|
This page may contain links that result in small commissions to keep this free site up and running.
Welcome Guest! Registering and/or logging in will remove the anchor (bottom) ads. It's Free!
To participate in the forum you must log in or register. | Author |
 Replies: 5,649 / Views: 461,315 |
|
|
|
Pillar of the Community
 United States
3789 Posts |
Ok, time to update this, I have been sidelined with work that has prevented me from doing much anything coin related...In any case, it has been a b o r I n g time period for silver and gold. However, the price action precious metals markets been pretty much mimicking whats been happening in many markets, such as in the US stock market, which has been for the most part, a range bound, go no where market since last December. The only certain thing about gold and silver prices are they remain in a solid downtrend and any attempt at breaking any downtrend is met with selling each time, followed by a counter trend rally and it starts all over again. From a trading stand point, there is really not much to be gained from a range bound market as the big money is not made in that manner. So lets look at the price action thus far with the aid of the charts. Silver I see one big sloppy range right now in silver. Any counter trend rallies fail to break higher and when silver hits key areas to break down, it manages to bounce. So keep it simple, these are the new targets: a break of 17.77 could be higher prices and a break of 15.26 could be lower prices. Later on at the end I want to discuss a few things key to these charts in both silver and gold and this current time frame we are in. In the meantime, keep an eye on if silver continues to creep closer to this lower range and should it come into that area whether a counter trend move happens and it bounces OR it manages to just slice beyond 15.26. Gold Like Silver, Gold is also exhibiting sloppy range bound price action. Again, keep it simple with an upper and lower end of the range for now. 1232 is the upper range and 1141.60 is the lower end of the range. For gold to get any sort of traction going in either direction it needs to get into one of these areas. As of late, gold has been moving lower so watch and see if it manages to get into or breach the 1141 area. Seeing how things have been going, I would not be surprised that gold manages to bounce, thus keeping this range bound market action alive. Things to keep in mindThese targets for gold and silver change constantly as each day gives us a clue as to what is going on. As a trader, on any given asset, I update my notes on price action on several time frames and update things weekly as the markets are dynamic and are always changing. An other point to stress is that even if should these areas be breached, it is not with certainty that the move sticks. In other words, suppose silver runs up higher, by the time the buying reaches the point where it is at the upper range, the move fails and sputters out. This is very common and to be expected. There is absolutely no crystal ball in trading and charts only help us reference the past but do not guarantee with all certainty what happens next. That is why we pay attention to the price action each and every day. There are no reports of any kind that can tell us what happens next, they are all old and outdated by the time of publication. I want to highlight also that we are coming into some of the most slow churn months of the year in markets here in the US. Most desks will soon be clearing traders and most participants will be leaving for vacation. Therefore, I suspect that nothing of major importance will happen with gold and silver until the market becomes more active in September. That is not to say something could happen but its doubtful, and even should September roll around, we could find gold and silver continue to just do nothing. In closing, I'd like to touch on this range bound trade we are seeing in silver and gold. It is nothing new. In financial markets, a big major portion of time sees assets doing nothing, just churning. Unlike what the financial media likes to say, time is NOT money in financial markets. Time is time and money is money. Markets have various participants and users. Many times assets do nothing because market participants have judged that they do not have enough information on hand to move money into a certain asset. Other times it is because the market is trying to either discount future changes or it sees reasons why down the road a particular asset will increase in value. This sloppy trade in gold and silver will be resolved eventually. However, the market will make its move of importance, in whatever direction that is, when it feels it is ready to do so. |
|
Valued Member
United States
194 Posts |
|
|
Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
@tbolts10
glad to be of help. Wish I could add more but going forward its going to be like watching paint dry UNLESS the market decides to take some sort of action in these upcoming slower months.
