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 Replies: 5,643 / Views: 459,338 |
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
3789 Posts |
Interesting week for the PMs.
No follow up price action to the upside on silver and gold from Fridays move and the chances of increased selling pressure are huge.
Should the prices bounce, I should say continue the bounce,, I expect then again another range bound price action until the market decides the next move.
REMEMBER...the longer the price stays in a narrow range.. when it moves out of the range,, whether up or down,,, it will be swift, fast and hard.
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Pillar of the Community
United Kingdom
616 Posts |
7676
I understand your perspective and as a trader it is very logical and well thought out. But being a trader requires far more discipline than being an accumulator. I dabble in paper PMs from time to time but have decided I rather just trade stocks because a drop in a PM ETF for whatever reason is more troubling to me than the drop in a company stock and I hate shorting anything. Logical no but doesn't matter because that is my reaction. As a result I have decided to stack some physical PMs. I know I pay a big premium over paper PMs but I don't include my stack as part of my financial assets it is more like a clloection of baseball cards to me. Sure it may have a lot of value but I don't count on it. For me this is the most comfortable way for me to own PMs and I get the enjoyment of collecting something. I am sure most everyone approaches stacking in there own unique way and this is just mine. If all goes well I will wake up one day and realize I have a field of money that I never counted on just sitting there waiting to be harvested.
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Valued Member
United States
493 Posts |
I need to recant a bit of my post from about three weeks ago, Caterpillar laid off 460 workers, said miner weakness, kind of surprised me, I thought current PM prices could sustain, maybe overproduction and more mining development than we would need, further pushing down PM prices into a slough or stackers dream. I think corn is going to go down to $5 this year, probably even $4.50 if the crops do well.
Edited by everything
04/08/2013 10:05 pm
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
Star-
Well I think the most important thing is that if how you do it, in this case buying physical silver, if that's what you feel comfortable with, that's what is important.
I do think, that if one purchases silver and gold coins that have that premium built in, it will help as the prices come down. That's one reason why most, in fact I would say 90% of my collection is proof silver and gold with a small smattering of BU world silver and gold.
However, my biggest intention with this thread was to sound a warning that lower prices are ahead, much lower and that buying each and every single dip will not be the best strategy. .... rather to let the prices come on down hard before even starting to nibble.
As a trader I have come learn and understand prices, patterns and the markets behavior. Everything at this stage tells me that this is a strong downtrend that isn't going to reverse course anytime soon. Sure, the prices will bounce and come into support but we aren't going to climb ahead... but the institutional and fund money is NOT there to support gold and silver going forward. Now the big money is being made selling silver and gold, again I say as in selling short. Thats where the big money is right now.
Furthermore, the next issue is- after prices reach a point where the market decides it has discounted the metals enough... what happens next? Do we get a rebound? OR do we get a period of time where the metals do absolutely nothing, and just chop around and do nothing... so buying right and not being underwater is key IF one is looking at PMs as part of savings/investment.
Now, I am with you on the collecting part, 100%. I really enjoy setting out and displaying my proof silver and gold coins and learning their history..... and you can never get enough of silver and gold coins lol
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Valued Member
Canada
78 Posts |
yup...you bears had this thing last week until US employment numbers came out on Friday. Once it came out and became full digested..it was a body blow to the groin for the bears. Silver and gold would have been in trouble for the rest of the month if US would have shown a 300k job creation number.
I think people have to really evualuate how good equities will perform over the next year. Reality is US growth is still really really slow. QE is has to stay put...and that is good for PM's.
Nice to see bears get a small body blow to kidneys today...they were getting too cocky.
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Valued Member
United States
200 Posts |
I don't think there is going to be a big movement in prices either way. The PMs are going to be range bound for some time now.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
I want to correct you on one point- there is no such thing as a bear or bull,,, that is useless gibberish used to sell financial headlines and to confuse everyone. I am neither of those.
I am a trend following/momentum trader. The PMs are in a serious downtrend and continue to be so until they exhibt a chance in pattern, which will not be over night.
To me, gold and silver price wise are acting exactly as they should.
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Valued Member
Ireland
131 Posts |
I shall correct the 'correction' above: bulls, bears and stags have long been terms connected with the stock markets. Long as in centuries.
