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Replies: 5,649 / Views: 461,156 |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1590 Posts |
I'm glad I don't make my money this way. Can you imagine what would happen if "the Big Boys" short the market? Or; if all the fear goes away? What happens if people become more confident in the future?
The market(s) used to be driven by REAL supply and demand. Now it is all perception. Perception is an emotive driven device. I should know, I use to make my living changing the perceptions of people I was interviewing/INvestigating~
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3546 Posts |
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Pillar of the Community
Australia
7096 Posts |
I know of at least one Gold Mine here in Aus that has ramped up its exploration programme already. The spot price for Gold seems to be going ballistic at the moment. It could be just a "Flash in the Pan" and just fizzle out as usual or it could be the start of a serious upward trend. Either way it is interesting seeing what is happening at the moment .
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3349 Posts |
Do the economic pundits ever learn anything useful from past performance? Even though they think this time will be different, downturns have never cured selfish behavior. If you entice big borrowers with cheap money they'll churn it to raise their stock value. Not invest in their future. Big buybacks happened in 2007, died in 2008-9, and have roared back to record levels over the last 5 years. The bubble stock value pumps up bonuses and options, and is wiped out in a market plunge over a few weeks, leaving corporations faced with paying back the splurge by issuing new stock and bonds at the lowered price. GE is case in point. http://seekingalpha.com/article/295...ock-buybacksNegative interest rates are weak sauce compared to juicy quantitative easings. They're more an admission of defeat than a useful method to stop the negative momentum. Like holding your hands up on a roller coaster.
"Two minutes ago I would have sold my chances for a tired dime." Fred Astaire
Edited by thq 02/11/2016 2:38 pm
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Valued Member
Canada
312 Posts |
Couldn't help myself....pulled the trigger on 50 ounces of Silver....Poured bars,coins and one Round :)
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
862 Posts |
May you live in interesting times:)
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
3789 Posts |
As a trader, honestly, what she says means ZERO to me. I just follow the markets reaction, THAT is what is important.
With that thought in mind, it is clear the market does not like Yellen nor what she says, which is OK, We are in a downtrend so we keep selling the market short.
Take note tho, the central banks are losing any authority they had over the markets. The BIGGEST sign of this was when the Bank of Japan tried to kill their Yen and guess what, the MARKET has ignored the attempt of the BOJ to inflate things by the mere fact that it bought up the Yen again and it now stands HIGHER than when the BOJ announced they wanted to go with negative rates.
clearly the central banks have lost their authority and markets are doing what they should, run their course and reprice things.
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
3789 Posts |
as we run into the close of the day here-
look at GDX once again losing steam. Look at gold losing steam.
the buyers are EXHAUSTED with the big gap up, I mean that was a big gap up. There was a TON of money made in gold just in the few hours today at the start.
However, the real concern is gold enter that gap and fills it, would be entirely possible.
Going forward we are going to see how strong gold is. It is possible we fall hard and dip hard or it is possible we just test the lower end of the gap and chop around.
Whatever the case, I would prefer to see some sort of pull back to let things re-set. Let gold digest the move with either time or price and then proceed to move out higher to make this upward move stronger and less volatile.
It is good to see gold at yearly highs, one buys high to sell higher with some sort of protection in case the move either fizzles out or takes longer.
Just take it day by day...
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Pillar of the Community
United States
964 Posts |
Platinum cheaper than Gold! Why is that? I thought they were always neck and neck? What is your take, Yup?
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Valued Member
Canada
312 Posts |
HUGE Dip tommorow guaranteed because I just bought today ......lol
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
3789 Posts |
@Mr Click
yea I am not sure. Just looking from a price action stand point, the PMs are like this:
1- Gold. uptrend, downtrend broken, at yearly highs
2- Silver and Platinum running neck and neck for 2nd place. In a short term time frame, both are at 3 months highs but NOT at yearly highs, they are lagging gold big time.
3- ? leaving this for either silver or plat, TBA...
4- Forth and last place goes to Palladium, which is kind of funny. You all might recall when silver, gold and plat were acting weak and going lower, Palladium was actually trying to break higher and was higher for a bit until it also rolled over.
Now look at it, it rolled over months back and right now, its not even anywhere close to breaking out even at 3 months when you compare to silver and plat which are at least at 3 month highs.
Why? I have no clue, I did notice this tho, that the other two metals, pal and plat just lagging here.
Again, I have no clue but I will say this. Commodities hinge on the old supply and demand. The other thing is this and I know this to be fact: correlations come and go. Sometimes things rise in tandem, other times they run independently.
It could be right now we are seeing gold decoupling from all the other metals because the market perceives gold is priced right and the better asset for the coming time period ahead, remember, markets work in the FUTURE.
That fits with what I am seeing in the market, the "safety trade" right now, which is US Treasuries at yearly highs, the japanese Yen at yearly highs (safe haven currency) and we have gold now at yearly highs. The market is parking money here and the buying is real. Yearly highs, or 52 week highs indicate real buying, the start of a trend and these tend to continue to trend higher over time until the trend is done.
Perhaps in time, gold will drag up the other PMs up with it too, I have seen that before where commodities start to rise in tandem with other commodities but this is again, not a rule set in stone. As I have said repeatedly, correlations come and go all the time in markets.
Just as an example, Silver is not at yearly highs, not even close yet. I have seen many times over the years silver run higher while gold did nothing only to later see silver fizzle out. So was gold leading silver? Or is silver leading gold now? Some say silver leads gold.
I say price action trumps all that opinion and talk which is why I adhere 100% to price action and to let things play out over time.
Based on the price action then, it is clear for whatever reason, the other PMs are not wanted for the time being except gold. I am sure in time we will know why but that usually happens much later, after an asset has been on the rise for a while.
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
2495 Posts |
If you're sitting on a pile of gold, I'd strongly recommend looking into trading it either for silver or platinum right now.
The historical ratios strongly favour this trade.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
669 Posts |
Just sold a couple rolls of ASEs to bootstrap a business startup; with how gold/silver prices may jump, I was so conflicted on the decision of whether to find an alternative funding method.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
7390 Posts |
A little pullback in premarket. Exactly what I want to see other than a rocket launch to $50+ so I can dump then wait for the big pullback in that senario lol. Hopefully todays pullback stays small to digest the gains of the week then a push back up early next week above the highs of this week. Rinse and repeat over the next few weeks with small pullbacks then bigger pushes going ever higher 
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
3789 Posts |
pretty much expected here, a pull back.
Key will be if gold breaks the 1196 area to start.
a preferred scenario is that gold digests this move over time, by going sideways, staying range bound and the longer, the better. Then after this range, seeing we are in an uptrend, it should continue to climb here from here.
we could also correct by price and that would bring some violent moves down, something that wouldnt be out of the question either.
For now, buyers are now in control. Watch the gold miners as well to get clues, GDX would be a good proxy to follow.
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Replies: 5,649 / Views: 461,156 |