I personally am running a full book on other trades and there just isn't anything here in gold and silver to make money on that makes it worth it.
|
|
Pillar of the Community
United States
3546 Posts |
Speaking from a very non technical point of view I feel that:
US inflation is marginal,
Wage growth is virtually non-existent,
The myths & rumblings of silver and gold mining finds having been virtually exhausted seem to be receding in the preponderance of PM sales propaganda,
The majority of non-US countries 'generally' appear not to have 'exceedingly' booming economies contributing to overall worldly inflation etc.
I cannot envision PMs taking off anytime in the near future even if the US does show sign of noticeable growth/inflation. The world powers have incestuous relationships heavily relying and reacting to one another insofar as significant market-altering events.
At least for the foreseeable near term future(1 - 2 years) I anticipate PMs being an asset to possess for asset conservation in case some sort of WW3 or nuclear catastrophe (N. Korea, Iran, Russia etc.) materializes.
IMHO
|
|
Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
well here we are mid-week and... surprise, same price action as always. I had talked about a bounce and there we have it, really nothing new.
gold and silver are a boring market until they break either the upper range or lower yearly low with authority.
Until then, expect this same type of choppy price action for a while.
God, I can just imagine the commodity traders who dont have a heck of a whole lot in terms of big moves happening.
About the biggest thing moving in the commodity market is Cocoa right now and refined product,, RBOB,, in other words gasoline, trying to break higher.
The danger in buying gold and silver right now is to the downside. It would be best to just not buy much of anything and wait until we really see a move of importance, which we are not seeing....
anyways, thats all for now, I will continue to up date the thread despite the sheer nothing happening... one never knows....
|
|
New Member
United States
36 Posts |
yup, thanks for taking the time to help educate those of us who don't do this for a living
|
|
Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
@grinx76
no problemo, glad to be of help. As I said last week, wish I could say more about PMs..... but there isn't much to say, they are going no where for now.
Dig in for a boring range bound market in the coming months.....
|
|
Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
just a little up date...
if you notice going back 2 weeks...
basically where we started we ended... a range bound go no where market for now.
For this week, gold and silver are pretty much doing the same exact thing.... testing the lower ends of the range from two weeks ago and bouncing.
As a trader, I see nothing here. The only thing that changes for me is if silver breaks 15.55, a break of that would get me interesting in taking a line short for possibly lower prices.
On gold, a break of 1162.10 could bring lower prices HOWEVER at this point in time, since there has been a lot of selling going on, I would think that even if it sliced that price area, it would bounce since it has been done several days in a row.
so at this stage its really a ho-hum market....
be patient and pay attention to price however dont expect too much to happen unless the sellers have strong resolve. As always, price is the main guide, not my or your opinion. respect the price action of the market place.
|
|
Valued Member
United States
112 Posts |
Yup, thanks for all the work and the consistency of your philosophy. I strongly believe the latter is a major key to success by maintaining the discipline to not deviate emotionally. Anyway, I have a question. I'll preface it by saying it is one of speculation. However, it's been on my mind for a long time and I ponder for your perspective. I know speculation is not your cup-o-tea, but whatevs. I personally believe, based of my own study and interest, that a bubble exists in the world's major equity markets. I believe it is going to burst. Only hindsight will declare the "catalyst" (whether it be junk bonds, china, or greece etc. I don't know, but I see things as overvalued and primed to revert to a historical mean). Now, I have been waiting all year to buy coins for my collection watching with nothing but side action. I'm tempted to go ahead and make my purchases as I fear a crash in equities will lead to higher demand in prices for precious metals. So I get to my questions... 1. How do you perceive my madness? haha ;) 2. How would you expect PMs to react to a rapidly declining equity market? 3. Could global volatility bring lower prices to PMs during initial downward m trending of equities? Or could it be the opposite? Thanks again, just seeking some perspective in a complicated world  ! ! |
|
Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
@Vesper
Thank you for the kind comments, I am glad to be of help and share my experience and knowledge freely. I was taught and probably already was brought to be disciplined, patient and observant, qualities that are very necessary in trading, to survive and avoid disaster and remain consistently profitable. I was trained that markets do not work on my time but on their own time and that nothing can be trusted in markets but price action. Trust it and only it and ignore ones own feelings and the opinions of others.
