What Happens To Gold And Silver Next? Look Out Below?

WELL...

just an update to this-

we had our bounce and retracement. As it stands now, Gold is very close to make yearly lows. Should this break, I would expect a flood of selling on another leg lower, much lower than what we have had and would signal the downtrend is rather strong.

That brings us to silver. Same story here, and so long as gold dries up here, expect to get sold off as well and make yearly lows.

both gold and silver look very heavy pricewise, to the downside.

The only reprive that I see holding up gold and silver up for now is the nonsense noise hitting the airwaves in regards to the cuts, europe etc.... which is nonsense and noise. All these things will get resolved, one by one.

SO, I am expecting a couple of scenarios price wise. One being we come into areas of price support, whereupon the market goes sideways and chops around, or we simply slice past them to the downside.

the upside to this? 1- you can/could sell short silver and gold and make money as they crash lower, price wise.

2- There will be the general public who is going to give in and throw in the towel on the PMs. Hopefully everyone here has cash still to add to their positions.

Those who have been buying all these dips, unfortuntely, are going to get punished by the market as they will their recent purchases go lower from where they bought.

So that leaves us with Palladium and Platinum. The leader of the bunch, Palladium, has stalled out here for now. I would the recent price action more of the market stepping back with such uncertainty abounding at the present. It does appear palladium is trying to hold certain levels, nevertheless it has been slipping. I wouldnt take my eyes off this metal however.

Platinum on the other hand looks sick. It has given up over a month and half of its grind up. It appears to be making a slow grind lower as well before it hits support levels. Again, watch to see if these levels hold.

Pal and Plat however, should continue to do better longer term. Its just that right now, at this point, the market is facing many headwinds, mostly sentiment. Furthermore, many commods are technically very weak and this is weighing down these two metals. Therefore right now I remain on the sides in regards to pal.

Going forward, I am looking to get short gold and silver, while still being long gold.

yup you say "The only reprive that I see holding up gold and silver up for now is the nonsense noise hitting the airwaves in regards to the cuts, europe etc.... which is nonsense and noise. All these things will get resolved, one by one."

How can you say things will get resolved one by one? Nobody can predict what gold and silver will do, not you or me. But too say things will get resolved is pretty fluffy.

Big reason for weakness right now is a stronger US dollar. Will that continue..I doubt it...as eventually then US numbers will come out weaker.

A juicy stock market pumped up by the fed, is all of a sudden making people think everything is so rosy. Let's see US data a few months from now when the cuts take effect.

The problem is..loose fiscal and monetary policy...is not trickling down and helping the middle class...all it is doing is making the very wealthy more money in the stock market and other assest classes.

Japan had a struggled with low rates for how long? US could be in same boat...as how can they pull this policy....

The cuts are much more fable than anything. Theyre basically just a decrease in spending increases for the year. If anything bad comes from them its because agency is poorly run or doing it so they can say I told you so. The only area really hit by it is the DOD who can just ask for the money back in other bills or war appropriations.

Dont get me wrong the supposed recovery is a lot of hoopla right now as things are great is your super rich and if your poor youve been unaffected the benefits are still the same it is the middle class that gets hosed and will continue to be so. But if people think there is a recovery real or not purchasing will reflect that and you can get some what of one just from perception assuming the government doesn't do anything really stupid which may be to much to ask. Perception is a lot of it.

@Kav

well, I would agree half way. The price of gold and silver, its direction and trend can be predicted. Clearly, it is in a downtrend.

I would strongly disagree with you tho. The Fed is NOT juicing the markets. The Fed has provided accommodative monetary support for global economies to work out of this slowdown. it is a MYTH to think the Fed has made the markets go higher, and perhaps I cant help think that many people just would love to see a crash and global misery. That my friend, is what CB's will be working against as they have learned their lessons from letting things just run wild.

There is REAL evidence that things are picking up. Everything from railroads and trucking, show solid fact and evidence that this global economy, while soft is slowly gaining traction. To chose to ignore those facts would be foolish and would only allow ones personal flawed opinion to rule the day.

Europe is being solved. This budget nonsense is just that, nonsense and scare tactics used to keep everyone going in circles.

I will repeat myself, things are being resolved. Anyone looking for another epic crash is going to have to sit and wait and wait and wait....

Economic data continues to get stronger, not weaker. BTW, you are wrong, the correlation between a "stronger dollar" and lower prices in silver and gold is not whats knocking down PMs. PMs are now selling down because big institutional money is selling and moving on to other assets that represent an improving economy.

Finally, there is no way you can compare japan to what the US is doing. Thats apples to oranges my friend.

Are you serious in saying this, "I would strongly disagree with you tho. The Fed is NOT juicing the markets. The Fed has provided accommodative monetary support for global economies to work out of this slowdown. it is a MYTH to think the Fed has made the markets go higher, and perhaps I cant help think that many people just would love to see a crash and global misery. That my friend, is what CB's will be working against as they have learned their lessons from letting things just run wild."

How is the fed not juicing stock markets? Do you understand, because of near zero interest rates, large entities with cash are looking for returns. This zero rate interest environment is juicing the stock market.

Why is the institutional money all saying stimulus will be continued if not increased all around the world....would this be happening if everything was as rosy as you were saying.
Lol, how is the Euro doing...is it still reaching highs? Agh, but you don't mention that.

@kraven

Again, my friend... Yes, the Fed is NOT making the markets rise. I want you to realize this- the market looks forward, many times 3-6 months out. SO while you might be having a hard time grasping how better economic conditions are indeed making a positive push because you don't see it NOW, the markets are reflecting this by the fact that key industry groups and companies are rising in share price. Biz is indeed picking up for them.

