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Brinks Pulling Silver? Sure Seems Like They Are

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Broseph's Avatar
United States
979 Posts
 Posted 12/11/2012  11:54 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Broseph to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
You're saying you believe numbers lie, not the people? That seems odd...

Never the less, These coins have been worth more than their face value for around 50 years. Brinks isn't the only company that could cull with machines. And between them all, do you really think they have only cycled as little as 10%? 50%, or even 80%? I'm not saying they just dump the coins back in... However, when CRHs return coins, that actually does essentially happen with halves in particular.

I mean, these companies have the same coins circulate so much, you can see it from people getting their own spray painted coins back (I do not do this or support it! Just an example). Thats why we use the term "circulate," because it's all the same money going around and around in a circle.


Also, the post above your's is amazing evidence that culling for silver doesn't happen. There are other stories like his on this forum and youtube. Seeing people open brinks rolls with good bits of silver in them makes me really question if culling really happens. I mean, how could it?

We could actually use one of these known silver values to calculate the amount of silver that would been in the load of half dollars BEFORE being culled.

All we need for the calculation is
1. The number of silver someone finds
2. The accuracy of the sorter

Since we can consider rarities like finding half of all coins silver as being outliers, we will use a more common number. Lets assume someone opened a brinks box and found 3 silver. Not unheard of, so a fine number to show my point

Since the sorter accuracy is unknown, we can make multiple scenarios, one with 95% and 99% accuracy.

That means we will simply get a range of possible amounts that the load of halves may have had.

First, if the accuracy was 95% leaves us with 5%, the decimal for of the remainder would be .05 (5% in decimal form)

The reciprocal of .05 is 20. 3 silvers found x 20 = 60
To show the reverse math incase anyone didn't follow,
60 x 0.05 = 3
So after sorting a pile of 1000 halves with 60 silvers, you find the 3 remaining due to inaccuracy.

Do you really think that there is still THAT much circulating? Maybe. The numbers can't tell us that.


More on that later, lets continue.

99% accuracy would give us a remainder of 1%, 0.01 in decimal form, the reciprocal being 100

3 silvers found x 100 = 300

If the machines were 99% accurate, 300 silvers were in that pile before sorting.

So the question is, how much silver do you think is still out there? 60 per 1000? 300 per 1000?
Do you think modern machines have closer to 95% accuracy, or 99%?

I certainly think 95% would be low for this day and age. 1 mistake for every 20 coins? Seems unacceptable.

For fun, let's crunch the numbers for XavierofGreens find. He found over 30 rolls of silver in 3 boxes. About 130 per box.

95% accuracy on his find would mean about
130 x 20 = 2600 silvers sorted before giving Xavier his plunder!

Hard to find an explanation for something like this.

You could assume the machine broke for a day and stopped culling correctly, but do you really think brinks culls over 10 rolls of silver out per box and just had a momentary lapse for our buddy to be rained upon with silver?
Edited by Broseph
12/12/2012 12:51 pm
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Owassokie's Avatar
United States
622 Posts
 Posted 12/13/2012  11:26 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Owassokie to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Broseph, Seriously man. You're wearing me out.

"Your saying numbers lie and people don't"

No one said this. I doubt anyone else came to this conclusion. Try for just a minute to forget your gun/people analogy. Now let me try to explain again. Numbers are not guns. A number is a representation of a person's set of assumptions and calculation. You can't juxtapose the two and make them work for your analogy.

This has no where else to go but down so this will be my last communication about numbers killing guns:)

OO


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trdhrdr007's Avatar
United States
2335 Posts
 Posted 12/13/2012  12:52 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add trdhrdr007 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Interesting discussion, especially the math. I agree that the calculations shown are based on certain assumptions. That doesn't mean they are incorrect. The basic premise is that if Brinks is culling silver with a machine that is reasonably accurate then all the silver would be culled in a relatively short period of time.

The only way to dispute that statement is to assume that there is a never ending supply of new coins while simultaneously assuming that Brinks lets many of those coins go through the factory without being culled. Both of those assumptions are highly unlikely, bordering on impossible.
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XavierOfGreen's Avatar
United States
2589 Posts
 Posted 12/13/2012  1:09 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add XavierOfGreen to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
There is no possible way that brinks is culling silver, if it was culling silver I never would have been able to get a box of halves processed by brinks in which over 60% of the halves in the box were 90% silver. I found 30 rolls in one single box, the other two boxes produced about 5 rolls each, so your statistical analysis above is way off.
Edited by XavierOfGreen
12/13/2012 1:16 pm
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Broseph's Avatar
United States
979 Posts
 Posted 12/13/2012  3:05 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Broseph to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I only meant that numbers and guns are both tools that cannot act, it is the person using it that acts. But that wasn't the main point of any of my posts, so yeah lets forget about that.
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Silver Eagle's Avatar
United States
858 Posts
 Posted 12/23/2012  10:21 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Silver Eagle to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Very interesting topic - I can honestly say that I don't believe they are. I work for a major U.S bank and have direct contact daily with Brinks and Loomis. Over the years, I have made some good connections with the vault and branch managers at various locations around the country. I have asked the question to a few of these people and the answer came back to me the same every time "No way, we can't swap at all,' but they say they have seen plenty of silver over the years. Technically, the banks own the inventory, but the armored car companies are contracted to store, process,and distribute coin/currency.

