What Happens To Gold And Silver Next? Look Out Below? - Page 209

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fistfulladirt Pillar of the Community United States 4333 Posts	Posted 12/31/2014 06:21 am Quote: I have nibbled on poured odd sized bars and other unique pieces, but have avoided any bigger purchases so far as I don't see much interest in silver and nothing to stop its downtrend. I figure how can I buy right now when lots of people on silver stacking forums are bearish. Once again I'll ask, I know it may be a small picture, but with this downtrend, how would one explain record ASE sales this year? When I listen to LED ZEPPELIN...so do my neighbors... Roll hunting since '77 Dirt fishing since '72 Report this Post to the Staff
yup7676 Pillar of the Community United States 3789 Posts	Posted 12/31/2014 09:56 am The buying of silver eagles at record numbers means nothing in terms of price. People all over the world continue to buy silver and yet it has not pushed the price up. I think people just think, mistakenly, that silver going lower is a great deal, which is wrong as they are ignoring completely how markets work. There is probably a wrong perception also in the public's eye that "oh this is so cheap, silver will be right back up again" and folks do get drawn in by the allure of the volatile rapid moves, much to their detriment. I wonder what happens when it finally dawns on the public that silver and gold are not racing back up to the moon but stay flat, even when they eventually stop dropping. Report this Post to the Staff
Gothic Valued Member United States 300 Posts	Posted 12/31/2014 11:01 am Fistfull, Ted Butler has a lot to say about that--you can Google Ted Butler, The Perfect Crime, for a recent article. Lots of interesting info that reminds one of the ole Hunt Brothers operation back in the day, but Butler's ideas are predicated on Silver Eagle sales staying strong for the last few years as a primary source of the current "operation." Other Sovereign silver 1 oz. rounds have also had an increase in interest over the same time. Happy New Year Report this Post to the Staff
SilverDon Pillar of the Community Canada 2360 Posts	Posted 12/31/2014 12:42 pm From our Globe and Mail, Dec. 30, 2014 Page B4 Economists: Precious metals prices are expected to do well in 2015 Julian Jessop Chief global economist, Capital Economics - London "The year 2014 closed with a focus on the oil price, but developments in other commodity markets will also be worth watching in 2015. The knock-on effects could work in either direction. We expect the price of oil to remain low. As energy is an important cost in the production and transportation of other commodities, this is one reason to expect price pressures more generally to be weak. Nonetheless, most countries - and the world as a whole - should be better off as a result of lower oil prices, notably China and India. Of the advanced economies, Japan is the biggest winner, but there should also be sizable boosts to the U.S., euro zone and Britain. The upshot is that cheaper oil should support a rebound in the prices of industrial metals as economic activity picks up. What's more, China and India are the two largest markets for gold. While inflation will be lower as a result of the fall in oil prices, global monetary policy is also likely to be looser for longer. We, therefore, expect base and precious metals prices to do well in 2015, improving the prospects for miners and the more diversified commodity economies." Sure hope this year end prognostication comes to pass. Lots of variables, the Russians not paying their foreign debt is one, Greece defaulting another. Thought this may stimulate some discussion. Edited by SilverDon 12/31/2014 12:44 pm Report this Post to the Staff
cblue New Member United States 11 Posts	Posted 01/01/2015 6:31 pm Bas- Thanks for the chart and you analysis. I don't understand all this stuff, but I appreciate you sharing. Yup- I totally agree, I believe there are still a lot of people who think that Silver and Gold will make a come back real soon. When they realize there is no quick money to be made they will sell or just stop buying. Collectors and stackers will continue to benefit from these lower prices. I am waiting for prices to go even lower in late 2015. Hope I am right. Report this Post to the Staff
Bas S Warwick Pillar of the Community New Zealand 526 Posts	Posted 01/02/2015 4:16 pm Looking at gold on the 1hr chart I can count a 5 wave down move - and that looks like an impulse move to me. IMPULSE WAVE PATTERN A term used in the Elliott wave theory to describe the strong move in an price coinciding with the main direction of the underlying trend. So chart-wise the trend looks still downward and silver is in a similar situation Report this Post to the Staff
yup7676 Pillar of the Community United States 3789 Posts	Posted 01/03/2015 2:07 pm Ok lets take a look at what gold and silver are doing. First of all let me say this, as I get asked this a ton and hear it asked and that is "what is gold and silver going to do in 2015?" To that I say, I have zero clue, nor does it matter to me what they do. I am only trading price and from there and what it does I'll know but as far as predicting, I have no clue. What I do know is it still remains in a downtrend in the context of a longer time frame and remains so until it proves other wise. While I still see the 12/1/14 overnight futures market action as an important focal point in terms of price action that could signal a change, it has a lot of work to do. With the element of time, we'll learn what gold and silver want to do. First up lets look at gold with a very simple chart, I prefer to keep things simple and just follow price, less is more and has never failed me. While I could use various indicators, time frames and other technical indicators, none of these will be correct and quite frankly way too confusing for the vast majority of the public. In fact, I was taught, that having less on your chart is the best and that has proven to be correct in my trading. First up lets look at gold. I have highlighted the 3 ranges that are immediately obvious. We have 3 boxes or ranges you could say, that are present. Take a look at the aqua lines, in between them is where gold presently is at. First thing that stands out is the price action from this past Friday, 1/2. It dumped in the AM and immediately caught a bounce and reversed, rising back into this box. I tend to see this pattern in an asset that needs more time to consolidate before making another move, whenever that is... So whats the most important thing to be watching for? Take a look at the green arrow on the lower range. That is the 12/1 overnight futures market low. To me, I recognize that as a possible sign of a change, an attempt to put some sort of floor on the price of gold. Whether it holds or not, only time can confirm that. However, it is interesting how it happened. SO