Silver Broke The $30 Barrier

Im on board with the new lows and have said I believe the current prices arent sustainable long term long before he came to the board, though I probably have different reasons. That said the economy is marginally better at best and basically in the same place it was before we spent trillions to "get it moving".

My opinion is based on three things.

History
Investors
Economy

History has seen these spikes (and even bigger ones taking into account the value of the dollar) and theyve all come down at some point.

The big investors do so to make money. Right now thats not happening. Its to close to its top point and theyd be better off in other things right now.

Then the economy which has been stagnate forever. With the new taxes people have less disposable income which means less buying, and a lot of buyers (especially preppers) will reach a point where they will eventually say I have what I need or I have enough. Then theres the people who bought in the 40s that may just be done with it all together with the blood bath theyve taken on it.

Theres a lot of reasons people may not be as found of it in general that individually mean nothing but as a whole add up. Of course none of this applies to collectors. And Yes I know it can be hard to find but that can also be from dealers sitting on it not wanting to lose the money or them just buying less with the uncertainty. Plus regardless of whats going on ASEs are always a popular coin

I think these discussions are rather pointless, so I try to minimumally involve myself in them but, were you people not around April 2011 when silver was $49 or how about 8 months later when it hit $26 dollars. Or how about last month when it was $32

Is anyone really seeing this as anything other than a temporary buying opportunity ?
The economy is tanking let's run to PMS ? No wait, PMs are tanking, that means the economy is strong right ? No wait PM's are tanking and the economy is tanking ? Wait, that can't be right, my girlfriend is telling me to run to diamonds, that can't be right, can it ?

Yup..have you ever considered that some of this drop off may also be related to the rumour of a huge hedge fund being forced to liquidate holdings...ie added selling pressure to distort prices.

I mean analysts say Europe is improving lol...really? Auto sales for Janaury...a good forward indicator on health of consumers in Europe was lowest on record in Janaury..since stats started being kept in 1991.

What are the implications if the Euro collapses and it is still a threat. I think gold and silver would do well in this environment. Greece, Portugal, Spain, Italy, etc...all a disaster..

The spread on diamonds can be awful unless you have a reliable way to sell them. As for the silver drop, I think I'll see what a couple more days holds in store then hit the local bullion shop this weekend.

To my friends and fellow collectors,,, I love you all and I like you all even if you disagree with me. I have, in no way told anyone to do anything. I have made a suggestion to be helpful, that no one should be buying each and every single dip as PMs slide. The PMs are in a current downtrend.

Clearly, many of you take this statement to heart and feel I Am saying PMs are done. That they are going to crash. That is NOT what I am saying.

What I Am saying is the current trend for now is down, and that they have been down since November, No one that has been dip buying is ahead and this is a deadly and dangerous thing to be doing especially if you don't have deep pockets. Furthermore, what harm is there in wanting to share expertise with fellow enthusiasts and collectors? Not ONCE have I said that PMs are trash and worthless. Not once have I said they shouldn't be bought. I am simply stating the facts and reasons why PMs are going down and why waiting to buy is in your best interests.


In another post I have stated and explained the different routes we might see with PMs. Many of you feel prices cant be predicted. I am here to tell you you are wrong, even if you don't like hearing it. But don't take it personal because its not. You can indeed find pricing and patterns that show where buyers or sellers have either given in or have given way.

Now to address individual points made by my fellow coin hobbyists and PM fellows-

@Morgan- That's right, debt doesn't matter. Deficits don't matter. The USA has the BEST problem, they can get into debt and borrow at zero and then package the debt to countries like China and Japan who WANT the debt and will keep buying it. And whats the dirty little secret with debt? Well China and Japan cannot just stop buying the debt. The minute they do, well, guess what, the piles of debt they already have bought will go down in value. This country can and will always be able to print debt and borrow as they please. Period, end of discussion. Anyone who talks about how terrible the debt is ,, is just scaring the public. Finally Morgan, if you claim to trade, you would surely know that debts don't matter to the markets... tsk tsk.

@traevin- Sure can. Most recent Beige book released by the Fed. I use that one because its simple to read and has no gibberish to it. Head over to the Federal Reserves site and download the latest report. Inside it, it discusses the different regions of this country and you can see how- commercial real estate vacancies are dropping, auto sales are increasing, railroads are moving more freight, a huge oil and gas movement underway, more regional banks making loans to name a few. I highly encourage you to download the Beige book pdf file.

Also, consumer credit is on the rise. Americans are borrowing more now. There is an increase in housing, in production of building materials and the movement of it on the railroads. Just look at quarterly earnings from Visa and Mastercard and you can see the consumer is indeed spending. Are we were we need to be? No. WE just came out of a very depressing and difficult time so things will be slow but they are getting better.

The MOST telling proxy today that tells me that PMs continue their downtrend is the dollar strength today. Also, if you notice, the Fed stated that they will be in March looking at whether they need to continue QE. Finally, as soon as they minutes came out, the markets reaction was swift, it was not taken lightly as this would imply that easy money and printing of money could be starting to wind down.

Remember this- what is important is not the NEWS itself but the REACTION to the news. and well... gold and silver tanked even more with the Feds minutes.