Just the mere fact that railroads and transportation stocks are rising and are market leaders bodes WELL for the economy going forward.

The only thing CBs around the world have done is provide stimulus and policy that has helped businesses gain traction, if even slowly. Housing is no joke in its recovery. Will it go back to its glory days? Of course not, but it is gaining and has gained traction and that's helping. CBs around the world will continue to do this until they see fit.

BTW- I want to correct you in another wrong assumption you make. Not all institutions have placed money in the equity markets. There are millions and billions of dollars STILL parked in bonds. I realize front page news tells the public that a zero rate policy has everyone in the markets but that's not the case. We have hundred million dollar funds that have yet to join the markets rise. Many have been skeptical of the markets rise but that happens in markets.

So my friend, whats it going to be. Have the entire world crash into doom and gloom? Would that make you happy? Or better that CBs provide stimulus until things catch? Would you wish for a repeat of the Great Depression of the 1920s?

Now for your euro comments. the euro has hit yearly highs in the early part of Feb. Sure its down. However, is it crashing? No. Is it going to crash? Sure doesn't look like it to me... and if you think this recent drop should cause panic and fear, well then I can tell you have no clue of how currencies work. IF there was REAL fear in markets over the euro drop, our LONG BOND would be rising, instead, it is dropping. No one SINGLE asset class should be seen as setting off an alarm bell and sure way to say with all assurance that there are problems ahead.

As far as your comments regarding housing, I will tell you loans are going out. Some of the market leading stocks now are money center banks, regional banks, mortgage processing companies. They are leaders because the market has already gotten wind and knows their business is growing and will be growing in the future. Again, JUST because you don't see it now does NOT mean it isn't happening.

Finally, the issue of debt. I will repeat myself: The US can do what other governments cannot do- sell their debt and keep printing it and borrow at zero. No other country has this ability. So my friends, deficits don't matter, this debt will be packaged and sold off and this country will continue to borrow at zero.

There are many good good things that this country has that will cut back on debt. But for the most part, this talk about debt and budget cuts is nothing but political fodder and nonsense. In the coming months we will all look back and see it was nothing but noise. The same with Europe. We will look back and say.. what noise that was.

Whats all this mean for silver, and gold? I think they continue to march lower, its clear they are in a downtrend, a strong one. I feel once all this noise is removed, you will see silver and gold drop even more. Don't expect prices to rise until you see institutional support and buying.

IMHO, and again, I am not into predicting and the market will always be right, and the tape is what I adhere to,, but I think eventually gold and silver will stop dropping and then go into a long range of sideways chop, a no mans land where the price goes no where.

Longer term, and no matter what really, EVERYONE should have some gold and silver put aside. For collectors such as myself, lower prices will let us get more of the coins we have been after. I know I will continue to buy proof gold and silver eagles even if the price drops.

and to circle back here... my whole point in this thread was to point out to my fellow hobbyists here, and I LOVE you all even if you don't agree with me... that we can all get better deals on silver and gold if we give it a bit more for prices to come down. I want you all to get the MOST out of your dollars.... I know I certainly want to buy at the best price instead of the first price drop.

And I suppose if PM instead goes on an uptrend, your going to tell us you predicted that. Nobody has a clue exactly what is going to happen.

I think all this talk of more stimulus around the world...and I think it is needed....will bode well for Silver. For some reason, intelligent people are all forecasting more stimulus is needed as recovery is sluggish...yet you don't seem to grasp that the recovery is sluggish and could be years away for normalcy.

@Kav

I think you are missing the whole point of my posts. In no way have I ever stated I am making predictions so please don't put words in my mouth.

I don't know if you are blinded because you don't know how comprehend what you read or chose to purposely say that because you feel I am against gold and silver.

Again, I am NOT in the prediction biz. YES, the market gives all sorts of clues on trends by the price action and volume. I have not said that PMs are crashing. I have not said its going to X dollars and that's it.

I am a technical trader. I trade on trends. Trends are based on price action and behavior, and volume. Do I know what the final price will be for silver and gold to the penny? NO. Will I know where it has stopped going down and finds price support, yup, you better believe it. I;lll know when its starting to act different. I do this everyday of the week for a long time now.

Will I be able to spot when it starts back into an uptrend. YUP, you better believe it, I will know by price and volume when its starting to run up again.

I see and deal with many different asset classes everyday and they all exhibit the same type patterns. Gold and Silver are in typical downtrends as of now.

AGAIN, I repeat myself because many of you do NOT get it: I am NOT predicting an EXACT price. I am not saying PMS are going to zero.

Finally, I have said, many times, CBs will continue to stimulate until it the slow growth catches and isn't needed anymore.

The bottom line is- to ignore the current price action in silver and gold and conclude it cant go lower is foolish no matter how much one feels that things are weak. CLEARLY, the markets are saying they don't see the need for holding gold and silver going forward,,, at the levels they had held. This is not my message but rather the message I am getting from the markets.

Many times as humans, because of either stubbornness or lack of knowledge, or even perhaps emotional reasons, we cling to what we believe to be true because we want it to be so, thereby ignoring the bigger picture that is supported by facts.

In this case, the facts are the markets are pricing in a recovery, even if it is slow, sluggish, tepid,,, no matter what you want to call it, things ARE improving and WILL improve.

For now, the market is saying tho, that they want to reduce their holdings of silver and gold for the time being.