When it comes to trading I have no emotions. I have no attachment to any asset. If anything, I always manage the risk and look to whether they are trending. If they are then I look to see what direction and how can I properly enter. If not, I wait patiently or look for other assets that offer opportunity.
Here are my answers to your questions as you listed them-
1- Well there's certainly nothing wrong in having thoughts and opinions about things such as markets. As you correctly pointed out, I do not speculate on such things as they do not fit in my objective of being profitable. I will speculate however based on price action and how it is trending, if it is at all. I wish to remain right, not by my opinion but to be proven right by the market.
Let me first say that crashes cannot be predicted as to when they will EXACTLY happen. Nor can anyone who says we are going to crash say that with all certainty. I have seen many many many "top callers" "doom prophets" and other pundits call crashes. None have been right.
Furthermore, crashes do NOT happen all of a sudden. As with anything in markets, it is a long process that takes time to spot and identify. I say this because the market does not show its hand all at once. Rather, when its ready to change or course, or in the case of a crash, it starts to give clues that something is amiss, that money is slowly but surely heading for the exits. This happens way in advance of the crash and there is plenty of fair warning.
We are in a clear uptrend for now,which got its start in 09. Since 09 all I have heard is that the end is near. Mind you, I have even heard this talk from those in the same field as I am, only to see them proven wrong. So thats 6+ years of top callers. None have been right.
I certainly have no idea when this uptrend will end. All I know is I have paid attention to price action since it started and have been actively profiting from the uptrend. Had I said "we have gone too far" I would have missed out on a huge chunk of this uptrend and that would have looked very bad.
All trends end, whether they are uptrends or downtrends. But trying to call the exact end to the trend is impossible. Remember, trends have strong momentum, much as a rock coming down from the side of a cliff. Trends take time to end, it is a process, which is confirmed by,,, you guessed it, price action. The price action will confirm that the trend has indeed run out of steam and ready to turn.
For now, currently, in our markets, I do not see any sort of crash nor reason to think "this is it". I have no crystal ball to say that it will continue for years to come nor do I have one that says we are going to crash soon or that the clock is now ticking.
I will say tho everyday I do check internals and look which stocks are leading us, what stocks are making yearly highs, which are making yearly lows and much more so should this uptrend start to show signs of slowing down and wanting to change I will be prepared.
2- I have no idea how gold and silver would react if the markets begin to decline. Honestly I do not know and if I guessed, I am sure I would be dead wrong.
3- Again I have no idea. Absolutely none. We have had extreme volatility since the beginning of this year and you can see that gold and silver have done nothing but continue sideways. Does this mean that this will continue? Who knows.
The only thing I can say is that correlations come and go. Some of examples of this are the old "strong dollar = lower PM prices". Thats not really true as many times this correlation breaks. In fact ALL correlations break at some point or another. There is no solid rule that says "strong dollar = weak stocks".
Again, we have to pay attention to what the markets decide on that. What happens and observing is the key and that means paying attention to price action is key.
I could go on with countless stories and comparisons of predictions in markets versus what really happens. Guess what? Predictions are always wrong in the end what was right was the price action and what it was saying.
Now there will be those who say "price is manipulated". To those individuals I would say who cares. For starters, if you believe strongly in manipulation then you should not be involved in financial markets. Furthermore, if it was manipulated why would one want to go against the tide and lose?
I hope I have answered your questions Vesper. I keep circling back to price action because it has saved my neck thousands of times, it has made me profitable and saved me from a lot of grief and vexation, when a trade doesn't work, taking the loss has saved me from big losses.
I can't tell you how many times I have either exited a trade with a loss properly because the price action was saying danger or taken a trade and profited because price was saying this is going to work out.