again to recap, 1141 is very important in terms of price. IF that gets breached, probabilities increase that the low of the year in gold gets tested. Shorter term, if one is looking for higher prices, one step would be for gold to move higher out of its range that it is currently in. Take a look at the yellow arrow above the aqua line. Moving out of this range would be constructive. Finally, IF it can grind its way to the 1255, then things start to look even more interesting. Again, we have to be prepared for all scenarios and probabilities. One thing is clear, its going to take a lot of time for gold to make some sort of headway. All these levels above are going to offer a lot of resistance, there will be a lot of overhead supply, in other words, there will be sellers looking to unload. Therefore, as I always stress, the element of time is key, only by time will these things be worked out. On to silver now! We see exactly the same sort of thing as with gold. Several ranges are evident. Just as with gold, we find silver in a range or box. Notice how thus far it has remained well above the overnight futures market low from 12/1. Again, that is a main focal point for me. This sort of price action and how it happened has marked important turning points. What to look for going forward? First of all, if you are looking for higher prices and a sign that silver is moving higher, a break of the range between the two aqua lines higher, as indicated by the yellow arrow. If you are looking for silver to weaken, first step is to see it break the range lower that it is in now. At that point, the decline could very well be fast as there isn't much between the range it is in and its yearly low of 12/1. To recap- gold and silver remain in downtrends in a long term time frame. Shorter time frame, they are currently locked in a range or box and depending on what direction they break from this box/range, will give us clues as to what happens next. The main focal point should be the 12/1 overnight futures market low. Breaching those areas increases probabilities of new yearly lows. As always, the element of time is so so so key going forward. All the clues as to what what holds or breaks will be decided by time. In the end all we need as our guide is the price action. Report this Post to the Staff
MeadowviewCollector Pillar of the Community United States 4409 Posts	Posted 01/03/2015 2:18 pm Wow I am amazed at how little the gap between platinum and gold is, ~$10 using the Kitco charts in this sub-forum. I'm wondering will platinum and gold be worth about the same in 2015? Was there ever a time when they were valued at the same (e.g. $500 an ounce)? I guess I'll have to track price history this year and see. Thoughts, reactions. -MV Report this Post to the Staff
Bas S Warwick Pillar of the Community New Zealand 526 Posts	Posted 01/03/2015 10:30 pm Gold and Silver Prices - 100 Year Historical Chart...compares historical real (inflation-adjusted) gold and silver prices back to 1915. ... Interesting to see gold did not reach its inflation adjusted peak recently. 10 asstd charts http://www.macrotrends.net/1333/gol...orical-chart Edited by Bas S Warwick 01/03/2015 10:32 pm Report this Post to the Staff
MontanaCMR Pillar of the Community United States 606 Posts	Posted 01/04/2015 2:42 pm So it appears if the price goes lower, it might go lower. Conversely, if it goes higher, it might go higher. This is easier than I thought. Report this Post to the Staff
Bas S Warwick Pillar of the Community New Zealand 526 Posts	Posted 01/04/2015 4:25 pm Yes thats correct, and also to keep things simple we buy at the bottom and sell at the top Or we could sell at the top, and buy at the bottom. What could be easier than that? Report this Post to the Staff
yup7676 Pillar of the Community United States 3789 Posts	Posted 01/04/2015 8:19 pm Trading is very simple really. It is humans who either over complicate things or can't grasp how simple it is. Furthermore, most humans, when it comes to markets, make the mistake of deciding for themselves what the market should do or they fail to see the clues in front of them because they lack the ability to grasp, again, how really simple trading is. People become impatient, nervous, excited or bored with markets and forget that everyday the market is ready to make a move, but one will have to wait for it. As a trader who has remained profitable for years now, this is a all too common issue I see in the general public and fellow traders. Oh well, at least I am banking profits, managing risk and at the end of the day, that is all that matters. Report this Post to the Staff
Domain555 Pillar of the Community United States 1804 Posts	Posted 01/04/2015 8:55 pm yup7676 Quote: People become impatient, nervous, excited or bored with markets and forget that everyday the market is ready to make a move, but one will have to wait for it I am not too sure if these terms are even similar. When I was trading it was EGO GREED FEAR and HOPE. In that order of physio evolution-evolvment. =====>HOPE<===== was the killer ~`~`~` Report this Post to the Staff
yup7676 Pillar of the Community United States 3789 Posts	Posted 01/04/2015 9:04 pm @domain555 oh no you are absolutely right, hope, free, greed, those I was also taught and its common to hear that expression all the time with traders. Also ego is a major one. I was thinking tho more in line with the general public which receives no instruction at all in markets. They fail to grasp how simple the market is. how patience is needed to the move of importance to make itself manifest. one of the first thing traders are taught is: do not react UNTIL the market gives you confirmation. As an example, we could take any stock in an uptrend. After the stock has been running, the public says "oh this is a great stock, it will be back up, I'll buy it now". It so happens when they buy this stock, it has been pulling back for some time, however the public makes the mistake that the stock will be back up,,, and then it turns out the company is say, going to purchase another company or being sued.. and the stock has been falling because the market knew that this was going to happen,,, and there was no confirmation to buy, such as say a new fresh yearly high. but yes, hope, fear, greed, and hope are still taught as the major basic emotions commonly found and expressed in the market. Thankfully, once you become experienced, you can master these emotions and make money off those who have zero emotional control. Report this Post to the Staff
yup7676 Pillar of the Community United States 3789 Posts	Posted 01/05/2015 4:09 pm oh one thing I wanted to add over the weekend but I forgot, but again I repeat, throw out your gold/oil correlations, and... your USD/gold correlations as well. as I have said before and I speak from experiencing, they only work for so long... Report this Post to the Staff
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