PCGS Value Guide?

BTW...prices in my previous post do incude the buyer's premium.

DCV,
I like your statistical approach......though I need to interject here. What kind of time span does your data cover? Heritage archives lists prices for coins that have sold for over the last 10 years. Its not entirely fair to compare the price a coin sold 10 years with what it is "currently" listed in the guide. Even if you look in the RedBook, some coins have increased dramatically over a period of a few years, plus there is that little thing called inflation. I think it would be a mostly fair comparison if all these coins sold in 2008. I'm not defending the PCGS price guide, as I agree it is inflated; I just dont think it is as much as perceived here...though I do think that super-high grade coins in general are over-valued. I'm happy with an MS-62 for ANY coin, but that's just me. :-)

No problem dcv. I have learned sooooo much from folks on this site. And have learned some pretty important lessons regarding coins overall, some rather expensive regretfully. I still have a bunch to learn too. :-) If it is only over 3.5 years, then there probably isn't too much of a change, though I'm not up to date on SLQ trends. It astonishes me that people pay thousands of dollars for an additional point on the MS-scale; when most of the time the change in quality is barely perceptible. I recently purchased a 1930 near full head in AU/BU condition with a gorgeous candy orange tone for my type set. I paid $80 for it and couldn't be happier. :-)

I use PCGS price guide as one of several resources -- the high-end potential price/cost. One component of my understanding of their pricing (because the guide shows ups/downs in coin values) is that those prices, while high, also reflect what the market is or may bear as reported by PCGS-authorized dealers.

Most PCGS values are higher than Numismedia and the Red Book...most...some are the same.

I cant simply be cynical about PCGS and allege their prices are solely based in attracting services.

In our town, three of the largest supermarkets are owned by the same parent company; yet, the cost of the same can of beans differs from store to store.

Go figure; do the math; shop wisely; be realistic.

Well I have learned a lot here and have seen several different perspectives on this issue. Despite the fact that most all seem to agree that the PCGS prices are higher than most other sources (even if you differ on the reasons) I still find myself heading there whenever I need to assess a value. Maybe it is because it is fairly complete and well laid out. I know that in my mind I tend to factor in a 20%-25% reduction assuming I would probably not often buy, or be able to sell, a coin (especially raw) for the prices listed.

I guess I think of it like the sticker price for a car. No one really disputes its accuracy but everyone knows you can probably get it for less. It is a standard or a guideline and every once in a while a car (I know certain years and models of Honda were like this) was in such demand that people were paying sticker price and were on waiting lists to buy the cars. I suspect that this is also true of coins and PCGS prices. Demand is really what ultimately will determine the value of a coin and I am happy to know that people are actually buying the coins that please them personally, rather than just buying a slab sticker.

I like PCGS as sort of the "MSRP" or "LIST" price for coins. I think it is a great guideline and as I get more experience, I will be able to hone the mathematical formula in my head to make these prices more useful and realistic in any given circumstance.

Thanks to everyone for some very enlightening insights.

Jaobler, I think I understand what you are saying but the list is not sorted in chronological order of date sold but in ascending order of price realized. At the time I did this I had no clue the date sold would even be significant, so I sorted them this way just to more easily see the flow of the price range.


...Or did I misunderstand you completely? (Sorry, I can get pretty dense sometimes.)

I can agree with whoever said that they're too low in some places, too high in some. I've seen a lot of coins go for above PCGS/red book, some for far below. On ebay, that is. It depends on many factors; how many people are watching it, time of day, etc. I'm no expert, but I generally consider 66% of PCGS price guide to be a great deal. 75% of a midpoint between PCGS and RedBook is also pretty good in my eyes. But it's hard to tell. My Red Book is 2008 and I'm aware it's already what....like 18 months outdated? I guess for slab candidates I could use it fully as a guide, but only those really. For non-slab candidates I'd side more with the red book/general observations.

I'm sure this issue is far more complex than I am making it, though.

I believe this first reply was right on the money! Summed up nicely!

Personally I don't particularly care for the tgc's. That being said, I don't have any single "high value" coins as of yet. I agree with what "David Bowers" often states in his writings in Coin World. Something to this effect... that there is something lost in the coin closed inside a plastic holder. Not by any means his exact words but this is what I extrapolate from his writings.

What others have stated here regarding reasons to have certain coins graded by pcgs or ngc or others does make tremendous sense. I am sure in time I will be submitting coins to be sealed up in plastic holders. Heck I have bought slabbed coins from ngc pcg and others just for the comfort of knowing that I was buying what I was seeking. I do as others have mentioned compare the more frequently purchased raw coins and use the slabbed coins for comparison.

One comment made about reading and attending classes is an excellent suggestion. I have done plenty of reading and have yet to attend one of the grading classes offered at the big shows or at the ANA seminars. I would just love to take one of those classes in just a matter of time and money of which of late I have little of either.

What do you all think of coin worlds price guide. I think they too are inflated! I believe the grey sheets would be best for a price guide. Or better yet use the teltrade or heritage as a guide. If graded coins are what you are buying.