Furthermore, if you are keeping score, the past few Fed minutes and meetings going back a few months, gold and silver have weakened each time.

Now again I repeat myself- they are in a downtrend. This doesn't mean and shouldn't be taken that they are going to zero. Solely, the markets are repricing the metals, they are unloading them and they need to settle at a different price than where they are for the upcoming economic environment which should have improved conditions.

@allranger- sorry I don't know Joe whoever that is. sounds to me like anyone that expresses a view contrary to metals is considered anti-PMs lol

@swrbxxx- thank you for showing everyone your immense lack of knowledge in trading. show me once where I have said I am a day trader. I Have said repeatedly, I am a technical trend trader. Don't know what that is, google it. BTW I am sure you do have a man crush on me from your comments, come on friend, admit it lol

@basebal21- hes close, everything comes in cycles. Markets rotate out of things. In the case of the PMs, its clear and evident their long run for now is coming to an end.

@denco7 I get what you are trying to say. However, where you are wrong is that we can only go off the past to see where buyers came in. Those prices will repeat and should and might turn into support,,, if it falls below it, tho, they become resistance. What has happened in the past doesn't mean it happens again.


I have been trading silver and gold and put money into gold from the get go. there was a clear steady uptrend, it has now been broken. I was buying it when it was making yearly highs and selling it higher.

However, the mistake being made is thinking that this is temporary. Do you really want to buy silver at 29 when its going to be lower and then chopping around doing nothing? I thought everyone wants to buy lower and have some cushion. Whats wrong with that or am I missing something?

@kavern23- I actually heard that rumor 3 times when I walked in this morning, the rumor of a blow up, it actually started in the crude pits and spread from there.. however the rumor was done purposefully as the market was declining.

As far as Europe, I understand that the data points are and have been negative. However, the ECB will also continue to print its way out of this problem. Furthermore, there is no immediate danger of an implosion. Why do I say that? Please take a look at the euro, making yearly highs. If the markets sensed danger, the FX markets would not have the euro at yearly highs and their currency strong.

NOW, if Europe did implode, we would have problems. But again, the ECB by buying bonds, doing their own form of QE has squashed the fear out of the credit markets, bringing down fear and narrowing the credit spreads. It appears they do have it under control, and equity markets in Europe also have made all time highs, thereby acknowledging the efforts of the ECB to bring a calm.

The bottom line is this- the PMs are in a downtrend. They will be coming into support. There will be a snap back. However, these moves take time to play out. There will be good deals better than now to purchase eagles and maple leafs and pandas. BECAREFUL not to buy every single dip.


BTW- let me apologize in case my wording about being a patriot didnt come out right. Let me re-phrase what I was saying- Rather than wanting this country to implode and watch PMs soar, wouldnt it be better to place our bets that no matter how difficult things get here, this country will pull through and work its way out, to bet with it and not against it.

Again, I apologize if I offended anyone, I was not making it political nor trying to offend anyone, ima sorry it didnt come out as I wanted it to the first time.

yup..that is the problem...because of the euro union they can't print as much money as some of the countries need or they should be printing. Countries like Greece and Spain...if they weren't in the euro could let their currency crash/devalue which would be a good thing...ie increased exports etc and less pressure to due budget cuts which is just making problems worse.

The Euro isn't making high's....it was way high in July of 2012 then now...still floundering. And any strength it helped due to the fact in proportion the amount of money they are printing/QE is smaller compared to others.

I am tired how media, looking at places like Bloomberg has analysts yap that data from Europe is all coming in positive. Leading the sheep.
The problems in Europe are insanely bad and lets see after some more government spending cuts happen in countries.....early in the year.

And you mention US dollar strength...pretty sure US doesn't want a stronger dollar either. No country does. You watch as currency wars start over the next 6 months.

I would be more confident in these recoveries if conditions were better...like for example oil under 75 dollars an copper under 3 bucks. Does Europe really need 115 dollar oil in such a fragile state? Look at history, never been good economic times for a sustained period of time with high oil prices in those countries.
But no politician will tackle the corrupt oil market...they let speculators run wild...driving the price.

Well, if I have any regrets at all, it's only that I didn't wait a few more hours before making my last purchase, since silver dropped nearly $1 and gold dropped about $40 soon thereafter. Story of my life, though, so I'm used to it...

Good morning all!

@kavern23- you are wrong my friend. the Euro did make a yearly high, on Feb 1st. It is not floundering, it has been a strong currency. Please go pull up a yearly chart of the euro currency if you don't believe me.

The euro zone is not collapsing and it wont. The credit spreads are down. This is all old news in fact.

I'll let you in on a something- 99% of traders don't watch CNBC or Bloomberg. Anyone on there is there talking their book to the public. The financial media and press are always days and weeks late on what they report. Ignore what you read. The reason they say things are better is because the more data comes out negative, the faster a resolution is coming to the problems and woes.

I realize its hard to understand, that, when piece of negative data after data comes out, you would think, Wow how bad are things but this is all part of a bottoming process. The Europeans will work their way out of the hole its a process a long one.

The eurozone has a long slog but the ECB has brought it under control.

There is no such thing as currency wars. that is a catch word phrase started by the media. BTW a stronger US dollar is GOOD for markets, its not an issue, markets can rise with it.