I cannot predict the future, I can only react to what the price action does. That is why traders are always instructed that what is important in markets is not what is said but rather how the markets react to what was said.
|
|
Pillar of the Community
United States
3546 Posts |
Quote:
...what happened to the price of silver in this forum? ...trying to understand where this discussion is going. This comment formed as a result of a a post on 12/07/2014 05:57 am. I am discussing this since its relevance still applies even six months later. This above quoted post has its merits but the other op of 12/07/2014 05:57 am also presents valid points insofar as the speculative actions in general 'artificially' placing upward pressure on non-PM commodities over a short duration, for instance. IMHO most, if not all, commodities share specific intrinsic reactionary impetuses. Another similar case in point would be when the oil cartel members collectively cut back on oil production. Their inherently greedy intent is to artificially elevate the price per barrel of oil in an effort to squeeze out more profit from all consumers. But in the more recent history these multiple attempts have been mostly short-lived with cartel members having learned from previous futile attempts to attain a 'sustainably' higher commodity price. It often seems that over the past seven to eight years when the US consumer experienced noticeably higher commodity oil prices the economy often pulled back for obvious reasons. One can likewise correlate oil commodity behavior back to lower PM prices from the viewpoint that these recent American non-inflationary times are partly a result of the aforementioned actions: 'sustained' pricey oil usually snuffed out an economic surge like stepping on a Pall Mall cigarette butt on a wet sidewalk.  On another note it's anybody's guess how the Fed will soon view the recent quarter's surge in housing in terms of putting pressure on the prime rate. But similar to the cartel members' past curtailment in oil production any sustained upward movement in this rate should serve only to 'temporarily' lift PM prices based upon a US economy whose business sector's taxation structure is among the highest and most suffocating in the world. In summary, my comments do not strive to forecast anything but are an effort to primarily lend credence to the merits of periodically referencing alternative commodities to spotlight helpful trends which can only assist to clarify a seemingly aimless PM market. |
|
Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
... more boring go no where chop sideways market action.
Since our last update and discussion from about 2 weeks ago, we pretty much are right at the same spot again.
I had mentioned this would be the case in the last update and this is a perfect example. It would be interesting to see if in this boring time period something does happen tho, many times when it seems boring, the unexpected happens.
For now tho, for this week, unless 15.55 on silver is breached and 1162 on gold on the down side, expect another boring week of nothing lol In any case, keep those two areas on your radar if you are following at home as a point of reference if we are to see any spark on the downside.
|
|
Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
I should also as an observation- a lot of silliness is being made out of Greece and Europe... all sorts of talk about a crash and doom, disaster, etc..
yet look at the very weak and pathetic price action in silver and gold.. barely up...
that says a lot about gold and silver and their current state as viewed by the markets world wide.
|
|
Pillar of the Community
United States
5856 Posts |
I agree with Yup! The fund managers has a field day.
|
|
Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
Silver looks very weak, like it wants to roll over. We broke the other day the 15.55 area, broke 15.45, today the low of day was 15.44 even lower by a penny and managed to bounce higher.
A break of 15.44 can increase the probabilities of lower prices and a key area being broken for silver. I dont see it happening this week however with the short holiday week and being down several days in a row I suspect it manages to bounce higher.
Gold is getting closer to the 1162 area with it hitting a low today of 1165.
Next week should be pretty interesting to see if we get lower prices.
I would not be personally buying any sort of coins whether it was investment or for collecting reasons; not with the increased probabilities of lower prices setting up from here.
|
| |
Replies: 5,649 / Views: 461,315 |
To participate in the forum you must log in or register.
Disclaimer: While a tremendous amount of effort goes into ensuring the accuracy of the information contained in this site, Coin Community assumes no liability for errors. Copyright 2005 - 2026 Coin Community Family- all rights reserved worldwide. Use of any images or content on this website without prior written permission of Coin Community or the original lender is strictly prohibited.
Contact Us | Advertise Here | Privacy Policy / Terms of Use
|
| Coin Community Forum |
© 2005 - 2026 Coin Community Forums |
| It took 0.77 seconds to rattle this change. |
 |
|
| |
| |
First Page
Previous Page
Posted 06/14/2015 4:06 pm
