What Happens To Gold And Silver Next? Look Out Below?

So regarding mining stocks, many are in a uptrend.

You provided a great description on how to acquire assets. How would you go about selling something like a mining mutual fund that has enjoyed a nice run. Do you phase out. My concern is that if I wait too long for a downtrend, any gains would be gobbled up.

@yup Thank you for the recommendations. Went with the SIL junior ETF. I did have a question for you though. I like physical silver for security, but not sure it will go up as much as more stock in the miners. Would the money be better in the miners or physical possession? Your thoughts would be appreciated on one verses the other. Also, if there is another major down turn in the markets, are the stock in miners a safe haven? If these are dumb questions, I apologize. New to all this.

@MontanaCMR-

Yes we can agree to disagree. For one thing tho, as far as markets, correlations do come and go, always. IF it was that easy to say "oh X asset is correlated to Y asset, so then all we have to do is follow Y asset and we will be fine".

In markets, it is NEVER easy like that and there never is a single "tell" or correlation that provides the answers and stays 100% consistent. This trips up everyone, even I had to learn that correlations come and go so I speak from experience, been there, done that.

.. and how can I say without a doubt that silver is not in an uptrend yet? Simple. It has not hit a yearly high to confirm that. Once it hits a yearly high, we can say without a doubt, as expressed by price, that it is in an uptrend. However, silver has not done that. Price does not lie and when assets hit yearly highs they are without a doubt, trending upward, this never ever changes and never will.

the process with silver will be the same as with bonds, equities, currencies and other commodities, to determine and see how it progresses.

if you go back in our thread, when we talked gold, we talked about how it was breaking key trend lines in price, or levels. As it progressed upward through these levels and held, you might recall that after some time, it marched right into the yearly highs and broke through them. When that was hit, it confirmed the prior price action of breaking levels upward.

With silver we are seeing the same thing, albeit at a much slower pace. Nonetheless, the price remains and has been constructive. You can clearly see in the past few weeks, when silver broke lower out of the range, instead of imploding lower, the buyers pushed it back TWICE into the range and back into the high end of the range. This price action tells us the buyers are in control. I mean what more proof do you need?

Now what is left is for silver to hold these levels and build on them, pushing higher little by little. This sort of buying and price action in turn leads to yearly highs, which again, are your absolute, without a doubt, 100% confirmation of an uptrend.

Can you see why, tho, we do not assume correlations are a given each and every single time. Suppose you started buying silver instead of gold because you thought it would immediately run up. Well, we can clearly see that buying gold over silver has been the more profitable choice, just by following price action and not spending time thinking about correlations. Markets are always like this. FIRST, comes price then everything else. It has been like this since the day financial markets opened up.

in a later post we will discuss, at least I will try too and put a simple process, as simple and super easy way to understand when its time to jump off a trend and book profits. All up trends eventually stop and die and booking profits is necessary in markets AND there is no reason to stay on a trend as it dies off just because one worries that things might change.

I appreciate your kind comments. IF I can get one or two souls to grasp really how SIMPLE markets out, that the most important element is price action, and how EASY it is to read price action and that nothing really matters except price action, then mission accomplished.

If I can get someone else to make money on their own and win at the game of markets, then thats a good feeling that the worlds greatest game has yet another person or persons that was able to profit from it.

just quickly-

Silver- really putting in some work today. Made a higher high over yesterday. You see the LOD today was 16.02? What have we been saying and talking as our range? upper end has been 16.

Notice today how the LOD was 16.02? What does this mean? We can see that for now, that upper range we had at first, NOW is acting as support.

if this continues, we should be seeing a new range setting up, with 16 as the lower end. Let us see how the rest of the week progresses and if that 16 level is challenged on the down side.

Gold looks like its taking a breather. Again, lets see if it pushes higher tomorrow, over the HOD of today or moves lower.

We want to see if we are going to seeing new ranges set up OR the continued back and filling we have seen, with testing of the lower ranges.... and yes gold remains in an uptrend.

Have been reading up on some gold mining stock till I'm really confused now. Holdings, debt, cost per oz to recover, proven gold recovery and potential recovery. I'm really bewildered now. Barrick seems to have the most production per season, but also seems to have a lot of debt. Newmont is #2, has less debt but also a lot less production. And my understanding of Sandstorm Gold is they just have a type of override, but not sure how far out into the future the agreement is they have to buy gold at a cheaper price. And all the reports contain way too much information to the point a lot of it I don't comprehend. I checked out McEwen mining, but seems like a lot of their ground is not in production yet and I've read it takes a lot of $ to get a mine up producing. So guess my question, is Barrick Gold Corp financially sound enough to survive some major financial upheaval? I really like the price of their stock and the quantity of mines and gold per year produced but their debt is also large.
Thanks for all the advice here.
z

Thank you yup. After posting, I figured I was doing just what you had said most people do, reading too much into it; keep it simple. I will look for the thread on mining stocks.

Found it. Thank you yup. Got my pen and paper out to take notes. Charles Schwab site down, so go time to do some learning before jumping.

BE careful zack..some of the etf's produce a K-1 form....these can cost a lot of extra money at tax time...very complicated to work with..ask yup about em...they are a huge hassle...check your TAX implications for when you sell..some stocks are 28%..some are as high as 35%!!!!!!