I can only imagine the type of security these buildings must have in order to deter theft. Take Loomis for example, they are contracted by the FED to house and process coin at various depots across the country. Thus, I'm sure they are subject to gov't audits, which are far more grueling than internal audits. I would love to see what would happen, if an auditor viewed on video, an employee swapping out coins from their pocket from coins being processed - it wouldn't be good.

My opinion is that because of the price of silver, more roll/box hunters are doing this now than in years past. These coins haven't been produced in over 40 years and the supplies remaining are definitely limited. If the armored car companies or gov't began pulling silver, very few of us, if any at all, would find anything.

Just 7 years ago - I was pulling 30 to 40 pieces per box, but have seen a steady decline since. I remember after about 2 years of searching I got a few skunks and was baffled because I'd never had that happen before. Now, it is common. But, like most here, the thrill of the hunt is ingrained in me and I love how you really never know what you will find. Happy Hunting to all
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fistfulladirt's Avatar
United States
4333 Posts
 Posted 12/23/2012  11:27 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add fistfulladirt to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I'm getting more silver now than back in the silver run in '79/'80, especially with dimes. As a teen I was buying from the bank, and I was hitting the dimes good...don't recall pulling more than a few. I've found hundreds in the last few years though. Silver is constantly being dumped from collections and theft of collections.
When I listen to LED ZEPPELIN...so do my neighbors...
Roll hunting since '77
Dirt fishing since '72
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lincolncentguy's Avatar
United States
809 Posts
 Posted 12/23/2012  1:33 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add lincolncentguy to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I cant believe you guys are still talking about this...the question was...is brinks pulling silver?....and the answer is yes they are....lets close this.
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United States
860 Posts
 Posted 12/23/2012  5:43 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add JonNickelCollector to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I think the problem is that there are an ever increasing number of coin collectors (new collector out-numbering deceased collectors) and a static total number of silver coins. Thus the number of silver coins in circulation keeps decreasing. I believe Nickelsearcher refers to this as "coin obsolescence".
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Silver Eagle's Avatar
United States
858 Posts
 Posted 12/23/2012  7:25 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Silver Eagle to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Lincoln - What proof do you have they are pulling? I've been curious about this for years, but still manage to consistently find silver. If they were pulling - how come so many of us here are finding silver with the spot rate of silver being decently high?

Fistfull - I agree that silver is making its way back into circulation, just not like it used to be with halves.

I would love to close this and enjoy the theories/input and opinions that all have made. I have made strong contacts over the years in the banking industry and believe what they tell me. A friend of mine used to work for Brinks and she even told me 'they would never allow employees to cherrypick silver.' It just wasn't allowed and that employees could be fired if ever caught doing this.

On another note (to further explain the idea of them not pulling) - about a month ago another friend asked me if I could possibly get him a $500 bill from one of my contacts. I called one of my contacts just for fun to see if anything like that is ever turned in. She said maybe every few years, but it is rare. Oddly enough, she did say they had a $5,000 bill pass through about 6 years ago, which was sent out the FED to be destroyed. I asked her why no one took it and she simply replied 'it is not their money, but the customers(bank) and that they have to abide by the customers requests.

darn - I wish I could've had access to that bill It would've been something great for the collection!

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XavierOfGreen's Avatar
United States
2589 Posts
 Posted 12/23/2012  8:15 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add XavierOfGreen to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
The logistics companiess do not pull silver, bank tellers definitely do. But with the way things are set up at logistics companies, there is no way to pull it (unless its outright theft essentially).
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lincolncentguy's Avatar
United States
809 Posts
 Posted 12/24/2012  12:51 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add lincolncentguy to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Hi Silver Eagle..Im sure you guys are finding silver in your areas..I have posted many times on this subject...what I'm saying is they pull silver in my area..I dont even search half dollars because I know for sure they pull all the silver..I dont want to get anyone in trouble..but I know at the local Brinks five of the six gals that work in the office told me straight up they pull silver from half dollar boxes..but I will say I have found silver in dimes,but its very rare..
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Broseph's Avatar
United States
979 Posts
 Posted 12/25/2012  08:24 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Broseph to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
The discussion isn't "is brinks on some area somewhere pulling silver"
Some people are trying to say that brinks as a corporation is using sorting machines to pull silver on a wide scale.
The discussion is more about peoples reasons for believing whether or not they do or not, since no one really knows but brinks it seems.
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