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 Replies: 5,649 / Views: 461,140 |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
606 Posts |
For a lot of us, we either collect as a hobby or stack for the long term. With this in mind, lots of us would prefer paying as little as possible to collect or stack. Who knows where prices will be in twenty or thirty years, but an uptrend in 2016 doesn't have much impact except for making a hobby or stack more expensive.
I enjoy following your presentation of technicals as you present the information well and it's interesting. I'm also happy for those that are nearing retirement where higher prices, if in fact they are going higher, would be beneficial. Keep up the great work and time you put into your posts.
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
3049 Posts |
Yup: I'm pretty excited gold has shot up... but for a different reason... I'm not buying gold.. I'm selling.... the GSR has hit above 80... and for me... no matter what the price is or where the price is going... that's the signal for me to do a swap... and so I did today!
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Valued Member
Canada
343 Posts |
AgCoinAu. Good to see you did the swap - wish I could do the same but I have a lot less gold than silver and I've been able to DCA my gold down more effectively than silver so I don't really want to let it go at this point. If anything I'm waiting for a reversal (which may be a long time down the road) . . . where I can swap my Ag for Au.
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
3049 Posts |
Aghawk - wish I could say I had a lot as well... but regrettably it was only a few ounces. Swapping really isn't difficult to do.. all it means is that you sell one metal and buy the other. You could do both at one location such as at a coin store or jewelery store or one of those "we buy" kind of places... it's really up to you and the premiums you wish to pay.
For me when buying a lot of either gold or silver I like being in place that's safe and has security cameras and I KNOW the material is legit. So usually on the buy side it's at my local LCS. But I can save a bit of money selling the material privately.
For more GSR discussion (which I would love to have) please check out the thread I created in the main forum... YUP had done a LOT of hard work talking about price action and when a good time to get in for gold and silver on this thread and I don't really want to hijack it...
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Valued Member
Canada
343 Posts |
Thanks for the info on the other thread re GSR - will check it out. Had no intention of hijacking this thread. Apologies.
I'm not a subscriber to TF Metals Forum and don't know if anyone else here is but seems like he feels that Gold and Silver are being set up for another bloodbath. Guess we'll have to wait and see.
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
3789 Posts |
For this week, we want to see if gold breaks the low of day for Friday. That low was 1221.20, a break of that sets up for lower prices.
it does not mean the uptrend is done either. Remember, we have a TON of overhead supply, expressed via price, above us, so sellers will be present. as I always say, "price has memory".
I would expect also a sort of pull back or slow down in miners. this is not a bad thing and doest mean, again, that the uptrend is just done and over with.
I cant stress enough how selling and bumpy ride ahead should be expected. We will see how strong the buyers are in the coming days.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
Gold broke the Friday LOD, 1221. This puts in motion the move for gold to go lower. Remember we are still in a range at this point so we need to see if this results first in gold testing the 1190s areas. If that happens we need to wait and see what the next move is.
our proxy, GOLD also going lower today after breaking out and following through last week. It is now below its b/o point from Thursday.
The coming days are going to tell us how deep this pull back is so it will be a day by day approach to paint the picture. One thing tho, as I have been saying, I didnt think it would be to the moon with gold, as we have plenty overhead supply, again I am talking in terms of price, levels were sellers are present. As we run into those areas it will be bumpy and choppy.
Be patient and always manage the risk in case this move peters out.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
606 Posts |
So the uptrend might be over already?
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
@MontanaCMR
no, not likely. Trends dont just die out immediately, remember how long we have watched gold go down,, for many years here? Upt rends work in the exact same way and the buyers, hitting yearly highs, did not buy gold just to get it to yearly highs and just roll over.
I think tho, overhead supply is going to give gold hiccups on the way up for starters, if I have time ill get a chart up to show the levels ahead.
The other factor right now is we are seeing a sort of counter trend move in many world equity markets so money is flowing to other assets which should be expected considering the price action we have seen in the past few weeks.
