Silver Down To $20.76!

Gold didn't drop $85, the dollar became stronger.

Gold is $135 cheaper than six weeks ago.

@AllSeasons.... "Anyway, my thinking is that the market will eventually capitulate to the Fed's interest rate hikes, and likely result in another GFC event. That would probably crash the price of paper silver, which is used to pay for margin calls in the stock market. When the Fed eventually eases again, that would send the price of silver and gold soaring again. The one thing I'm not sure about is the timing."

To finish my thought.... We're still in the early innings of interest rate hikes implemented by the Federal Reserve, which ultimately the purpose is to cause a recession. There's ongoing bull/bear debates, whether or not we'll actually enter a recession or if we do.... just how detrimental or not, the outcome will be. The housing market (IMO) has been the first real indicator, that reflects the Feds tightening/higher interest rates are having a desired effect, (higher rates/mortgage, less affordability, etc.)

In regards to the stock market, the first "Earnings" report of the year for all publicly traded entities, will be released at the end of March 2023. This particular earnings period, will be for the 4th quarter (Oct-Dec '22), & will indicate if the Feds tightening is having any effect on consumer spending. IMO, this round of earnings will not show a significant decline in consumer spending, due to the holiday shopping/spending, people still having stimulus money, end of covid restrictions (allowing people to travel), etc.

I'm assuming by the 2nd or 3rd quarter of 2023 is when the numbers will most likely indicate the Fed is having a significant impact in slowing the economy, which leads to the "timing" aspect. If there is no negative catalyst in the short term (3-6) months, the price of silver will move w/ the dollar. I've also noticed if the market goes higher, so does the prices of silver & vice versa. IMO, silver & gold act more like securities, than commodities. Unless you're trading on technicals, trying to catch a short term bounce is not recommended. If I were you, I'd suggest waiting for a pullback in the market, as some analysts are suggesting the inevitability that *sometime in 2023*, the S&P500 aka $SPY (at the very least) the market will retest the previous year lows of 3,600 or roughly a -9% drop from here. If that comes to fruition (and I believe it will) that might be a the better time to start a position.

This is just a general response, not geared towards any poster in particular, but mostly vents my frustrations towards the Fed. A lot of it has to do with the "strength" of the US dollar, compared to a basket of other fiat currencies. The "strength" of the US dollar, as measured by the DXY index, is in turn largely dependent on the Fed rate. Sure, there are other factors, like other central banks buying, such as China and India, but a lot of it has to do with the USD itself. When the DXY was 115, that's when you had the big drops in gold and silver. The DXY really shouldn't be correlated with gold and silver prices, because it's all relative to other fiat currencies that are also being inflated away, but that's the way it is, unfortunately. Now that the Fed is going to keep hiking and keep the rate higher for longer, because they don't really have a handle on the inflation that they unleashed by pumping trillions into the economy, the market is finally waking up to this fact. So it is my belief that things are going to keep crashing, and the bubble is going to keep popping. We're headed towards a deep recession and/or a high inflationary environment for the next few years, depending on whether the Fed has the balls to keep fighting inflation. As you can tell, I'm not a fan of the Fed or Jay Powell, or the thousands of expensive PhD's they have on staff, who got every single prediction wrong, but keep lying to the American public regardless. I'm really mad at the Fed, because they are punishing the savers with inflation, a.k.a. hidden tax; they're punishing seniors who live on a fixed income; they're punishing everyday middle class Americans who were taught a penny saved is a penny earned. They reward the rich and the gamblers, and create the severe income inequality that is leading to social unrest. They say money is at the root of all evil, but the Fed is sleeping pretty close to it.

OK, I'm going to get off my high horse. Usual disclaimer applies, as this is not intended to be financial advice, so take everything I say with a grain of salt and please do your own research. My opinions are solely that of my own, and do not represent the views of this forum or any other entity.

(Allseasons) I agree with you completely ,the big problem is what is happening in the U.S. is happening in other counties around the world . Unfortunately they are all following the same formula.

@thq Wow, you've actually done the correlations, which is pretty cool. Just to clarify, did you take the first week of every year from 2006 to 2023, and did a linear correlation with the price of gold in the same week of each year, for a total of 8 data points? If so, I would probably do that a little differently, because to me, there was a clear correlation between DXY and gold/silver price over the last year or so. I would take the daily DXY and silver/gold price for each of the last 365 days, and then do a linear correlation on that larger data set. I suspect a much stronger correlation based on that.

hfjacinto.... What is your opinion on buying the $SLV to have exposure to silver? I know you understand what the SLV is but for those that do not, the SLV is the silver tracking stock/etf, which nearly mirrors the price per ounce 1:1, so 1 share would essentially be 1 ounce of silver. Considering the SLV is $19.27 pps, it is well under the $20 spot price the OP suggested he would buy physical.... would the current price of the SLV not be a good entry point? If not.... when might be a better pps to buy in? Thanks.

BTW, from a technical perspective.... it appears the slv is bouncing off the $19 support level in the post I mentioned the other day. Should have bought the $20.50 March 24th expiration Calls I was looking at, B/A = .05 x .06, today they're .14 x .15., oh well.