What Happens To Gold And Silver Next? Look Out Below?

well good then, you are learning. :)

busy day on my end but I want to repeat later on what one wants to see going forward and some of the scenarios we could see.

Just a few points here.

Gold pretty much had a gap up and ran higher all day. It ran all day and closed at the highs. Same deal with silver, which broke out today in big fashion and caught up with gold.

I did notice the miners also had a gap up today and managed to close the day on the lows, signs of a reversal in price that is coming.

Very briefly here-

Expect a pull back of some sort. How deep it is, how much, have no clue.

The best scenario for gold and silver is that they remain range bound, that the pull back is shallow and that this happens for some time, allow the move up or the b/o that occurred to let that move be digested over time rather than via price.

The other scenario that could happen is after some pull back, prices start to set a series of lower highs and lower lows, indicating that gold and silver want to move lower. This could happen and it is entire possible that the first b/o areas on gold and silver are tested.

In other words, some of these gaps might be filled on the way down. From a purely technical stand point, expressed by price, this would not be surprising nor would it necessarily mean the move up is done. sometimes these gaps or b/o areas get re-tested and price bounces from there and moves out higher, breaking out of a range.

Remember too, we do have plenty of overhead resistance or supply and I am not talking about physical gold or silver but price. These will be areas from the past where sellers and buyers show up, in this case sellers will be present.

So pay attention to how and in what manner gold and silver act in the coming days, it will give us clues about who is in control, the buyers or sellers.

please refer to our chart from our last update to see where we were and how we broke out to better understand how break outs and ranges work.

On the gold chart I have illustrated the gap up, look for the white arrow, right there is the gap up today. is this going to set up as the new range? Time will tell.


With silver we can see the clear big gap up that helped break out silver. At the white arrow, there is our gap. As with gold, will the lower end of this gap set the lower end of a new range? Again, time will tell.

Finally, I want to show you the GDX miner ETF. It has been on an absolute tear these past 5 days. Straight up buying and accumulation and got pretty gappy today which probably means with the reversal today, that the buyers are tired for now and ran into sellers. What is impressive tho is the accumulation by market participants.

How do we know this? We use volume, after price, to determine how active participants were and what they were doing. This is how financial institutions and market participants leave another sort of "foot print". Accumulation happens when volume increases from the preceding day.

Please refer to the lower part of the chart where the bars are, you will see on the far left in red it says "volume."

I have placed a white arrow at the first volume bar. On 2/3 volume came in at 120 million shares. the next day, 2/4, volume came in at 122 million and on 2/5 volume came in at 129 million shares. That is called accumulation, as each day, volume increased.

I havent seen gold and silver miners do this in LONG time as in years. In fact last time I saw this happen was when silver and gold were in and starting their up trends. So with the price action and volume, we can say the market wants these miners and is putting money to work here.

Now, we have two gaps here. They are marked out with the white arrows. Also notice the price action for today, notice the "L" shape? that shows the price action for today, marked out by a high of day, which was 17.90 and the low of day was 17.44 and the final price for today, which was 17.47. Clearly the buying ran out of steam as GDX closed out at the lows.

In most cases, this means the start of a pull back and the buyers are tired and I would think that, seeing that the miners have been in a downtrend, that is completely normal to find areas where sellers step in.

This again tho, before a determination can be made, has to be allowed to play out. Which gap are we going to go into? How deep will it be? Again, time and price action will give us clues.

So there you have it, that is how we stand. If I missed something or something doesn't make sense, let me know, I am rushing to put this together as I have other things to attend too but I wanted to get this out, been a pretty interesting start and end of last week in terms of price action.


please see the corresponding charts below here

whats going to matter is the coming days and weeks. This will be a process in itself and nothing ever changes.

The element of time is one of the most important factors in understanding what happens with price.

As an example, as I mentioned yesterday, the GDX reversal is playing out now. Into the gap it goes. How far tho? Is GDX going to go into the gap and bounce around the 17.12 area? Or is it going to breach that gap and dip way lower? Who knows, only time will allow us to see what happens.

Buymyemu, which asset we talking?

Buymyemu-

I dont see any specifics on GDX for any gaps right at 13.50 where it would get filled, the only thing close I see is 1/26 there was a gap up with the low end of the gap at 13.52.

In this case tho the gaps we focus on are the ones where this move started from or where it has broken out of.... which looks like we are going lower on the GDX by the manner in which it closed today, at the lows and we are already into that gap, which again doesn't surprise me.

when you get a lot of gaps, things get sloppy and messy.

Well gold is $7 over your mark in after hours yup. I wonder if the grilling Yellen got by Warren had anything to do with it. She couldn't answer how JPMorgan will quickly dissolve and breakup in case of failure as required by dodd frank. I felt like I was watching a rerun of the planned parenthood ceo running in circles during her congressional hearing. I can't believe how big JPMorgan is now relative to how big Lehman Brothers was when it failed. I have a feeling pm's are about to soar! Buy, buy, buy everyone!

In this amateur's opinion, yesterday was a good sign. Silver started going lower in the AM, , giving back recent gains as it had done MANY times before. But later in the day it bounced back nicely, as if to say "not this time" And now today POS and POG are up substantially. I am no expert, and of course I could be wrong, but maybe FINALLY now the downtrend is over. I sure hope so.

say it ain't so.

As someone who enjoys collecting as a hobby, I have enjoyed lower prices. It's a bit like learning the price of movie tickets is going up, and I don't sell movie tickets. My favorite day was still that Sunday where prices were in the $13.80 range. Oh well, I'm glad for those that want higher prices.