Norm
Edited by Spikey Norman
04/09/2013 4:51 pm
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
yes exactly that is why I said financial headlines. In case anyone was ignorant, even in the 1920 the financial media used terms as those,,, which mean NOTHING.
Behind the scenes not even the professionals use them terms themselves unless they are showboating on the media or talking their book, all to excite the unknowing public.
only suckers use those terms and the unknowing. We scoff at such terms and their use in headlines (BTW trading desks and firms,IF they use CNBC or Bloomberg they are used as "background noise to make jokes and poke fun at each and everyday lol).... *wink*
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2189 Posts |
Bull and Bear market "Which have no meaning" What color is the sky in your world? Behind the scenes,In front of the scenes,Side ways, up side down, Yes! these two words do have a meaning,I guess it has meaning to the rest of the world besides you, Pointing ones finger and saying ignorant is very unprofessional and very immature
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Valued Member
Ireland
131 Posts |
Funnily enough I never expected those inside the industry to use those terms themselves and am not in the slightest surprised to find they regard their use as either archaic, meaningless or beneath them and laughable.
I do agree that neither bear nor bull are really applicable to most traders these days, far easier to spot and follow a trend with all the relevant safeguards that can be put in place along the way and/or swing-trade with the advent of algorithmic trading than take a steadfast view on anything. I do however think the terms still retain a level of validity such as in the case of those that do form a long term opinion such as Jim Sinclair or even those that constantly try to talk the market in a certain direction such as Jon Nadler. As for the media and financial headlines .... well, I'm sure many a poor man has read them and taken notice whilst I doubt many rich men would lay much credit at their door.
It's good to know CNBC and Bloomberg are just as much regarded as a joke inside the industry as they are outside it.
Oh well, I'll gladly leave you to your thread. Best wishes with your trades, both PM's and any/all other markets in which you dabble.
Norm
(proud to be a sucker and who knows one day I might learn to type without spelling mistakes lol)
Edited by Spikey Norman
04/09/2013 8:32 pm
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2543 Posts |
Quote:
The PMs are in a serious downtrend and continue to be so until they exhibt a change in pattern, And you can take that to the bank folks. Pm's will continue to go down until they go up  Hope you guys all took the advise in this thread and did not buy " the dip " at $26 + because it is back up @$28 now |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
IF you read the first original post I did in February, I said as one of the posts, that it would not be out of the ordinary to see a retracement of a price point.
This is what has happened, and I am not one bit surprised. I don't want to say I told you so, but when it drops again, and it will, I will quote what you said to show you and everyone else the mistake you made in buying the dip.
What you said is a very very very common mistake committed by the buying public, they see a bounce and feel its an all clear. Then weeks later, months later, they will grumble how if they had known it was going to go LOWER, they wouldnt have bought lol
:D but hey its your money, hope you sell the bounce lol
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Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
Quote:
Hope you guys all took the advise in this thread and did not buy " the dip " at $26 + because it is back up @$28 now Regardless of your view for the long term, looking at a single day or even week doesn't make a trend. Even Enron had gains during its collapse of an example of how a short period of time doesn't set a trend On the flip side you could say its down 8 cents today so it must be crashing down and its time to sell everything. |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2543 Posts |
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IF you read the first original post I did in February, I said as one of the posts, that it would not be out of the ordinary to see a retracement of a price point. Exactly, six pages of " It'll go down until it goes up again " or "It'll go up until it goes down again. " Silver is trending down, it'll keep trending down until the market decides to trend back up. Really ? Six pages ? I probably shouldn't criticize but you sure do go on and on about very little. What exactly are your qualifications ? Are you a trader, do you work on wall street ? What is the name of the firm that you work for ? Where do you work out of ? New York ? L.A. your bedroom. Are you a certified financial advisor, an MBA ? You have said on occasion after occasion that you are a " trend trader ", who do you trade for ? You seem to have the ubiquitous empty jargon down pat and are certainly not shy about flaming anyone who disagrees with you. Yet you have never outlined to us , what makes you " the expert " Inquiring minds want to know.  |
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Posted 04/08/2013 09:03 am