So no, the uptrend is not done, dead or over. I am guessing, and watch me be wrong, but the ride up for gold will be bumpy and as I had written on the weekend, will bring people in droves saying "see its a head fake", not believing the current uptrend
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Pillar of the Community
United States
7390 Posts |
Gold up 11.40 currently in after hours. A good sign
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
In a shorter time ,,, gold is over yesterdays high.. a shift once again in the direction.
Our proxy,, GOLD,, another fresh 52 high b/o, uptrend continues. one interesting observation here is yesterday this old miner started out with weakness at the open and all day it was steady bought up and pretty much closed flat, so we can say the buyers remain in control of the miners.
a fair amount of back and forth for some time and then a move higher is the scenario wanted for those who want higher prices for gold.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
Looking at the action today, gold managed to go above yesterdays HOD, hitting 1229 today. Shorter time frame wise, gold is moving higher. A bit of back filling, back and forth remains again the better looking scenario, let gold do nothing and digest the gains from last week. 1264 on gold will should bring higher prices as this would be the new yearly high.
The miners looked good tho today some weakness appeared. During the day they started to turn lower until the final hour, just as the market went lower, the miners picked up the steam, GDX has a break out today. Looking out our proxy GOLD, it made fresh 52 highs today, which is good price action and there is no doubt it remains in a downtrend. It did have weakness through out the day but again, as the final hour came around, the miners caught a bid to remain higher.
It would appear that before going higher, the miners do want to take some sort of rest but we will see.
We talked about what I am terming "the trifecta"... which is the safe havens for 2016, a theme that looks to stick around for this year, and that is a strong yen, strong US long bond and gold. Gold we know its near its yearly highs and the Yen and US long bond also are doing the same thing.
We'll keep looking briefly at these two, the Yen and US 20 year note as further proxies to identify and measure how long the flight to safety remains by the market.
Finally there is everyone's favorite, silver. it really did nothing today in terms of price, it didnt break yesterdays HOD nor did it break it. Instead it looks like it is sitting on the lower end of the range we have currently.
Until it breaks 16, we can safely say this is sitting on the lower end of the range. we'll see what tomorrow brings and whether it holds down here.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
just briefly here-
Gold, as I have been saying, is where its at. This is where the most money is and will be made and where the strong uptrend exists.
We can see gold has followed through today, on a shorter time from with a higher high over yesterday. Yearly highs come in again if it were to break 1264.
Gold miners, our proxies, continue to remain strong, GOLD has made yet another 52 high. Do you see the power of the trend, this time the uptrend, prices continue to push higher. This stock broke out last week, on 2/18 and has continued to push higher since its broke out from its 52 highs.
The GDX also broke out yesterday and followed up with a gap up today.
Lots of money is in and coming into the gold stocks and gold. The uptrend is real. Remember also, at some point, there will be a pull back in prices as continued rises eventually need some sort of retracement. Its interesting to note that there was definite weakness in miners and yet as things change in the market, that was put off for now...
However, overall, the price action is acting as it should, continued push higher from 52 highs, pull backs occur and the price rises again... rinse and repeat.
Silver really is lagging here and pretty weak in my opinion. It has made a higher high over yesterday and has managed to bounce from its lower end. However it has given up gains already and just is really lagging gold here, not even being pulled up by gold.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
just a note here, as gold and gold miners weaken right now as I type this, take a look at one of the STRONGEST sectors in the market right now, the Gold industry, take a look at all the gold mining stocks hitting 52 highs today
ABX
AEM
AU
FNV
GOLD
HMY
KGC
LSG
MUX
NG
SBGL
there should be no doubt in any ones mind where the money is flowing to and why one wants to buy assets at yearly highs, as they start their moves.
This list is fresh from just 11 minutes ago and shows where market leadership is and where the money is flowing, it at gold.
Finally, do not be surprised if these stocks and gold goes lower from here. We are in a high period of volatility, there is overhead supply in the mining stocks and gold, so it will be bumpy.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
606 Posts |
Lately it seems like stock market goes up, gold and silver goes down........stock market goes down, gold and silver goes up.
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Replies: 5,649 / Views: 461,140 |
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Posted 02/20/2016 9:42 pm
