makes finding and buying coins much easier. It's also much easier for the people that find the coins to sell them directly to the world, and for collections to be sold back onto the market. And people trying to sell even the most obscure items can find the half-dozen or so people in the world that might be interested in it relatively easily.

Wow great reads guys thanks.. It good to hear from you guys, thanks Doug, David, Sel now Warren wow awesome. I never know what to say when guys ! Thanks for your time.